Gaetz's 'Hail Mary' Ouster of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy Might Backfire for Conservatives

But if America First conservative Rep. Jim Jordan ends up replacing McCarthy it could end up being a huge conservative victory

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) who joined seven House Republicans to ally with the entire House Democrat Conference in deposing him earlier this week.

October 11th Update: House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) has defeated America First conservative hero Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) by only 14 votes to become House Speaker Designate as I predicted he likely would be following McCarthy's ouster. So the Gaetz coup ended up giving us a status quo Speaker election with another Establishment Republican like McCarthy. The good news is that Jordan who currently serves as House Judiciary Chairman can now run for the vacant position of House Majority Leader which I hope he will do but presumably that election will not be held until Scalise is elected Speaker on the House floor later this week.

October 6th Update: Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is reportedly planning to resign from the House after a new Speaker has been elected later this month which would reduce the GOP House Majority to a meager 220-212 eight vote majority until after next month’s special elections when it will likely be 221-213 meaning the GOP will not be able to pass any bills with more than three House GOP defections assuming the House Democrats vote against them. It’s difficult to see how any Speaker can govern effectively with such a small and increasingly fractious and disunified majority let alone pass articles of impeachment against Beijing Joe Biden.

On Tuesday, Speaker Kevin McCarthy made history by being the first House Speaker in US history to be removed from office by a Motion to Vacate by a vote of 216-210. Rep. Patrick McHenry was then appointed Speaker Pro-Tempore. No House Speaker has ever been removed mid-term. The successful coup against Speaker McCarthy was led by conservative Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), who recently resigned from or was forced out of the conservative House Freedom Caucus for unknown reasons. Despite his shortcomings, McCarthy governed as the most conservative House Speaker in the last quarter century.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (FL) and former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have long been adversaries though it is not clear exactly what caused his personal animosity for and vendetta against McCarthy. After an embarrassing fifteen votes for House Speaker over the course of five days, McCarthy made many concessions to the twenty or so House Freedom Caucus members who opposed his bid for the Speakership and honored the vast majority of them going so far as to give Gaetz and other conservative rebels coveted House Committee assignments in a bid to placate them.

Followers of my social media postings know that I have long been a fan of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) as one of the few courageous members of the short-lived House America First Caucus. I strongly supported all attempts to oust former House Speakers John Boehner (R-OH) and Paul Ryan (R-WI) as well as Jim Jordan’s bid against Kevin McCarthy for House Minority Leader in 2018. However, I strongly opposed Gaetz’s Motion to Vacate given that McCarthy’s only failing was to negotiate a budget deal with Biden earlier this year that exploded spending caps that was admittedly a colossal mistake, due to my belief that the motion had a greater risk of damaging the conservative cause in Congress than advancing it.

A Democrat Coup against McCarthy in all but Name Led by an Unlikely Ally

Far left House Democrat socialist party members like AOC are all smiling right now at the power they demonstrated in successfully bring down a GOP House Speaker for the first time in history on Tuesday

The hypocrisy of Gaetz filing a Motion to Vacate the Speakership in response to McCarthy’s decision to support a 45-day Continuing Resolution which he himself provoked that contained no funding for the war in Ukraine with Democrat support while Gaetz allied with far left Democrats to get his motion to pass apparently escaped him. Gaetz ended up allying with all 208 House Democrat members present and seven House Republicans who together represented about three and a half percent of the House Republican Caucus. The coup represented a major victory for House Democrats. Gaetz gave all the power to AOC, Omar and Schiff and they are all celebrating their big win this week. Democrats, not conservatives, have been the big winners from the Gaetz-led coup against McCarthy thus far. Republican leaders were so incensed by his move that they forced him to speak from the Democrat side of the aisle which given the final vote totals seems to have been appropriate.

Unlike Gaetz who lobbied Democrats to support his motion, McCarthy refused to ask for the support of any House Democrats when the support of only a few would have saved his Speakership. McCarthy had spent the previous two weeks pushing hard to pass a Continuing Resolution which included 8-30% cuts in government spending and a really good GOP border security bill, written by House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) but Gaetz six of his conservative allies voted them all down, which I correctly predicted over a week ago would backfire because it would force McCarthy to pass a 'clean’ Continuing Resolution to prevent a government shutdown. It seems that this was what Gaetz was hoping for all along to give him a pretext to file his Motion to Vacate to remove McCarthy as Speaker.

