13 Comments
User's avatar
Steven's avatar

How likely as a percentage do you think a China blockade of Taiwan is this year ?

Won’t that result in massive sanctions against China the freezing of its us bonds and removal from swift ?

Expand full comment
David T. Pyne's avatar

Very high likely around 70%. Yes, it would but China would come out the winner much as Russia's economy has grown much larger since the US imposed massive sanctions on it three years ago. This is because China has a manufacturing industrial base nearly four times larger than our own and can produce virtually all of its own necessities and it has stockpiled years worth of food and strategic resources in preparation for its planned potential war with the US.

Expand full comment
Charles Stanley's avatar

Taiwan, formerly known as Formosa is not part of Chinese Communist Party and never was....

Expand full comment
David T. Pyne's avatar

No, it has never been part of the PRC which is why I use the word "unification" rather than "re-unification."

Expand full comment
Charles Stanley's avatar

A hostile take over?…. Equals unification?…

Cartels are in the midst of unifying Mexico. A hostile take over. Texas will be on their list as well as New Mexico and Arizona and Nevada. California is already under the control of cartels and ccp operatives. Electronic voting machines and software are functioning well for these foreign powers.

Expand full comment
Charles Stanley's avatar

So then it's an attack… invasion…. take over and forced unification…. I got it. Why not be blunt with them… and just tell them straight…. It's a hostile take over of another country. But this one is one of our suppliers.

Expand full comment
Steven's avatar

Thanks David

Expand full comment
WMG's avatar

- The US has done A LOT OF things that drove China & Russia together.

- I don't think the US will be able to split the Sino-Russian alliance like they did in the early 1970s (think: Nixon's visit to China). In the very late 1960s the relationship China and the Soviet Union was so bad that they even fought a (small ???) war over a few small islands in the Assoeri river.

Expand full comment
David T. Pyne's avatar

The US will never be able to formally break the Sino-Russian military alliance but we can easily neutralize it but signing a mutual security agreement with Russia that transforms them from an adversary to a strategic partner/quasi-ally. Such an agreement would largely entail accepting Russia's peace terms to end the war in Ukraine, withdrawing all US troops from Eastern Europe and moving our 150 nuclear bombs out of Europe with a US-Russia sphere of influence agreement.

Expand full comment
WMG's avatar

- Excellent proposal to reduce tensions between the US on the one hand and Russia and China on the other hand AND in the rest of the world AS WELL. But I fear that the US is still in the grips of the foreign establishment who continues to drive the US agenda towards Russia & China.

- Agree. The future world order will - IMO - see a number of REGIONAL (say 4, 5, 6, or 7) "Great / Medium Sized" powers and the US, Russia & China could / will be 3 of them. that's a much more healthy situation for the entire world.

- I fear only "more financial pain" will persuade the US to scale down on their "war agenda".

What about this:

- Alastair Crooke thinks that the US and Israel are busy preparing an attack on Iran in the fall of this year. This is suppossedly meant to distract the attention away from the internal problems in israel itself. He talked about it with Larry Johnson.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQ2gyFWRVEY

Expand full comment
Jennie's avatar

I agree with your conclusion. Much of the background detail you give is very interesting. Thank you.

However in my view the stance that China has taken vis a vis Taiwan seems perfectly acceptable to me if you go back in time before the US was ever dreamt of. I think the US interference in that area has stoked many of the problems you refer to.

It's the same in Ukraine. The US has a way of being a bully whilst pleading that it is somehow doing the right thing and then when their bullying creates a reaction: Russia invading Ukraine or China getting uppity about Taiwan, they feign surprise and shock at the other party's behaviour.

Anyhow, be that as it may, it seems to me ridiculous to go to war with a nuclear power over Taiwan. If the US needs Taiwanese chips then trade with them and I'm sure even if they became part of China they would still sell them to the US. Providing the US doesn't seek to bully China they'll get their chips.

And whilst the US (for a change) acts diplomatically and correctly with China they can start to get their act together to develop other suppliers or develop their own so as not to have to rely on one source. That's how normal countries behave. Worth giving that a go instead of sabre-rattling.

That might all sound as though I'm less than impressed with this article, but I think it's actually very good and your approach, given the way the US views China, an excellent one.

Expand full comment
Jim Sturdevant II's avatar

Your assessment/policy prescription 👀reflects a naive & unrealistic “defeatist attitude!” 👎You should resign from RSR too! 👍Jim S 😎

Expand full comment
Velociraver's avatar

🤣 Putin has stated that he doesn't trust any agreements signed by the US, as in four years it would be meaningless. Why should Putin entertain ANY such machinations, having been burned by various US administrations, again and again?

Expand full comment