How a Chinese Attack on Taiwan Might Quickly Escalate to World War Three

War with China over Taiwan would likely quickly expand to a global war on four fronts against four nuclear powers all but ensuring defeat for the US and its allies

PLA troops engaging in an amphibious assault drill on the day of the last Taiwanese presidential election

March 2nd Update—According to new a recent interview with a Taiwanese media group, they have received intelligence that President Xi Jinping may be planning an ‘October surprise’ blockading Taiwan just weeks before this year’s US presidential election, rather than in May following President-Elect Lai’s inauguration as I originally speculated, with the objective of achieving reunification by November. I have updated my Taiwan war scenario accordingly.

November 16th Update—Taiwan’s opposition parties have announced their presidential candidates will run as a unity ticket. The latest poll shows that together they are currently leading the pro-independence DPP candidate— Vice President Lai Ching-te by 17 points. If he were to lose, it could delay a Chinese invasion of Taiwan early next year and buy several months more time for reunification talks that could delay an invasion to 2025 or better yet negotiate a peaceful solution to the Taiwan crisis.

The People’s Republic of China has spent the past 74 years since the end of the Chinese Civil War preparing to invade and annex Taiwan, an island nation a little larger than the Republic of Moldova, with a goal of achieving reunification by 2025. Taiwan was a formal US treaty ally until 1979 when we abrogated our mutual security agreement with them as part of our “One China” policy, replacing it with a commitment to provide Taiwan with sufficient weapons to defend itself while adopting a policy of strategic ambiguity with regards to whether we would defend them from a Chinese military assault. Unlike Ukraine which has no strategic significance whatsoever to the US, occupying the furthest reaches of eastern Europe, Taiwan is located along the primary international trade routes through which over sixty percent of international commercial shipping passes and produces over sixty percent of the world's semiconductors, but fully ninety percent of the world's advanced semiconductors needed to manufacture cellphones, cars and, most importantly, advanced weapon systems. For this reason, unlike Ukraine, the US does have a national interest in Taiwan’s defense and continued self-rule but this interest is not sufficiently great to trump America's national interest in its own self-preservation.

Preparations for the long-planned Chinese invasion of Taiwan are far more advanced than most people realize. In October of last year, a retired US Navy Captain estimated China has mobilized a huge armada of Roll-On Roll-Off (RORO) dual-use civilian ferries and vehicle transports converting all of them to military use installing ramps that can offload amphibious vehicles off the Taiwanese coast. He estimates they now have a total displacement of 2.4 million tons, which constitutes a sixty percent increase from 2021, while the PLA Navy has increased the number of its amphibious transport ships to a total of 450,000 tons of displacement. It is possible the estimates for this year could be much higher still as the PRC continues to mobilize for war. Altogether, this represents the largest and most capable amphibious assault force in the world.

Over the past several years, we have heard neoconservatives call for the US to change its policy from strategic ambiguity to one of strategic clarity that the US would fight World War Three with China if it invaded Taiwan. Ominously, President Joe Biden has followed their advice pledging every time he has been asked that the US will defend Taiwan militarily and has never walked those statements back. While neoconservatives claim that such a war would be hotly contested, they claim that the US could win a war with the PRC if US leaders merely demonstrated the willpower to do so under the inexplicably naive assumption that the war would not escalate to the nuclear level under the mistaken belief that nuclear wars cannot be won and thus should never be fought. They ignore the fact that it is not willpower that wins wars but rather hard power, most importantly superiority in unconventional weapons, where the US lost its edge to Russia and China many years ago.

Fox News analyst General Jack Keane (USA-Retired), asked about Biden’s pledge that the US would defend Taiwan militarily from a Chinese attack, remarked that it was “very appropriate” for Biden to abandon America’s more than four decade policy of strategic ambiguity despite the increased risk of nuclear war with China over the island nation.

While every US military wargame over the past couple decades has shown the US would likely lose such a war whether it remains conventional or not or even if the US escalates to the nuclear level first, back in January the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) held a series of wargames attempting to rebut the long-time presumption of US military defeat in such a war, claiming that the US won most of the time though at heavy cost. What they didn’t state is that the US only won most of the wargames by rigging them to prohibit the use of the very massive cyber, super-Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP), theater nuclear and strategic nuclear weapons which the PRC would almost certainly employ to ensure its victory over the US.