Whatever you might think of him, Kevin McCarthy should be remembered as the only House GOP Speaker that sought to ally with the House Freedom Caucus and share power with them even after nearly half of their members tried to prevent him from becoming Speaker forcing 15 ballots back in January. I think that says a lot about him that he was willing to forgive his opponents and appoint them to prestigious committees. Both of his predecessors—John Boehner and Paul Ryan dealt with conservative dissenters far more harshly by denying them plum committee assignments. That's why I say McCarthy is the most conservative Speaker we have had since Newt Gingrich was Speaker back in 1998.

Most Conservatives Opposed McCarthy’s Ouster

Most House conservatives including Rep. Jim Jordan ardently opposed the coup against the former Speaker. The most conservative GOP House member Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), who has been consistently rated as the most conservative member of the US House of Representatives according to the New American magazine’s Freedom Index, is the only surviving House member who voted every single time to oust Boehner and Ryan. Massie spoke in favor of keeping McCarthy as House Speaker saying he is much more conservative than Boehner or Ryan were. I agree. During the Motion to Vacate debate on the House floor, Rep. Tom McClintock (R-CA) predicted that if McCarthy were removed as Speaker, it might take another fifteen ballots for Speaker and paralyze House business for at least two more weeks with no impeachment hearings. Given the fact that the Speaker can only afford to lose about four or five Republicans depending on how many members are present at the time of the Speaker election, he is likely to be proven right.

Former President Trump did not have much to say about the removal of his ally-Speaker Kevin McCarthy and reportedly McCarthy did not seek his help in calling the dissenters and urging them to keep him in power. Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy said he opposed McCarthy ouster not because he supported McCarthy but because Gaetz and his seven conservative House Republican allies appeared not to have a game plan for anyone better but said "a little chaos can be a good thing." Of the eight Republicans who voted to oust McCarty, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) was perhaps the most surprising because she is a member of two ‘centrist’ House GOP groups including the House Problem Solvers Caucus and the House Governance Caucus. Following her vote, there have been calls to remove her from both caucuses.

If only we could get of our Manchurian President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris as easily as the House got rid of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. However, with the Speakership vacant, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is now next in the line of succession. McConnell is bought and paid for by the CCP just like Biden so it would not be much of an improvement if he replaced Biden as President, particularly given his advanced age and declining mental awareness.

Race for the next Speaker of the House Too Close to Call

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) speaking at a press conference

Meanwhile, the race for who will be elected the next House Speaker has begun in earnest with the only two declared candidates being House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan. Another candidate who has been rumored to be leaning towards running is Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK) who serves as Chairman of the House Republican Study Committee and has a voting record almost as conservative as Jim Jordan. However, with every passing day he does not declare, the chances of him joining the race grow less likely. I am thinking he may end up running for House Majority Leader instead if Scalise ekes out a win in the Speaker’s race. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) has endorsed Scalise and is running to replace him as House Majority Leader but would presumably drop out if Scalise lost to allow him to run-for re-election as Leader. If successful, this would trigger a race to replace Emmer as House Majority Whip for which Rep. Nancy Mace is rumored to be a potential dark horse candidate. I think Mace would be outstanding in that role particularly if Jordan were elected Speaker.

When asked who he would support for House Speaker ‘the kingslayer’ of the day, Rep. Matt Gaetz, rattled off a list of seven names including Scalise notably omitting the name of his supposed mentor Jim Jordan leaving us to wonder what his point was in ousting McCarthy in the first place. A number of people have suggested that Gaetz did it both out of personal animosity for McCarthy as well as to elevate his name recognition in advance of a planned run for Florida Governor in 2026.

Former 45th President of the United States and potential kingmaker Donald Trump

Former President Donald Trump had said he was open to running for Speaker as a unifying candidate on a temporary basis and wanted to speak at the House Republican Caucus Candidate Forum on Tuesday. However this evening news broke that Trump had posted the following endorsement on Truth Social:

“He is a STRONG on Crime, Borders, our Military/Vets, & 2nd Amendment. Jim, his wife, Polly, & family are outstanding – He will be a GREAT Speaker of the House, & has my Complete & Total Endorsement!”

Needless to say the former President’s endorsement represents a huge, though not unsurprising, boost for Jordan’s insurgent bid.

