Trump’s Secret 28-Point Draft Peace Agreement to End Russo-Ukrainian War Revealed by the White House

Trump gives Zelensky until Thanksgiving to accept his peace deal while US threatens to cut intelligence and weapons shipments to Ukraine if he rejects it in what FT is calling an 'ultimatum.'

Russian President Vladimir Putin with President Donald Trump at their “Pursuing Peace” Summit held in Anchorage on August 15th.

November 24, 2025 Update—A US delegation led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with a Ukrainian delegation in Geneva this morning and opted to throw President Donald Trump’s outstanding 28-point peace plan in the trash agreeing to a new 19-point peace plan in Geneva that incorporates all of Ukrainian autocratic leader Volodymyr Zelensky’s maximalist demands for peace with Russia. The idea that the leader of the free world would unilaterally surrender to an autocratic leader of a country with a population nearly a dozen times smaller than ours is embarrassing but that’s what happened, meaning that the US has never been farther from ending the US proxy war with Russia in Ukraine than at any time during the Trump administration.

The White House released President Donald Trump’s new 28-point peace plan to end the war in Ukraine yesterday. It was formally presented to Ukraine yesterday morning. Trump’s motivations for issuing Ukraine the draft US peace plan were made clear with his statement earlier today. “Whether through a peace agreement or on the battlefield, Ukraine will lose the remaining parts of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) in any case, which is why it is included in the US peace plan as territories within the Russian Federation, Trump told Fox News on November 21. “They will lose this land in a very short time,” he said. The President’s comments seem to echo what he reportedly told Zelensky during his tumultuous White House meeting on October 17^th during which he basically told the Ukrainian autocrat that Ukraine’s defeat was inevitable and that Putin would destroy Ukraine unless he accepted Russia’s peace terms.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky initially rejected the Trump peace plan in favor of a cease-fire plan he worked out with the UK but after Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll and three US generals visited Kyiv on Wednesday to urge him to accept it, he has since said he is willing to consider it. As I suggested in my article a couple of days ago, this is the Trump-proposed version of a peace plan that originated late last month during discussions between US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and his Russian counterpart Kirill Dmitriev, who serves as the head of Russia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund. Russia has not said they have accepted it yet but they have said this is the most favorable US peace offer they have seen yet so it would appear they are favorable disposed to accept most of the provisions.

New revelations indicate that Trump’s peace plan includes a few key provisions sure to be unacceptable to Russia which were likely added at the behest of Ukraine which I have noted in my review of the terms below. One of the most troubling terms would seem to allow Ukraine to conduct long-range missile strikes against Russia with virtual impunity that could provoke another Russian invasion which by the terms of the agreement could then spark a decisive US military response that could lead to World War Three. Another major omission I found is that there is no ban on Ukraine’s retention of offensive strike systems with ranges over forty kilometers as previously suggested. The New York Post states that the agreement would force Ukraine to give up missiles that can strike Moscow but that does not seem to be reflected in any provisions of the 28-point peace plan below. There is no way Russia will accept any peace deal that does not force Ukraine to disarm itself of all its long-range offensive strike systems.

A US official interviewed by the New York Post confirmed Umerov was successful in getting the US to agree to a number of modifications of what was originally a joint US-Russian peace plan. “The plan was drawn up immediately following discussions with one of the most senior members of Zelenskyy’s administration, Umerov. So Umerov agreed to the majority of this plan, and he made several modifications to it, which we included and presented it to President Zelenskyy.”

The Post reported the agreement previously stated that “Ukraine will conduct a full audit of all aid received and create a legal mechanism to recover any errors found and punish those who illegally profiteered from the war.” However, Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine and former Defense Minister, Rustem Umerov was able to get that provision removed from the agreement prior to its release in the hopes of avoiding punishment and accountability for top members of the Zelensky regime including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky himself who were participants in Ukraine’s massive $100 million foreign aid embezzlement scandal.

Ukraine’s autocratic President, Volodymyr Zelensky, is under siege as he faces growing threats to his dictatorial rule both at home and from increasing Russian battlefield victories while President Trump is pressuring him for the third time to give up western Donetsk in exchange for peace with Russia.

The UK Independent is reporting that Zelensky is facing a growing rebellion over the scandal as his political opponents are calling for him to fire his longtime friend and Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak while Ukrainian ultra-nationalists are calling for the execution of members of his cabinet implicated in the scandal. He is facing increasing calls to form a government of national unity with opposition party leaders like former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko who I have been supporting to replace Zelensky since March 2022.

All of this is happening as Russia ramps up its multi-pronged military offensive with over 10,000 Ukrainian troops encircled in the Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad and Kupiansk pockets. In fact, Pokrovsk has already fallen to Russian troops and Russian President Putin announced the capture of Kupiansk earlier today. Russian forces are continuing to gain ground all along the frontline from Kharkiv in the north to Zaporizhia in the west. This is all the more remarkable given the fact that the Rasputitsa mud season has already begun making advances more difficult though Russian advances are greatly helped by the fact that the Russian troops likely now outnumber Ukrainian troops by 3.5 times.

Meanwhile, massive Russian drone and missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid mean that Ukrainian citizens are in for a very cold winter likely causing their impatience with Zelensky’s refusal to end the war to grow. This means he would lose in a landslide if a free and fair democratic election were held early next year in the event he decided to relent and hold an election which he cancelled in March 2024 remaining in power nearly two years past his constitutional term of office leading Russian officials to understandably denounce him as an illegitimate autocratic leader.