Neoconservatives seem to be living in an alternate universe to believe that the nuclear genie can be put back in the bottle and we can engage in conventional missile strikes against Chinese nuclear bomber, missile and submarine bases in mainland China and they would not order a nuclear response. Others say that it would be better for the US to fight an unwinnable war with China over Taiwan even if it results in the destruction of the US allowing Americans can ‘die with honor’ rather than to “appease” China by doing nothing to defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression even if standing aside would ensure the survival of the US for half a century to come. However, given the overriding U.S. national security interest in averting a nuclear war with the PRC and ensuring its very survival, the risks of U.S. military intervention in terms of likely Chinese nuclear escalation likely outweigh any perceived national interest in attempting to defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression.

The following is a chilling but realistic scenario that speculates how a Chinese attack on Taiwan could quickly albeit inadvertently spiral into a full-scale nuclear World War Three. It serves as a warning that should inspire caution in US policymakers and incentivize them to pursue a more diplomatic course in response to a Chinese blockade and/or invasion of Taiwan likely to occur sometime next year. Please share it with your members of Congress who you think may be favorably disposed to supporting Biden’s repeated pledges that the US will defend Taiwan militarily.

How a Second Sino-American War over Taiwan Would Likely Unfold

China completes its economic and military mobilization for war which it began in April 2022 increasing the size of the People’s Liberation Army by over fifty percent from 2.2 million military servicemen to 3.5 million and putting its nuclear forces on full-combat readiness alert status.  Taiwan holds its presidential election on January 13, 2024. Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate and current Taiwan Vice President Lai Ching Te, widely believed to be the most pro-Taiwanese independence candidate ever elected, wins a landslide victory. Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) joins other Republican and Democrat leaders to congratulate him on his victory. The PRC warns of harsh consequences against any further move to Taiwanese independence stating that any foreign intervention in internal Chinese affairs will be met with maximum force.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has stated repeatedly that China will crush Taiwan if it makes any move towards independence and, in a secret speech to the Chinese Communist Party over a year ago, vowed China would destroy any country that attempts to support the Taiwanese ‘separatists’ militarily.

On October 1, 2024, President Xi Jinping presides over a massive PLA military parade in Beijing celebrating the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China. A few days later, China sends a satellite signal to all large Chinese transformers installed in the Taiwanese electrical power grid causing them to shut off or feed erroneous signals resulting in its entire electrical power grid being shut down. Then, under the direction of the People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force (PLASSF), Chinese-backed, non-state hackers engage in denial-of-service (DoS) attacks to overload Taiwan’s internet networks and disable its satellites effectively cutting off Taiwan from the world. China then cuts all of Taiwan’s Trans-Pacific cables preventing Taiwanese leaders from even communicating with US leaders using landline phones but does not cut its communications cables with the Chinese mainland so that Taiwanese leaders can still communicate with Chinese leaders.

These Chinese cyberattacks against Taiwan’s critical infrastructure cut off its communication systems and internet access to the outside world. Taiwanese military command, control and communications (C3) are paralyzed while GPS access is cut off effectively decapitating the Taiwanese government and armed forces, making it difficult for their military to coordinate its defenses or operate effectively above the company level and rendering it impossible to use precision strike munitions with any accuracy. Gas pumps are disabled causing Taiwanese military vehicles, aircraft, and warships to quickly run out of fuel along with its cars, trucks, and trains, shutting down Taiwan’s food distribution system. Taiwan’s running water and water purification systems go down along with its emergency medical, fire, and law enforcement services, resulting in a breakdown of law and order as its citizens fight to find food and water for their family members. Chinese triad criminal mafia organizations use roving gangs to loot, pillage and kill well-to-do Taiwanese citizens and take possession of their property. Taiwan’s economy crashes. People attempt to make a run on the banks to withdraw all their cash but all the banks are closed. Backup generators run out of fuel resulting in a loss of power in Taiwanese hospitals causing thousands of sick patients to die while the supply of life-saving pharmaceutical drugs begins to run dangerously low.

Map showing August 2022 PLA Navy Joint Air and Naval Blockade exercise zones along with possible invasion routes. Some experts believe that a full-scale air and amphibious invasion of Taiwan could succeed in capturing the Taiwanese capital of Taipei within as little as two to three weeks.