Jim Jordan’s Transformation from Conservative Rebel Leader to House Judiciary Committee Chairman

Former ‘kingslayer’, longtime America First conservative fighter and potential Speaker in waiting Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH)

Ironically, only eight years ago it was Jordan, then serving as House Freedom Caucus Chair, not Gaetz who was not yet a member of Congress, that was ‘the kingslayer’, leading a rebellion of House GOP conservatives which forced then House Speaker and infamous crybaby John Boehner (R-OH) to resign. McCarthy at the time was fighting allegations of an affair with another House members and so made the fateful decision to not run for Speaker. Back them, Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) was serving together with Jordan as one of the nine hard-core conservative founding members of the House Freedom Caucus.

A year later, the GOP nominated a presidential flagbearer with a far more colorful past so McCarthy’s decision to blow out may have seemed to him to be a huge missed opportunity. In 2019, Jordan stopped being a bomb thrower when he reached an agreement with McCarthy to serve as Ranking Member of the House Oversight and later House Judiciary Committee. Since then, Jim Jordan has earned a reputation for being the most effective communicator for the Republican cause and has done an outstanding job chairing the House Judiciary Committee and leading the investigation into America’s hopelessly corrupt, compromised and illegitimate President, Joe Biden, for the past eight months. He has even earned plaudits from some House GOP centrists for his commitment to work collaboratively with anyone to pass good conservative legislation.

Jim Jordan seems to have all the momentum in the Speaker’s race right now. Speaker McCarthy's aides are reportedly making calls on behalf of Jim Jordan suggesting McCarthy is likely backing Jordan behind the scenes because he doesn't like Scalise. Leader Scalise, who survived an assassination attempt several years ago by a self-described Bernie Sanders supporter and has announced he is being treated for blood cancer, reportedly started making calls to replace McCarthy before he was even ousted leaving McCarthy pissed. That explains McCarthy’s behind the scenes support for Jim Jordan for Speaker. Hopefully, Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK) won't jump in the race as he has a conservative voting record like Jordan and could divide the conservative vote allowing a Scalise victory. Fox News Host Sean Hannity, who like Trump is a longtime McCarthy supporter, has also strongly endorsed Jordan for Speaker.

I think Jordan has a real chance to be elected Speaker-designate but as the article notes he might struggle to win 216-217 votes on the floor necessary to be elected Speaker. From all appearances, Jim Jordan has been doing a good job focusing on winning over House GOP ‘centrists’ as the conservative/GOP Establishment ‘fusion’/unity candidate. It's likely his only path to victory and he's already got nearly all conservative House members backing him. Of course, a public McCarthy endorsement for his candidacy along with an endorsement from Trump would likely seal the deal for him to win the race on Wednesday.

If Jordan becomes Speaker-designate next week, liberal House Republicans might try do to him what Gaetz did to McCarthy back in January by taking fifteen votes to get elected and only approving him if he makes major concessions to them. One of the more likely concessions Jordan would likely be forced to make to liberal Republicans in exchange for their support for House Speaker would be to allow up or down votes on a high dollar stand-alone Ukraine funding bill with audit requirements. This would likely serve to all but assure continued long-term US assistance to Ukraine given that nearly half the House Republican Caucus and all House Democrats support continued aid.

Although, I adamantly oppose any additional aid to Ukraine given the fact that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has no incentive to end the war with a permanent cease fire and armistice agreement so long as US aid continues flowing, I would support Jordan if he felt he had to agree to that in order to be elected House Speaker given he is so outstanding on the issues of greatest importance to America First conservatives. An article in Politico speculated that Scalise might make a deal with Jordan to support him for House Majority Leader in return for Jordan’s support for Speaker. That might be the compromise that ends up working out in the end if Jordan lacks the votes to be elected Speaker on the House floor.

Temporary Paralysis in the House of Representatives

Without a House Speaker, no other business but electing a new Speaker may be conducted by the full House of Representatives and no legislation can be passed. However, House Committees can continue to function while a new Speaker is selected.

It would only take five liberal House Republicans in Biden-voting swing districts could reach an agreement with all House Democrats to elect a liberal GOP House Speaker in exchange for major concessions such as attempting to enact a new House Rules package reducing the GOP majority on House committees from up to 50 percent more members than Democrats today to a one-vote margin. Other concessions could include appointing Democrats to important House Committees, including restoring Adam Schiff (D-CA) as Ranking Member of the House Judiciary Committee, and ending the impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden for selling out his country to Communist China and Ukraine. There is even an outside risk of a Democrat House speaker being elected with only five Republican votes who could give all the committee and subcommittee chairs to the Democrats although the chances of five liberal Republicans making a backroom deal to get one of them elected with House Democrat votes in exchange for major concessions is much higher. Of course, such a doomsday scenario would not likely play out unless a Speaker designate was unable to win a majority of votes on the House floor.