CBS News reported:

On Thursday, Zelenskyy met with U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll in Kyiv, and was presented with what he later characterized in a post on X as “points of a plan to end the war — [America’s] vision.” Zelenskyy said he outlined Ukraine’s key principles, and the two sides agreed to continue working on the plan’s provisions. A White House official told CBS News that Driscoll had two hours of meetings with Ukrainian officials, including 45 minutes of direct talks with Zelenskyy, which they described as “productive.” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement to CBS News: “This plan was crafted to reflect the realities of the situation, after 5 years of a devastating war, to find the best win-win scenario, where both parties gain more than they must give.”

Ukrainian President Voldoymyr Zelensky pictured with US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg in Kyiv, who has served as a longtime Ukrainian propagandist. Trump appointed Kellogg to negotiate a peace deal with Russia but when his 22-point peace plan was rejected by Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 8th, Kellogg quickly lost favor with Trump. Kellogg appears to have been iced out of peace negotiations due to the fact he has continued to parrot Ukrainian propaganda talking points that Russia is losing the war and suffering massive casualties while Russia is clearly winning the war on the battlefield.

As I reported in my last article, US Special Envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg was not allowed to be involved in the drafting of Trump’s previously secret new peace agreement and opted to leak the terms of the agreement before the White House wanted to leading him to announce his resignation mere hours later.

Trump’s 28-Point Peace Plan

Here are the elements of Trump’s peace plan reported by multiple sources including Newsweek magazine yesterday.

1. Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed.

Russia has long agreed to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence over eighty percent of its internationally recognized territory. Under the Istanbul Agreement of March 29, 2022, Russia agreed to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty over 93 percent of its former territory but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky foolishly rejected the deal under which Russia pledged to withdraw all of its troops from Ukraine’s prewar controlled territory.

2. A comprehensive [sic] and comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.

A non-aggression pact between the US and Russia is an idea that I have been calling for since 2019. This could take the form of a de-facto sphere of influence agreement where the US would pledge to stop interfering in the affairs of former Soviet republics apart from the Baltic states which are NATO members and Russia would pledge not to interfere in NATO member states.

3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries and NATO will not expand further.

This point addresses the root causes of the conflict as Russia has been requesting since before they issued their proposed draft mutual security agreements to the US and NATO which were issued in December 2021 in a last ditch attempt to avoid war with Ukraine. An end to NATO expansion in Eastern Europe and the acceptance of Russia’s minimum peace terms to end the war in Ukraine would eliminate any rationale for Russia to invade any of its neighbors.

4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.

This is an important point to do exactly what I have been arguing for since 2009 which is to conclude a compressive peace agreement with Russia resolving all of our areas of conflict and form a geostrategic partnership with Russia to effectively neutralize the Sino-Russian military alliance so as to effectively transform the international order from a bipolar international order into a trilateral international order. President Trump has also been wanting to achieve that since his 2016 presidential campaign only to be derailed from doing so by the Obama/Deep State Trump-Russia collusion hoax during his first term.

5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.

Zelensky has been asking for NATO-style Article V security guarantees but essentially those would take the form of a US/NATO commitment to resume harsh economic sanctions on Russia and to resume offensive strike weapon deliveries in the event of Russian aggression as noted in Article 10 of the peace plan below. Most people do not realize that Article V of the Atlantic Charter does not require the US to go to war against Russia or even to send troops to defend a NATO member state under attack so effectively these would in fact be Article V-like security guarantees.

6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.

Zelensky falsely claimed in January that the country’s military numbered 880,000, according to the Kyiv Independent. However, on Spetember 8th, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Syrsky revealed that Ukraine’s current armed forces consisted of just over 230,000 active-duty troops. But Ukraine is suffering net losses of 15,000 troops a month from troops killed in action, severely wounded and massive desertions so it likely has less than 200,000 troops in the field today to defend against a Russian force three and a half times larger. According to Ukrainian Memmber of Parliament Anna Skorokhod, nearly 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers have deserted since the war began which equates to twice as many troops as Ukraine has in the field today.

Russia would certainly accept a reduction in the size of the Ukrainian Army to 100,000 active-duty troops and 500,000 reserve troops in line with my June 2022 peace proposal in The National Interest which they supported. However, they likely will not sign any peace agreement that doesn’t cap the size of Ukraine’s active-duty military forces at the current level of 200,000 or less with 400,000 reserve troops. Indeed, it's uncertain that Ukraine could even maintain a military force of that modest size in peacetime. That said, it’s possible that Russian leaders understand that after they have successfully inflicted nearly 2.3 million Ukrainian military casualties including over 856,000 killed in action, Ukraine is incapable of fielding a force any larger in which case any arbitrary troop number caps on the Ukrainian armed forces may be seen by Moscow as no longer being necessary.

7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.

This is one of Russia’s most important demands to ensure the permanent neutrality of Ukraine outside of NATO. Having Ukraine return to its pre-2019 constitution has been a part of my peace proposals for the last two to three years. Including the ban on Ukrainian admission to NATO in the Atlantic Charter would be extremely beneficial to preventing the outbreak of a future military conflict between Russia and NATO as well.

8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.