Chinese leaders feign shock and surprise at this ensuing humanitarian catastrophe, denying responsibility for the power outages and cyberattacks while moving to seize control of Taiwanese airspace and territorial waters offering to send 100,000 PLA troops to provide immediate “humanitarian assistance” to help restore power and restore law and order. Beijing further offers to provide Taiwan with every assistance to quickly restore the power in exchange for Taiwanese leaders signing a peaceful reunification agreement while Chinese agents of influence in Taiwan try to manipulate public opinion to support reunification to end the suffering of Taiwanese citizens. However, Taiwan’s new President, William Lai, rejects Chinese offers to send large numbers of PLA troops to help restore power and prevent the breakdown of law and order.  China responds to him by implementing a blockade of the island, which they refer to as “a quarantine,” cutting off Taiwan from all outside military and humanitarian support.

President Joe Biden huddles with top US national security officials inside the Situation Room and his senior national security advisers and US intelligence officials agree that given that China-based non-state hackers conducted the attack, Chinese leaders almost certainly authorized the cyberattacks on Taiwan. US military leaders are unable to reach our 300 troops in Taiwan training the Taiwanese military in counterinsurgency warfare tactics to prepare them to more effectively combat PLA occupation forces.

Biden is conflicted as to how to respond because China is denying responsibility for the attacks but decides to send three additional carrier strike groups to the South China Sea and Western Pacific to pressure the PRC to break their undeclared Joint Air and Naval blockade of the island nation. The US implements escalating trade and economic sanctions on China sparking harsh protests and severe economic sanctions against the US by the Chinese government. This move sets up the first nuclear superpower naval showdown since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 with the risk it could spiral out of control to the nuclear level risking the very existence of the United States of America. China has spent decades preparing for a potential clash with the United States over Taiwan, constructing the largest nuclear-capable ballistic missile force in the world and deploying much of it along its Taiwan Strait coastline. Accordingly, the main difference with this nuclear superpower standoff is that it is not the United States that enjoys overwhelming theater nuclear and naval superiority, but China.

Beijing announces all foreign flights into Taiwan must be suspended and that all ships entering Taiwanese waters will be subject to inspection by Chinese warships and coast guard vessels for potential contraband which they define as including humanitarian relief supplies including food and fuel. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s new government and military are largely paralyzed and unable to communicate electronically with each other to order a coordinated defensive military response to increased Chinese aggression. PLA Air Force jets massively increase their intrusions into Taiwanese airspace while Taiwanese Air Force fighters operate without their computer networked systems and are forced to ration fuel. Taiwanese surface to air missiles and anti-ship missiles struggle to re-orient to pre-GPS systems making them much less accurate.

Operating under increasing mental and emotional stress, a rogue Taiwanese Air Force commander orders a Taiwanese fighter squadron to fire at PLA fighters flying over Taiwan, shooting down a Chinese fighter jet. President Xi responds by ordering massive missile strikes destroying virtually all of Taiwan’s Air Force and Navy within a few hours including all Taiwanese surface to air missile and anti-ship missile installations. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of Chinese agents conduct sabotage operations sowing confusion behind enemy lines, assassinating Taiwanese political and military leaders and blowing up key military targets. In addition Xi, orders PLA troops to occupy outlying Taiwanese islands including Quemoy and Matsu meeting with little resistance from Taiwanese troops cut off from their higher-level commanders.   

In response to the escalation of the war, President Biden calls President Xi Jinping who demands that Biden “immediately cease all US military provocations” and “stop interfering in Chinese internal affairs on the side of Taiwanese separatists.” He calls for Biden to withdraw the hundreds of US troops deployed at three Special Forces bases at Kinmen, Pangshu and Taiwan’s main island and withdraw all of its naval forces from the South China Sea, threatening “severe consequences” if the US does not. Xi further demands the US join the PRC in pressuring Taiwanese leaders to agree to immediate reunification with the mainland as the price of ending China’s blockade of Taiwan, resuming Taiwanese advanced semiconductor exports to the US and avoiding the outbreak of all-out war which could escalate to the nuclear level.

However, under heavy pressure from neoconservative Republicans and following the advice of a few of his own hawkish Cabinet members, including Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Biden informs Xi that he will only agree to support reunification talks if China ends its air and naval blockade of Taiwan which Xi refuses to do without a firm public US commitment in support of immediate reunification. While many countries condemn this Chinese aggression, international support for the defense of Taiwan remains limited. The UK expresses solidarity with the US in trying to break the blockade of Taiwan while South Korea and the Philippines reiterate their intention to stay out of any direct war between the US and the PRC. Japan and Australia offer to allow US forces to operate from their countries but refuse to commit to join the US in defending Taiwan militarily.