These are some of the reasons why I opposed the Motion to Vacate as way too risky for conservatives as the prospects for actual victory for conservatives were substantially less than 50% in terms of getting a more conservative House Speaker while keeping all our hard-won gains agreed to by Speaker McCarthy back in January. Many of the conservative gains the House Freedom Caucus got McCarthy to agree to could potentially be repudiated by the next Speaker although until the threshold for the Motion to Vacate gets substantially increased, a new Speaker would be unlikely to repudiate them publicly. It could take a couple of weeks to elect a new House Speaker, which could delay the regular order budgeting process out much further and force the need for another CR. Unless we get Jordan elected Speaker or House Majority leader, which I am optimistic about for the first time, this could potentially end up being a case of conservatives weakening their own cause.

Ultimately, Rep. Matt Gaetz’ Motion to Vacate against former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is a textbook case of the chaos that can ensue when a handful of House conservative GOP rebels take a huge gamble by allying with every House Democrat to oust a conservative-friendly Speaker without a plan for what happens next or a set of achievable mission objectives by which to measure success that ironically is exactly what Gaetz has been complaining about with regards to Biden's war in Ukraine. Just like is the case when you fight wars, there may well end up being unintended consequences from the unholy Democrat/conservative rebel alliance to oust McCarthy. But every once in a while such risky gambits can pay off so it’s still possible that the removal of McCarthy could end up being a victory for conservatives if Jim Jordan is elected to replace him as House Speaker.

Recent Media Interviews

August 18th—Interview with Jonathan Hollerman on EMP Task Force Channel to discuss the EMP threat from the Sino-Russian alliance and the likely outcome of the war in Ukraine.

August 22nd—Interview with Carlos Carrillo on the Living Hope Esparanza Podcast discussing the chances of whether the war in Ukraine will escalate to World War III with Russia. Here is a link to the interview.

August 25th—Interview with former Polish Sejm Deputy Mateusz Piskorski to discuss the war in Ukraine and how to end it before it escalates to a full-scale war between Russia and NATO.

August 26th—Interview with Jon Twitchell on the Republic Broadcasting Network discussing the death of Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and the latest developments in the war in Ukraine. Here is a link to the interview.

September 8th—Studio Interview on Jason Preston’s “We Are the People podcast focusing on the threat from Communist China and how to win America’s Cold War with them. Here is the link to the interview.

September 14th—Two-hour long presentation to the Utah Citizens for the Constitution and Cache County Conservatives on the history and future of US Foreign & National Security Policy

September 16th—Interview with Dr. Pascal Lottaz on his Neutrality Studies podcast to discuss my new China-Taiwan Compromise Peace Plan. Here is the link to the interview.

September 27th—Appearance on the Committee on the Present Danger-China webinar “Memo to the Senate: Stop the Marxist Take-down of Our Military” discussing the importance of opposing woke cultural Marxist indoctrination of the U.S. Military and opposing the nominations of US military leaders who support it. Here is a link to the interview.

September 28th—Interview with Brannon Howse on his Worldview Weekend Broadcast Network to discuss a number of important topics including the recent Iranian launch of a satellite in orbit at the optimum altitude for a super EMP attack that could destroy the US in minutes. Here is the link to the interview.

October 5th—Interview with Brannon Howse on his Worldview Weekend Broadcast Network to discuss Putin’s recent threats to conduct an above-ground nuclear test in violation of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and nuke the US if it attacks Russia directly. Here is the link.

Upcoming Interview

October 10th—Interview with Nima Rostami Alkhorshid host of the Dialogue Works show to discuss the prospects for peace in Ukraine and Israel and avoiding a larger and more destructive war.

© David T. Pyne 2023

David T. Pyne, Esq. is a former U.S. Army combat arms and Headquarters staff officer, who was in charge of armaments cooperation with the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the Americas from 2000-2003, with an M.A. in National Security Studies from Georgetown University. He currently serves as Deputy Director of National Operations for the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and as a member of the Committee on the Present Danger-China. He recently co-authored the best-selling new book, “Catastrophe Now--America’s Last Chance to Avoid an EMP Disaster." He also serves as the Editor of “The Real War” newsletter at dpyne.substack.com and as a contributor to “The National Interest”. Here is a link to his interview archive. He may be reached at emptaskforce.ut@gmail.com.