This would realize Russia’s main war objective of not only keeping Ukraine out of NATO but expelling NATO troops and bases from Ukraine. As noted in my last article, this provision would scuttle the Anglo-French plan to deploy ‘a Reassurance Force’ of 20,000 British and French troops in central and western Ukraine to deter future Russian aggression.

Ukrainian F-16 fighter bombers, which according to former US Army Vice Chief of Staff General Jack Keene (USA Ret.) are being flown by retired USAF combat pilots some of which have likely been killed in action fighting Russia in Ukraine.

9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.

It has been reported that this provision is being interpreted as a prohibition on the deployment of European fighters in Ukraine. This provision would effectively negate Zelensky’s recent arms deals with France to purchase 100 fighter jets and with Sweden to purchase another 150 fighter jets or alternatively ban them from deployment inside of Ukrainian territory potentially enabling them to be stationed in Poland. Russia will likely also insist on Ukraine giving up its potentially nuclear-capable F-16 fighter-bombers as well since the main reason for its invasion of Ukraine was to ensure Ukraine remained a nuclear-free buffer zone so Moscow would not be threatened with destruction from NATO nuclear-capable missiles or nuclear-capable bombers based in Ukraine with only ten minutes warning time.

10. US guarantee:

▪️ The US will receive compensation for the guarantee.

▪️ If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee.

▪️ If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked.

▪️ If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid.

This US security guarantee pledging a decisive coordinated US military response against a future Russian invasion of Ukraine would seem to leave open the possibility that the US could respond with military force to such an invasion up to and including a direct war with Russia that would signal the beginning of World War Three which is the exact opposite of what Trump pledged when he was campaigning for President in 2024. The wording of this provision seems to allow Ukraine free rein to bomb Russian cities with long-range missiles, apart from Moscow and St. Petersburg, following the signing of a peace deal. If such a war provoked another Russian invasion, the use of US military force against Russia could spark a nuclear exchange that could destroy the US and NATO. It’s unclear what financial or economic compensation the US intends to receive by giving Ukraine this security guarantee.

Axios is reporting that these multilateral security guarantees for Ukraine would only be in effect for a period of ten years but could be extended by mutual agreement.

The text, described as a parallel track to the proposed ceasefire framework, would establish a 10-year multilateral defence commitment, Axios reports. “The guarantees are intended to function as a long-term deterrent,” one US official told Axios. The proposal includes a joint mechanism for monitoring ceasefire violations and is designed to embed Ukraine’s security firmly within Western defence architecture, despite a formal ban on Nato accession as part of the US deal. The guarantees, which require signatures from Ukraine, the US, the EU, Nato, and Russia, are intended to last a decade and may be extended by mutual agreement. US officials have described the plan as a “major achievement” for Ukraine, providing protection in the absence of full Nato membership.

ABC News reported:

Even though the Trump administration plan calls for significant concessions from Ukraine, one of the security guarantees that will be provided to Ukraine is modeled on the principles of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Under the proposed plan, the U.S. and European allies would view an attack on Ukraine as an attack on the “transatlantic community,” according to a senior U.S. administration official. The senior official confirmed that one of those security guarantees is a NATO-style security guarantee, which means the U.S. and its allies could respond with military force if Russia attacks Ukraine in the future. That could be seen as a huge, unprecedented win for Ukraine and Zelenskyy, who has, for years, sought long-term, collective defense protection from NATO allies.

Other elements of this provision are important from the Russian perspective as it effectively gives Russia a security guarantee against any future Ukrainian attempt to retake control of the Donbass by military force as Zelensky vowed to do with regards to both the Donbass and Crimea in April 2021 sparking Russia’s invasion of Ukraine less than a year later. It also renders the US security guarantee moot if Ukraine launches missile strikes against Moscow or St. Petersburg “without case” though a noted above it does not nullify the US security guarantee if Ukraine launches unprovoked missile strikes against other Russian cities which would ensure another Russian invasion of Ukraine which presumably would cause the US to revoke its support for this agreement. That provision would seem to incentivize Zelensky or a future Ukrainian leader to start another war with Russia to get full US military support.

11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered.

Russia agreed to EU membership for Ukraine under the terms of the Istanbul Agreement the draft of which was initialed by members of both the Russian and Ukrainian delegations on March 29, 2022, so this provision would be acceptable to Moscow.

12. A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to:

a. The creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centers, and artificial intelligence.

b. The United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernize, and operate Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities.

c. Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas for the restoration, reconstruction and modernization of cities and residential areas.

d. Infrastructure development.

e. Extraction of minerals and natural resources.

f. The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.

One wonders what the cost to US taxpayers would be for this Ukrainian Development Fund but presumably Trump expects the Russians to pay $100 billion to fund it as suggested under Article 14, which of course they will never do. Trump has previously stated he would not agree to spend any US taxpayer funds on rebuilding Ukraine and has prided himself on cutting off US financial assistance to Kyiv since he became President saying from henceforth he will only sell arms to NATO for transfer to Ukraine.

13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:

a. The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis.

b. The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.

c. Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8.

Russia has demanded that all the 28,000 or so economic sanctions enacted on it by the Western powers since 2014 be lifted so this provision will likely not be accepted by them as it does not even commit to lift US sanctions on Russia. However, they will certainly welcome the provision for a long-term geostrategic economic partnership with the US which is something that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been seeking since he became Russia’s President over a quarter of a century ago. Russia has stated it is not interested in rejoining the G-8 given it includes so many of its greatest avowed enemies not just the US but the UK, France, Germany and Poland which sent tens of thousands of Polish Volunteer Legionnaires to fight Russian forces in Ukraine while former Deputy Under Secretary Stephen Bryen reported a couple of years ago that France sent an entire French Foreign Legion regiment to help defend Ukraine as well.