Neoconservative Republican presidential candidates and Congressional Republican leaders denounce Biden as “an appeaser” for not doing more to counter Chinese aggression pressuring Biden to make good on his repeated pledges to defend Taiwan militarily beginning with the establishment of a US enforced no-fly zone over Taiwan. They encourage Biden to “call China’s bluff” by sending large quantities of arms, ammunition, food and fuel to Taiwan escorted by US Navy warships. Biden initially rejects such calls on the grounds “that would mean World War Three.”

A Chinese Type 055 cruiser, which China refers to as a ‘‘destroyer’ despite the fact that it is nearly thirty percent larger than US Navy Ticonderoga class cruisers.

Ultimately, Biden is persuaded by his advisors to send US Navy warships to “defend global democracy” in Taiwan and enforce “the liberal rules based international order” by attempting to break the PLA naval blockade, but US efforts to do so fail as Shenyang J-15 carrier-based jets fire warning shots at US warships including YJ-83K anti-ship cruise missiles at Carrier Strike Group Five led by the US aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, a couple of which are shot down with another missile narrowly missing one of its escort ships. A US F-18 E/F Super Hornet from the Reagan responds by shooting down one of the J-15 Flanker X2 aircraft that fired the missiles. China responds by launching a barrage of 50 YJ-21 hypersonic anti-ship ballistic missiles from the Dalian, a Type 055 cruiser in the Shandong carrier strike group, that overwhelms the Reagan’s carrier strike group’s missile defenses, four of which hit the USS Ronald Reagan and sink it. The PRC again demands the US agree to immediate Chinese reunification with Taiwan to avoid the outbreak of an all-out world war.

US leaders are shocked at China’s successful sinking of one of our 11 aircraft carriers. Neoconservative Republicans demand Biden reject Xi’s demand and “show strength” with a robust US military response to the unprecedented sinking of a US aircraft carrier for the first time since World War Two, ostensibly for the purpose of deterring further Chinese military escalation. They call on Biden to conduct a conventional missile strike on a Chinese dual-capable nuclear bomber, dual-capable nuclear missile, or nuclear submarine base in mainland China. Under increasing pressure from hawkish Republicans and his hawkish advisors, Biden decides to order what he deems to be “a proportional response” by ordering the USS Key West, a Los Angeles-class nuclear-powered attack submarine, to launch a Tomahawk cruise missile strike against the PLA Navy’s heavily defended Yulin Naval Base, which is headquarters of the South Sea Fleet and the home port of the PLA Navy aircraft carrier Shangdong whose aircraft attacked and sunk the USS Dewey. While most of the missiles are shot down by Chinese missile defenses, several missiles land only a few kilometers away from China’s massive underground submarine base protected by hundreds of feet of earth and stone, which houses all of China’s nuclear missile submarines sparking alarm in Beijing.

China responds to the US conventional missile attack on the Chinese port by conducting a massive cyber and counterspace attack against the US homeland that disables, destroys or takes control of all US satellites within two hours.  Much like Taiwan’s power grid, America’s power grid utilizes hundreds of large Chinese transformers with back-doors that enables the PRC to turn them off or provide false readings causing widespread power failures without the US being able to detect foreign interference. Following this massive Chinese cyberattack, the US suffers the same fate as Taiwan with the US collapsing in slow motion into a failed state with government unable to function, the military unable to fight effectively, businesses unable to operate, emergency services shut down and our citizens unable struggling to get access to the basic necessities required to sustain life resulting in a breakdown of law and order. Biden responds by declaring martial law for the first time since the Civil War, assuming emergency powers and indefinitely postponing the November 2024 presidential election as President Volodymyr Zelensky did in Ukraine, making himself America’s first dictator in all but name. China also engages in massive air and missiles strikes against US military bases in the western Pacific including all major US military bases in Japan, the Philippines, the northern Marianas and Guam severely degrading US military forces in the region and succeeding in sinking many more US warships. These attacks cause tens of thousands of US military casualties.

