War with China over Taiwan would likely quickly expand to a global war on four fronts against four nuclear powers all but ensuring defeat for the US and its allies
No it would not be wise to nuke China first because they could launch on warning and destroy us at the same time. They have a national missile defense system but we do not. We could only shoot down a limited number of incoming warheads perhaps a dozen at most. We have to learn to co-exist with them peacefully and the only we can do that is by not crossing their nuclear redline in Taiwan.
Thankfully, we have a senile Biden who has literally been wrong on every war he has ever voted on.
Here's an idea: Let's send Janet "We can afford 28 military fronts" Yellen, Victoria "I never met a war I didn't like" Nuland and Hilary "I can, I saw, he died, and I punched a literal ticket to Hell" Clinton to go to the front. I they can fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian, we can fight our other wars down to the last woke, leftist witch.
Hi David, I saw your interview with Carlos Carrillo. During that interview, you said you were not sure about how DeSantis or Ramaswamy would respond to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
(between the 23:30 and 25:00 marks), DeSantis makes clear that he would have hard power near China to deter China's ambitions vis-a-vis Taiwan. He also said that he would prioritize weapons shipments for Taiwan, and that we need to be there to help them.
Responsible Statecraft slammed his plans for a 355 ship Navy by the end of his first term, and also warned that his intentions were to intimidate China. They also noted that he is being briefed by China hawks like Gordon Chang and Elbridge Colby (not directly mentioned, but are named in a Politico article from May).
As a mitigating factor, during the GOP Primary Debate on Wednesday, he did mention the solution to China is not just military, but also decoupling from their economy and fighting them at home with respect to culture. He did sign a law in Florida banning the CCP from purchasing land in his state.
Overall, I get the impression that as of right now, he would defend Taiwan militarily. However, if he was briefed by someone like you with respect to the cyber and EMP threats posed by China, he would be receptive to your grand strategy on countering China, and may then recant his veiled pledges to defend Taiwan.
Now, Ramaswamy has vowed that he would defend Taiwan militarily until the U.S. reaches semiconductor independence by 2028. The only difference between Ramaswamy and DeSantis appears to be that DeSantis would have permanent military power near Taiwan while Ramaswamy would at least have a timetable to withdraw such power.
Even so, Ramaswamy's plan would still be risky, especially if China invaded Taiwan between 2025 and 2027 (I doubt we would have semiconductor independence by then, let alone 2028). Also, I think Ramaswamy hurt himself during the debate when he attacked Nikki Haley's daughter for using TikTok and referring to her as "Cheney in 3-inch heels".
I agree Viveks plan is very risky with a very high chance China would invade anyway as they have planned to do. Indeed, China has mobilized their military under the assumption the US will defend Taiwan militarily. That said i knoe Vivek doesnt want war with China and had made his prefer to defend Taiwan conditional on then increasing their military spending to 4% of GDP ehich they likely will never do so I dont think he would actually go to war with them. DeSantis' plan to spend trillions of dollars to build a 600 ship Navy is both unwise and unnecessary.
Sorry about the late reply, but I do agree that building a 600 ship Navy is unwise and unnecessary. It's also unwise and unnecessary for DeSantis to send Naval forces into China's backyard to deter China from invading or blockading Taiwan.
This is a joke of an 'article'. The author inserts lies and propaganda in an attempt to prop up his fairy tale; the following is an example " Putin had previously threatened to destroy Washington, DC from a Russian nuclear submarine utilizing a Zircon nuclear hypersonic cruise missile operating 200 miles from the capital with five minutes warning time which Putin first threatened to do back in February 2022 “before Biden could escape on Air Force One.”
Typical US military brain dead gronk, fully brain washed and totally ignorant.
As a piece of fiction I rate it 3/5. As a serious analysis it rates -5.
Hi David. Do you believe the US political system will have much jurisdiction militarily under such an existential threat scenario. Although it might play out like it is in command for the electorate on tv. Behind the scenes JSOC or some other bodies would be running the show? If some Pentagon body is truly in command would they not then go straight to nuclear under such a threat scenario? Thanks for your time .
Until and unless martial law is declared as it likely would be following a nuclear attack on the US homeland, the military remains under civilian control and even if martial law is declared the President would still be in charge. So no I don't think the Pentagon is in control under any existential threat scenario. Only the President has the authority to order a nuclear strike. If the President is killed, the Pentagon has no authority to launch a nuclear strike unless and until a new President is sworn into office and orders them to.
Thanks David! At this point anyway all bets are off on what happens next. One last question on your scenario, do you feel this timeline as you laid out is contingent on Taiwan election results but over a longer timeline this scenario regardless of elections grows more likely to occur anyway. It’s sounds from the writing China invading Taiwan is a when not if scenario in your mind?
No, I think that President Xi Jinping is committed to reunification with Taiwan by 2025 no matter what so if no meaningful progress has been made in terms of peaceful reunification, he will invade Taiwan by 2025 no matter what. A Chinese attack on Taiwan is undeterrable in my opinion unless we clearly state we will not defend Taiwan militarily or mediate a reunification agreement. I would say that January 2024 is the earliest I would predict that the PRC would invade and/or blockade Taiwan.
No it would not be wise to nuke China first because they could launch on warning and destroy us at the same time. They have a national missile defense system but we do not. We could only shoot down a limited number of incoming warheads perhaps a dozen at most. We have to learn to co-exist with them peacefully and the only we can do that is by not crossing their nuclear redline in Taiwan.