14. Frozen funds will be used as follows:

$100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine. The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen. The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.

This provision amounts to at least $100 billion in Russian reparations. There is no way Russia will agree to paying a single dime in reparations to Ukraine as they understandably believe the war was forced on them by NATO imperialist expansion and former President Joe Biden’s refusal to issue a written guarantee Ukraine would never join NATO which Putin told him in a call on December 7, 2021 was all he needed to call off the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia would likely only agree to commit to use their $300 billion in frozen funds in Western banks to rebuild those areas of Ukraine that have been annexed by Russia.

15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement.

This is key to ensure that Ukraine holds fair and free democratic presidential elections and disarms itself of all its long-range and medium-range offensive strike weapons while guarding against Ukrainian violations of the agreement, so this is a welcome provision.

16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.

This is a good provision providing that the US and its NATO partners reciprocate with a policy of non-aggression against the Russian Federation though its unclear how Russian law could be modified in such a way.

Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and then US President George HW Bush signing the landmark START I Treaty on July 31, 1991.

17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty.

This is an excellent provision if this is not a misstatement, which I believe it very likely is and that Trump intended to reference the New START Treaty rather than START I. The START I Treaty imposes limits of 6,000 warheads on the US and Russia. Accordingly, an extension of the 1991 START I Treaty rather than the New START Treaty (which caps each side at 1,550 treaty accountable strategic nuclear warheads) would allow the US to build up its strategic nuclear arsenal by nearly three times up from approximately 2,085 operational warheads today. I have long been calling for the US to expand its undersized and increasingly obsolescent nuclear arsenal by two to three times by redeploying our over 1,500 partially dismantled, undeployed strategic warheads in reserve as a hedge for the massive Russian and Chinese nuclear buildups we have witnessed over the past decade or so.

18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has threatened Ukraine may develop its own nuclear weapons if is unable to join NATO. Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal as part of the understanding reached between the US, UK, France, Russia and Ukraine under the terms of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. Accordingly, this is an important provision for Russia to prevent Ukraine from becoming a nuclear-armed state.

19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under the supervision of the IAEA, and the electricity produced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine — 50:50.

This provision is likely acceptable to Russia so long as the plant remains under Russian control. The 22-point Kellogg plan called for the nuclear plant to be handed over to US control which was an obvious non-starter for the Kremlin.

20. Both countries undertake to implement educational programs in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance of different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice:

a. Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.

b. Both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education.

c. All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited.

This is another important provision for Russia as it helps implement one of Russia’s key war aims which is Ukraine’s so-called ‘de-Nazification.’ This is one of the terms which was demanded by Soviet dictator Josef Stalin for the surrender of Nazi Germany and Russian President Putin has sought to paint the war in Ukraine as a kind of Second Patriotic War while continuing to describe it as a Special Military Operation implying that the war is being fought in defense of Russia’s strategic perimeter on Russian soil which is partially true. Russia has also demanded Ukraine protect its ethnic Russian minority and Russian speaking population by law including the Ukrainian Orthodox Church which is itself a breakaway sect from the Russian Orthodox Church which historically has been the predominant religion in Russia.

Zelensky is obviously not a ‘Nazi’, given the fact he is a Jew who grew up in a Russian-speaking home. However, he has certainly been co-opted by ultra-nationalist Ukrainian militias primarily the Azov Brigade which has been blackmailing him into pursuing hardline anti-Russian policies since they threatened to assassinate his wife if he continued his initial attempt to implement the Minsk II Agreement. While this provision does not specifically call for the disbandment of neo-Nazi political parties and militias, many of which have employed Nazi symbols, it is still likely acceptable to Moscow.

Institute for the Study of War map showing Russian advances in Ukraine as of November 20, 2025

21. Territories:

a. Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States.

b. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact.

c. Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions.

d. Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone.

The recognition of Crimea and the Donbass as part of Russia has been a key Russian demand. This provision would require Ukraine to give up the remaining territory it controls in Western Donetsk (constituting about 20-24 percent of Donetsk oblast), which would then become a demilitarized zone under Russian control, but does not provide for any international peacekeepers to police it. As currently written, this provision is likely unacceptable to Russia which will likely insist on its right to deploy its military forces to protect and defend all its territory.

That said, Russia would likely agree to a prohibition on the deployment of regular army troops in this territory and a ban on the construction of any fortifications if it was allowed to deploy Rosgvardiya National Guard troops, which are not part of the Russian Army, or minimally DPR and LPR militia forces in this region for the defense of its population against potential Ukrainian invasion. In addition, Russia would likely agree to limit the number of its military forces in the annexed territories to 200,000 troops if Ukraine abided by the same limit in terms of total active-duty troops. Russia has already reportedly agreed to Keith Kellogg’s proposed 30 kilometer DMZ along the four disputed oblasts including 15 kilometers into Russian territory so that should be applied to the new postwar border in the Donetsk region. That would be the best possible compromise in my opinion.