In response, Biden orders the US to retaliate with a massive cyberattack on China but the massive Chinese cyber first strike has massively degraded US cyberwarfare capabilities while China’s cyber defenses are much stronger than ours causing the US cyber counterattack on the PRC to be far less damaging. Meanwhile, the approximately 100,000 PLA Special Forces and Airborne troops who have infiltrated into the US over the past four years begin conducting sabotage operations in US, assassinating political and military leaders, and releasing a biological weapon into the US which like COVID-19 was developed in the Wuhan Institute biological weapons lab but is much deadlier, against which they have already been vaccinated, causing millions of Americans to perish.

In the wake of the US cyberattack on the PRC, President Xi then gives his vassal, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, the green light to invade South Korea. Kim engages in massive artillery and rocket strikes against US and South Korean forces all along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) killing thousands of US troops and wounding thousands more in the first two days of the war. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin, having been made aware of his close military ally’s plans to attack Taiwan months in advance takes advantage of China taking down US and British satellites by staging a comprehensive nationwide cyberattack on Ukraine and unleashing a massive Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine from the Kharkiv region with the objective of rolling up and surrounding all Ukrainian military forces in southeastern Ukraine east of the Dnipro River. Putin uses the 500,000 Russian reserve troops for the offensive which he had been holding back in reserve as a hedge in the event of an outbreak of a direct war between Russia and NATO. The offensive scores rapid successes against Ukrainian forces which are desperately short of manpower and cut off from communications with their headquarters due to the massive cyber and counterspace attacks.

Britain, France and Poland respond by sending a NATO expeditionary force to prevent Russia from taking control of Kyiv and central Ukraine establishing a no-fly zone over western and central Ukraine. Russia, in turn, responds by launching a massive counterspace and cyberattack on NATO paralyzing its ability to defend against a Russian invasion of the Baltic states, which Russia successfully occupies within two weeks after Russian forces launch an offensive in southern Lithuania to take the Suwalki Gap to link up with Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave, capturing NATO expeditionary forces in the Baltics who attempt to flee in a Dunkirk style rescue operation. Putin then detonates a super EMP weapon over NATO causing their resistance to Russia’s invasion of Poland to collapse. Subsequent to Russia’s defeat of NATO, all of the leaders of the former Soviet republics agree to subordinate their foreign and defense policies to Russia in exchange for their continued independence, essentially relegating them to satellite status.

Meanwhile, nearly 100,000 PLA Special Forces and Airborne troops, having successfully crossed the US southern border during the previous five years have organized into battalions and begin seizing control of major US Western ports, most importantly Los Angeles, having already picked up most of their heavy weapons from diesel trucks carrying Chinese containers from their container ships. They begin conducting sabotage operations and attacking US military bases taking advantage of the chaos that has ensued from the Chinese cyberattacks that blinded the US military, cut off our communications and took down our critical infrastructure. Russian-supplied Club-K supersonic cruise missiles launched from containers, each of which carry four missiles, previously unloaded at major US ports, begin moving to the interior of the US following the outbreak of the crisis, via railcars and diesel trucks enabling China to launch nuclear missiles at us from within our own territory if ordered to do so.

Map showing a hypothetical Russian occupation of the Baltic states which some US think tanks have assessed the Russian army could overrun within as little as four days time.

At the same time, the Islamic Republic of Iran, a formal Russian and Chinese ally since it joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization last year, reveals it has secretly built dozens of long-range nuclear missiles hidden in underground bases and begins attacking and destroying US military bases in the Persian Gulf region and occupying most of Iraq with Iranian troops including Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iranian forces overwhelm and overrun the 2,500 US troops in Iraq and its 900 troops in Syria killing and capturing most of our military servicemen. In addition, Iran orders its proxy Hezbollah to hit use all its 130,000-150,000 missiles and rockets to rain unprecedented destruction upon Israel and turn the Israeli capital of Tel Aviv into a smoking ruin. The Hezbollah rocket strikes overwhelm Israeli missile defenses and strike Israeli government ministry buildings killing some Israeli senior political and military leaders causing Israel to respond by invading Lebanon to eradicate Hezbollah and by assassinating senior leaders of the IRGC. Iran responds by sending tens of thousands of troops to defend its allies Syria and Lebanon. The US and its allies now face the prospect of a direct war not merely with one nuclear power but with four.