Thankfully, we have a senile Biden who has literally been wrong on every war he has ever voted on.
Here's an idea: Let's send Janet "We can afford 28 military fronts" Yellen, Victoria "I never met a war I didn't like" Nuland and Hilary "I can, I saw, he died, and I punched a literal ticket to Hell" Clinton to go to the front. I they can fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian, we can fight our other wars down to the last woke, leftist witch.
Dare to dream! 😉
Hell on earth............NO
Leave Taiwan alone and let them sort it out.
I think China is 'playing' with the US!
Hi David, I saw your interview with Carlos Carrillo. During that interview, you said you were not sure about how DeSantis or Ramaswamy would respond to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
In this video: https://www.youtube.com/embed/gRoJgqN-M8o?si=R4RFRXscSrCGd_xD
(between the 23:30 and 25:00 marks), DeSantis makes clear that he would have hard power near China to deter China's ambitions vis-a-vis Taiwan. He also said that he would prioritize weapons shipments for Taiwan, and that we need to be there to help them.
Responsible Statecraft slammed his plans for a 355 ship Navy by the end of his first term, and also warned that his intentions were to intimidate China. They also noted that he is being briefed by China hawks like Gordon Chang and Elbridge Colby (not directly mentioned, but are named in a Politico article from May).
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ron-desantis-foreign-policy/
As a mitigating factor, during the GOP Primary Debate on Wednesday, he did mention the solution to China is not just military, but also decoupling from their economy and fighting them at home with respect to culture. He did sign a law in Florida banning the CCP from purchasing land in his state.
Overall, I get the impression that as of right now, he would defend Taiwan militarily. However, if he was briefed by someone like you with respect to the cyber and EMP threats posed by China, he would be receptive to your grand strategy on countering China, and may then recant his veiled pledges to defend Taiwan.
Now, Ramaswamy has vowed that he would defend Taiwan militarily until the U.S. reaches semiconductor independence by 2028. The only difference between Ramaswamy and DeSantis appears to be that DeSantis would have permanent military power near Taiwan while Ramaswamy would at least have a timetable to withdraw such power.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/vivek-ramaswamy-vows-defend-taiwan-china-us-semiconductor-independence
Even so, Ramaswamy's plan would still be risky, especially if China invaded Taiwan between 2025 and 2027 (I doubt we would have semiconductor independence by then, let alone 2028). Also, I think Ramaswamy hurt himself during the debate when he attacked Nikki Haley's daughter for using TikTok and referring to her as "Cheney in 3-inch heels".
I agree Viveks plan is very risky with a very high chance China would invade anyway as they have planned to do. Indeed, China has mobilized their military under the assumption the US will defend Taiwan militarily. That said i knoe Vivek doesnt want war with China and had made his prefer to defend Taiwan conditional on then increasing their military spending to 4% of GDP ehich they likely will never do so I dont think he would actually go to war with them. DeSantis' plan to spend trillions of dollars to build a 600 ship Navy is both unwise and unnecessary.
Sorry about the late reply, but I do agree that building a 600 ship Navy is unwise and unnecessary. It's also unwise and unnecessary for DeSantis to send Naval forces into China's backyard to deter China from invading or blockading Taiwan.
I completely agree.
This is a joke of an 'article'. The author inserts lies and propaganda in an attempt to prop up his fairy tale; the following is an example " Putin had previously threatened to destroy Washington, DC from a Russian nuclear submarine utilizing a Zircon nuclear hypersonic cruise missile operating 200 miles from the capital with five minutes warning time which Putin first threatened to do back in February 2022 “before Biden could escape on Air Force One.”
Typical US military brain dead gronk, fully brain washed and totally ignorant.
As a piece of fiction I rate it 3/5. As a serious analysis it rates -5.
So, out of the 3 Parties, the "Separatist" Party "won".
Chinese officials and state media predictably set their hair on fire after “Separatist” Lai Ching-te won Taiwan’s presidential election.
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2024/01/15/china-condemns-separatists-in-taiwan-for-peaceful-free-and-fair-election/
Hi David. Do you believe the US political system will have much jurisdiction militarily under such an existential threat scenario. Although it might play out like it is in command for the electorate on tv. Behind the scenes JSOC or some other bodies would be running the show? If some Pentagon body is truly in command would they not then go straight to nuclear under such a threat scenario? Thanks for your time .
Until and unless martial law is declared as it likely would be following a nuclear attack on the US homeland, the military remains under civilian control and even if martial law is declared the President would still be in charge. So no I don't think the Pentagon is in control under any existential threat scenario. Only the President has the authority to order a nuclear strike. If the President is killed, the Pentagon has no authority to launch a nuclear strike unless and until a new President is sworn into office and orders them to.
Thanks David! At this point anyway all bets are off on what happens next. One last question on your scenario, do you feel this timeline as you laid out is contingent on Taiwan election results but over a longer timeline this scenario regardless of elections grows more likely to occur anyway. It’s sounds from the writing China invading Taiwan is a when not if scenario in your mind?
No, I think that President Xi Jinping is committed to reunification with Taiwan by 2025 no matter what so if no meaningful progress has been made in terms of peaceful reunification, he will invade Taiwan by 2025 no matter what. A Chinese attack on Taiwan is undeterrable in my opinion unless we clearly state we will not defend Taiwan militarily or mediate a reunification agreement. I would say that January 2024 is the earliest I would predict that the PRC would invade and/or blockade Taiwan.