Russia has already agreed to freeze the lines of contract in Kherson and Zaporozhia so that should be acceptable to the Kremlin. In exchange for Ukraine ceding western Donetsk to Russia, this provision would likely require Russia to return to Ukraine all its territory it controls in Sumy, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts while keeping the small amount of territory it controls in Mykolaiv oblast which it has annexed to Kherson oblast.

22. After agreeing on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment.

This provision would apply mostly to Ukraine which would be the most likely to try to violate the agreement by taking back the demilitarized portion of the Donbass region. Russia would have little reason to violate the agreement unless they were pressured to agree to terms, they find unacceptable. But given Russia’s increasing battlefield victories and the fact the Ukrainian army is on the verge of military collapse, there seems no likelihood that Russia could be pressured to sign a peace agreement with any terms they can not accept.

23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea.

This provision barring Russia from blocking Ukraine from using the key Dnipro River for commercial purposes would seem to be acceptable to Russia. It is noteworthy that the Trump administration opted to use the Russian name for the river instead of the Ukrainian name of “Dnipro” likely because the original draft was written with Russian input.

24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues:

a. All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on an ‘all for all’ basis.

b. All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children.

c. A family reunification programme will be implemented.

d. Measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of the victims of the conflict.

Russia likely has no reluctance to release all Ukrainian prisoners of war in exchange for all Russian troops being held by Ukraine providing the peace agreement is a final one and is not perceived as an attempt by Ukraine for a temporary cease-fire to re-arm and rebuild its army, which has been utterly decimated by nearly four years of war against a militarily far superior enemy thirty-five times larger with more than five times its population. Russia has denied that it has abducted any Ukrainian children and there is no evidence to suggest they ever have, nor is there any evidence they are holding any Ukrainian civilians “hostage”.

25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days.

This is furtherance of Russia’s demand that Ukraine undergoes what the Russian government terms “denazification” namely the replacement of Ukraine’s illegitimate anti-Russian leader with a new Ukrainian leader who genuinely supports peaceful co-existence with the Russian Federation. This provision mandates that Ukraine hold democratic elections for President and for the Ukrainian Rada within 100 days of the agreement being signed by the US, Russia and Ukraine. Zelensky cancelled the May 2024 presidential election falsely claiming that he was barred from holding democratic elections during time of martial law by the Ukrainian constitution. However, as I have written there is no provision in the Ukrainian constitution banning a presidential election during time of war or martial law, only elections for parliament.

Zelensky has ruled Ukraine as “a dictator without elections” as President Trump rightly stated in February 2025 with an iron first since he enacted martial law in March 2022. Accordingly, it’s understandable that both the US and Russia would want to restore democracy to Ukraine. However, Zelensky has stated he might support an election if it were held electronically with a phone app the results of which could be easily hacked by the Zelensky regime to ensure his re-election despite the fact that his support among the Ukrainian people is only around 9-20% according to independent polls.

26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.

According to the New York Post, this provision was reportedly requested by former Ukrainian Defense Minister Rusten Umerov in light of his involvement and the involvement of other top Zelensky regime officials in the Ukrainian $100 million Western funding embezzlement scandal. However, the provision to not make any claims by one party of the war on the other is contradicted by the $100 billion Russian reparations clause above. Both sides have committed war crimes against the other side and there is reason to believe that Ukraine may have committed more war crimes against Russia than Russia has committed against Ukraine as Putin has refused to directly target Ukrainian civilians during the war as noted by the fact that only 1.7 percent of Ukrainian civilians to date have been civilians based on reliable civilian casualty figures from the UN Human Rights office.

President Donald Trump, would be de-facto leader of the Gaza Strip and potential future Chairman of a Peace Council to ensure peace between Russia in Ukraine.

27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald J Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.

Much like Trump’s Gaza War peace plan which was recently approved for implementation by the United Nations, the overall peace agreement would be monitored and enforced by a Peace Council, to be chaired by President Trump in charge of determining how to respond to violations from either party. Interestingly, Trump continues to try to misleadingly portray the US as some kind of neutral observer and mediator in the war when in fact the US has been an active participation in the conflict since the war began sending military advisors and weapons technicians to Ukraine to help target Russian forces with US offensive intelligence and perhaps even to pull the trigger on US long-range missiles. The New York Times even published a lengthy article in March detailing how a US Major General helped run the Ukrainian war effort from a US military base in Weisbaden, Germany and jointly planned Ukraine’s military strategy in a failed effort to defeat the Russians.

This provision states that “sanctions will be imposed for violations” but would those sanctions apply to Ukraine if it were to violate the agreement by launching missile strikes on Russian cities? It seems very doubtful that the US, let alone its EU partners, would enact any economic sanctions on its soon to be former Ukrainian military protectorate. It is unclear whether Trump would continue to chair such a Peace Council after his presidential term ends. However, it would seem there is a good chance that he would both with regards to the Gaza peace deal and this one.

28. Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides retreat to the agreed points to begin implementation of the agreement.

Importantly, this cease-fire would be intended to be a permanent not a temporary 30-day cease-fire as the Trump administration pushed from February to August that would have accomplished nothing and would have seen the conflict resume after a brief lull in the fighting. Russian officials have been saying since June 2024 that Moscow would only agree to a permanent cease-fire after the terms of a peace agreement had been substantially agreed upon and the Ukrainian army had begun withdrawing from their shrinking enclave in western Donetsk which amounts to approximately twelve percent of the Donbass region.

