Putin May Escalate War in Ukraine on Victory Day

Russia will likely issue doomsday threats against the West as Biden quietly increases the US nuclear alert status in response to increased risk of Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Following the Russian withdrawal from northern and northeastern Ukraine early last month, a number of military analysts predicted that Russian President Vladimir Putin would try to achieve a military victory in the Battle of the Donbass and then declare a cease-fire and end to the war before Russia’s Victory Day parade on May 9th.

Russia enjoys a number of advantages given that it is being fought in open fields rather than urban terrain. Russian forces are much better trained in maneuver warfare than the Ukrainian forces and enjoy superiority over them in terms of tanks, airpower and heavy artillery with the battle being fought very close to the Russian border and adjoining friendly territory, shortening their supply lines. In addition, the U.S. Department of Defense recently released their estimates on the number of troops killed and wounded in the war and, as I suspected, Ukrainian casualty estimates are quite similar to their estimates of Russian troop losses with Ukraine much less able to replace their losses in men and material. Despite these advantages, Russian military forces have made surprisingly few military gains over the past few weeks. Thus, there is no longer any chance Russia will be able to capture the rest of the Donbass region by this date.