Trump gives Zelensky until Thanksgiving Day to Accept His Peace Deal while US Threatens to Cut Security Assistance to Ukraine if He Doesn’t

Kaja Kallas, who serves as EU High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, came out in full opposition to Trump’s peace plan on Wednesday saying the EU was left out in drafting the terms and that no peace agreement could be achieved without Zelensky’s full approval. However, a senior US official has revealed that the Trump administration expects Zelensky to sign this peace deal by the end of the month after which it will be presented to Russia for signature. However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied reports that the US was trying to push Zelensky to accept the deal.

The New York Post reports that:

“Kyiv has not publicly endorsed the proposal — and the Kremlin has similarly kept quiet — but the document represents the most ambitious US attempt to date to map out an endgame for the war that has redrawn Europe’s borders and triggered the largest land conflict since World War II. On Wednesday night, Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to deny that the US had decided to push the peace plan on Ukraine, becoming the first Trump administration official to publicly temper expectations on a reported deal that would gut Kyiv’s defense force and give up land to Russia. “Ending a complex and deadly war such as the one in Ukraine requires an extensive exchange of serious and realistic ideas. And achieving a durable peace will require both sides to agree to difficult but necessary concessions,” he wrote in a cryptic post to X. “That is why we are and will continue to develop a list of potential ideas for ending this war based on input from both sides of this conflict.”

However, earlier today Rubio’s statement was contradicted by President Trump. When speaking to the press in the Oval Office, a reporter asked Trump, “The suggestion you made was that if Zelensky doesn’t accept the deal, the US will pull back its support for Ukraine.” Trump responded by stating “He doesn’t like it? He’s gonna have to like it.” “And if he doesn’t like it, they will have to just keep fighting I guess.” “At some point he’s going to have to accept something he hasn’t accepted,” Trump said. Recalling their fractious February meeting with Zelenskiy, Trump added: “You remember right in the Oval Office, not so long ago, I said, ‘You don’t have the cards.’” Zelenskyy should have made a deal one or two years ago, he added.

NBC News reported that Trump has given Zelensky a deadline to accept the deal by Thanksgiving Day while stopping short of saying it was an ultimatum.

President Donald Trump said Friday that he wants Ukraine to accept a new peace deal by Thanksgiving, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned the deal was forcing his country to choose between its “dignity” and a “key partner.” The White House wants Kyiv to sign off on a “framework” to end the war in Ukraine based upon the U.S.-crafted 28-point peace plan by Thursday, according to three U.S. officials. Trump said in an interview on Brian Kilmeade’s radio show Friday that the deadline is “an appropriate time” and said that he has no plans to lift U.S. sanctions on Russia while the administration waits for a response to the peace proposal. The president also suggested that Ukraine would “lose in a short period of time.” “They’re losing land,” Trump said about Ukraine.

At a gathering of reporters at the White House on Friday, Trump said that the plan is “a way of getting peace” that needs to be approved by Zelenskyy. “He’ll have to like it, and if he doesn’t like it, then, you know, they should just keep fighting, I guess,” Trump said. He added, “Well, at some point he’s going to have to accept something. You know he hasn’t accepted. You remember right in the Oval Office, not so long ago, I said you don’t have the cards.” On reports that the U.S. threatened to halt intelligence sharing and weapons supplies for Ukraine if the deal is rejected, a senior administration official said: “It was strongly implied to the Ukrainians that the United States expects them to agree to a peace deal. Any changes will be decided upon by the president himself.”

Vice President JD Vance said today that any plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine should preserve Ukrainian sovereignty and be acceptable to both countries but that it was a “fantasy” to think Ukraine could win if the U.S. were to give Kyiv more money or weapons or impose more sanctions on Moscow. “There is a fantasy that if we just give more money, more weapons, or more sanctions, victory is at hand,” Vance wrote on X. His statement makes one wonder why President Trump has continued to increase sanctions on Russia and weapons shipments to Ukraine over the past several months if indeed he realizes that the war is unwinnable for Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Reuters is reporting that the Trump administration has threatened to cut intelligence and arms shipments for Ukraine if Zelensky doesn’t accept Trump’s peace deal by Thanksgiving Day.

The United States has threatened to cut intelligence sharing and weapons supplies for Ukraine to press it into agreeing to the framework of a U.S.-brokered peace deal, two people familiar with the matter said. The sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Kyiv was under greater pressure from Washington than during any previous peace discussions, and that the U.S. wanted Ukraine to sign a framework of the deal by next Thursday. “They want to stop the war and want Ukraine to pay the price,” one of the sources said.

A delegation of senior U.S. military officials met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv on Thursday to discuss a path to peace. The U.S. ambassador in Ukraine and the army public affairs chief travelling with the delegation described the meeting as a success and said Washington sought an “aggressive timeline” for the signature of a document between the U.S. and Ukraine.

The Financial Times published a story that US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll did issue Zelensky an ultimatum to sign the deal by Thursday and that he informed EU officials that the terms of Trump’s peace deal were not up for negotiations with the EU.

According to senior European officials I spoke with about the meeting noted below by the US embassy here in Kyiv, it did not go well. One senior European official described the tone of the meeting as “nauseating”. US army secretary Daniel Driscoll told European ambassadors and western officials he was “optimistic that now is the time for peace” — but warned that Washington would show little flexibility. “We are not negotiating details,” he said, according to a senior European official in the meeting at the Kyiv residence of US Chargé d’Affaires, Julie Davis. “We need to get this shit done,” he said.

Not surprisingly, Ukrainian President Zelensky appeared unusually somber under this heavy US pressure during a ten-minute video addressed to the Ukrainian people today warning Ukraine was at risk of losing all US support if he refused to accept Trump’s peace terms. Zelensky is reportedly planning on meeting with EU leaders tomorrow to try to come up with a counterproposal to Trump’s peace plan to persuade Trump to modify his peace proposal to make it unacceptable to Russia and thereby ensure Putin will reject it so they can sabotage any chances of ending the war with a peace deal with Moscow.

“This is one of the most difficult moments in our history,” Zelenskyy said in a somber 10-minute video addressed to the Ukrainian people. “Currently, the pressure on Ukraine is one of the hardest,” he said. “Ukraine may now face a very difficult choice, either losing its dignity or the risk of losing a key partner, either the difficult 28 points, or a very difficult winter” Zelenskyy added, urging the nation to stay united during what he said would be “a very difficult, eventful” week.

While Trump’s newly disclosed draft peace agreement was initially painted as pre-approved by the Russians, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Dmitry Peskov initially denied that was the case saying earlier today “No, this plan has not been communicated to us.” But, earlier today, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated today that President Trump’s 28-point Peace Plan was discussed with Russia even before the meeting in Alaska and “can serve as the foundation for a final settlement of the Ukrainian conflict” meaning that Zelensky, not Putin, remains the main obstacle to a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

Conclusion

This draft peace agreement appears to have included a number of modifications included at Ukraine’s behest from a previous version that the US and Russia previously negotiated and likely found mutually acceptable. Of the 28 points, I believe 25 are likely acceptable to Moscow. Only Article Six which, on its face, appears to increase the size of the Ukrainian armed forces by three times, Article 14 which mandates $100 billion in Russian reparations and Article 21 which provides for western Donetsk to be transformed into a neutral, demilitarized buffer zone are likely unacceptable to the Kremlin. In addition, Russia is unlikely to agree to any peace deal which does not have strict prohibitions on the ranges of Ukraine’s offensive strike systems including missiles, combat drones and Ukrainian fighter bombers beyond a range of forty kilometers in accordance with the terms of the Istanbul Agreement. Despite Putin’s general support for the draft agreement, unless Trump is willing to compromise on the above four points, Russia could end up rejecting the peace deal and continue the war until Ukraine’s military collapses and Russian troops advance to the Dnipro River by spring or summer at the latest which might well lead Zelensky to flee Ukraine and go into exile.

As I have been saying, it is not necessary for Zelensky to accept the terms of a peace deal negotiated between Russia and Ukraine because as Elon Musk warned, if Trump threatened to cut off Ukraine’s Starlink access, Ukraine would lose the ability to use much of its drone army and Zelensky would be forced to sign a deal to prevent its front from collapsing. Accordingly, the Trump administration would be wise to modify the agreement to make it acceptable to Russia and then threaten to cut off all US security assistance to Ukraine if Zelensky refuses to accept it to end the war and prevent much more massive potential Ukrainian military and territorial losses that will effectively make Ukraine indefensible and threaten its future existence as a viable independent state.

© David T. Pyne 2025

David T. Pyne, Esq. is a former U.S. Army combat arms and Headquarters staff officer, who was in charge of armaments cooperation with the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the Americas from 2000-2003, with an M.A. in National Security Studies from Georgetown University. He is the former President and current Deputy Executive Director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security. He recently served as Defense and Foreign Policy Advisor to former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. He has also co-authored the best-selling new book, “Catastrophe Now--America’s Last Chance to Avoid an EMP Disaster” and his new book “Restoring Strategic Deterrence” will be published in January 2026. He serves as the Editor of “The Real War” newsletter at dpyne.substack.com and previously served as a contributor to “The National Interest”. Here is a link to his interview archive. He also posts multiple times a day on X at @AmericaFirstCon. He may be reached at emptaskforce.ut@gmail.com.

Recent Interviews

October 21st—Interview on Main Street Radio with Jon Twitchell on his Talk with Jon show to discuss my the latest developments with regards to Trump’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine and recent PLA Navy joint air and naval blockade exercises surrounding Taiwan.

October 22nd—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss President Trump’s White House meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that devolved into a profanity-laden shouting match in which he demanded that Zelensky accept Russia’s peace terms warning Putin would destroy him and saying Ukraine was losing badly and had no chance to retake territory following his call with Russian President Putin. We will also discuss his decision to capitulate to Zelensky and the neocons and cancel his Budapest summit with Putin.

October 26th—Two Interviews with Brandon Weichert—- one on his outstanding National Security Hour Radio Show and the other on his new National Security Talk Show to discuss my China-Taiwan peace plan, the Trump-Zelensky White House meeting, similarities between the war in Ukraine and the outbreak of both world wars that might cause it to escalate to World War Three and Trump’s new National Defense Strategy which closely mirror my Assured National Survival strategy to return the US from a global superpower to a hemispheric superpower.

October 29th—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss Russia’s test of both the Skyfall and Poseidon nuclear powered superweapons and the Poseidon’s ability to use its 100 megaton warhead to cause 1,600 feet high tidal waves to kill tens of millions of Americans leaving near the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. We will discuss whether the timing of these weapon tests are in response to Trump’s escalatory moves in his continuing war against Russia in Ukraine.

November 3rd—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss the neocon plan to break Russia apart, the Pentagon approval of nuclear-capable Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine and its upcoming loss of the now surrounded fortress city of Pokrovsk and Trump’s plans to invade Communist Venezuela.

November 5th—Interview with the Rob Maness on the Rob Maness Show to discuss the latest developments regarding Trump’s war against Russia in Ukraine including his shouting match with Zelensky in the White House, Trump’s peace deal in Gaza and the prospect that China will blockade Taiwan in the near future.

November 10th—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss China’s transformation of its fleet of 360 10,000 dual-use RORO ferries from civilian to military use, China’s likely plans to conduct another massive Straight Thunder 2025B air/naval blockade drill during the next thirty days after commissioning their third aircraft carrier and Russia’s planned winter offensive which could lead to Ukraine’s military collapse by spring.

November 17th—Interview with Brandon Weichert on Emerald Robinson’s Absolute Truth Show on Lindell TV to discuss the latest updates regarding Trump’s war against Russia in Ukraine, Israeli violations of the Gaza peace deal, potential Chinese moves against Taiwan and Trump’s potential plans to overthrow the Maduro regime in Communist Venezuela by military force.

November 18th—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss the latest developments with Russia’s six new nuclear superweapons including Russian nuclear submarines which carry six Poseidon nuclear torpedoes. One such submarine carries almost as much nuclear firepower as the entire operational US nuclear arsenal. We will also discuss the latest developments regarding Trump’s war in Ukraine and the prospects for a Ukrainian military collapse by spring or summer at the latest.

November 18th—Interview on Main Street Radio with Jon Twitchell on his Talk with Jon show to discuss my the latest developments with regards to Trump’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, the chances of the US fighting a nuclear war with Russia or with China over Taiwan and Trump’s plan to overthrow the Maduro regime in Venezuela.

Upcoming Interviews

November 23rd—Interview with Brandon Weichert—-on his National Security Hour Talk Show to discuss President Trump’s new 28 point draft peace proposal and his ultimatum for Zelensky to accept it by Thanksgiving Day as well as the chances for Ukraine and Russia accepting it.

November 23rd—Interview with Pascal Lottaz on his Neutrality Studies podcast to discuss the prospects that Trump’s new draft peace proposal might succeed in ending his war against Russia in Ukraine and which of its terms are likely acceptable to Putin and Zelensky.

November 24th—Interview with Kristi Leigh on her Get Free with Kristi Leigh podcast on Lindell TV to discuss President Trump’s new 28-point draft peace proposal and his ultimatum for Zelensky to accept it by Thanksgiving Day as well as the chances for Ukraine and Russia accepting it

November 24th—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss Trump’s new 28 point peace plan and his decision to pressure Zelensky to accept it by Thanksgiving as well as the points of the plan which Russia is unlikely to accept.

November 24th—Interview with Nima Alkhorshid on his Dialogue Works podcast to discuss the new US-Ukraine 19-point peace plan in which Rubio caved to every demand from Zelensky to torpedo Trump’s 28 point peace deal with Russia and ensure the war continues indefinitely.

November 25th—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss the new US-Ukraine 19-point peace plan in which Rubio caved to every demand from Zelensky to torpedo Trump’s 28-point peace deal with Russia and ensure the war continues indefinitely. We will also discuss the deployment of 30% of deployed US Navy ships to the Caribbean for possible war with Venezuela.

November 26th—Interview with Raphael Machado to discuss German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’ decision to increase arms shipments and financial aid to Ukraine in the midst of its corruption scandal and the harmful impact of German sanctions on Ukraine to German citizens and the German economy.

December 1st—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss Maduro’s offer to leave power in Venezuela, Trump’s ultimatum for him to go into exile or face military strikes and Hegseth’s double strike on a Venezuelan speed boat ordering the SOUTHCOM commander to kill the survivors on the grounds they post a threat to the US.

December 4th—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss China’s largest ever Joint Air and Naval Blockade exercise including over 100 PLA Navy warships and Coast Guard vessels in the Yellow Sea, East China Sea and South China Sea in response to Japan’s and Taiwan’s latest perceived provocations.

December 10th—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss the leak of a top secret US report that China would destroy the US military if the US went to war with the PRC over Taiwan. We will also discuss Trump’s ultimatum to Zelensky to make peace with Russia by Christmas and his statement that Zelensky has spent the last two years prolonging his war with Russia to avoid having democratic elections so he could remain in power.

December 14th—Interview with the Indian Express to discuss my assessment of Trump’s outstanding new National Security Strategy in relation to China and its implications for India.

December 15th—Interview with COL Rob Maness on the Rob Maness Show to discuss Trump’s new National Security Strategy, the Overmatch Brief and the US deadline of 2027 for Europe to assume the principal role in its own conventional defense.

December 19th—Interview with Stanislav Krapivnik on his Eyes of Truth podcast to discuss Trump’s peace proposal and the prospects for ending the war in Ukraine with a diplomatic peace agreement before Ukraine runs out of troops and collapses militarily in the spring or summer of 2026.

December 23rd—Interview on Main Street Radio with Jon Twitchell on his Talk with Jon show to discuss the latest news regarding the war in Ukraine, China’s plans to blockade and/or invade Taiwan and Trump’s plan to overthrow the Maduro regime in Venezuela.