Despite the massive Chinese cyberattack having seriously degraded America’s nuclear command, control and communications (NC3) network, Biden issues orders to launch a couple of Trident II SLBM’s armed with tactical nuclear warheads from our two Ohio nuclear missile submarines on patrol in the Pacific to destroy both PLA Navy carrier strike groups in retaliation to the destruction of all US military bases in the western Pacific. Chinese leaders misinterpret the launches of a couple of Trident II SLBM’s as a US strategic nuclear first strike against the PRC causing Beijing to respond by launching three DF-41 ICBMs from its 360 newly built missile silos in Western China.

Picture of a Club K container erector being transported by a diesel truck. The range of the 3M-14/3M-14T land attack variant is reportedly 1,500-2,500 kilometers so truck-fired Club K missiles could be fired from Florida and still be in range of Washington, DC. The US, by contrast, has no mobile long-ranged land-based nuclear missile systems and has no plans to develop any.

Confronted with news of an incoming Chinese nuclear first strike, Biden orders the commander of US Space Command, recently tasked with responsibility for national missile defense, to shoot down the incoming missiles. But General Stephen Whiting informs him that due to the fact that official US policy for decades has been not to defend the US against Russian and Chinese nuclear missile attack, he regrets to inform the President that has no ability to shoot them down causing Biden to slump in his chair dejectedly at the news. Nearly paralyzed with fear, incredulity and incomprehension, he decides to enforce Presidential Decision Directive (PDD)-60, which essentially states that the US will not launch its nuclear missiles until the first nuclear impacts have been confirmed on US soil. Before he is able to launch a retaliatory strike, a Chinese super-EMP weapon is detonated at 280 miles over the center of the U.S. severely degrading America’s Nuclear Command, Control and Communications (NC3) system, immediately followed by a Chinese decapitation strike on Washington DC from a Chinese nuclear weapon in orbit with essentially no warning. The Chinese super-EMP attack ends up killing 275 million Americans within a year.

Meanwhile, Chinese DF-41 ICBM nuclear re-entry vehicles successfully destroy US Strategic Command Headquarters at Offutt Air Force base near Omaha, Nebraska as well as all three of our nuclear bomber, both our submarine bases, sinking all ten of our nuclear missile submarines in port and US nuclear storage facilities destroying eighty percent of America’s nuclear arsenal including over half of our operationally deployed nuclear arsenal. Russian Poseidon UUVs destroy all four Ohio nuclear submarines at sea including the two in the Atlantic and the two in the Pacific at a 50-kilometer range, completing the destruction of two out of three legs of the US nuclear triad, an action that Putin considers as payback for years of US backed Ukrainian strikes against Russian strategic military targets inside Russian territory.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), who was away from the nation’s capital at the time of the Russian decapitation nuclear first strike, is sworn in as America’s 47th President after President Biden is killed in the nuclear decapitation strike and Vice President Kamala Harris perishes when Air Force Two being shot down by China’s super-EMP attack. However, President Johnson is unable to launch a nuclear retaliatory strike against the PRC due to the fact that all three nuclear ‘footballs’ have been destroyed. Accordingly, he reluctantly decides to do what he still can to preserve the lives of the Americans who have survived by notifying Chinese leaders of the US offer of unconditional surrender to dissuade them from launching any additional nuclear or super-EMP attacks on the US homeland, realizing the US is now defenseless against enemy invasion and occupation. Following, the US surrender, Taiwanese leaders agree to immediate and unconditional reunification with the PRC allowing hundreds of thousands of PLA troops to occupy Taiwan. Japan, the Philippines and Australia also signal their acceptance of Chinese domination in the Indo-Pacific region.

Conclusion

Many US leaders continue to operate under the delusion that the US is the strongest military power on Earth while it is debatable whether it has been since it lost its nuclear superiority over the Soviet Union half a century ago and thus wrongly presume the US would ultimately prevail in any full-scale war with the PRC. Former White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany misleadingly refers to the US as “the world’s hegemonic power”. But as well-regarded foreign policy realist theorist Dr. John Mearsheimer has stated, the US was never really a global hegemon as it is more of a seapower than a landpower and has never had a sufficiently large global military presence to dictate terms to Russia or China who are the strongest regional powers in their respective regions. Certainly, it is accurate to say the US remains the dominant financial power with, at least in theory, the largest sphere of influence. However, it is unfortunate to note that by almost any other measure the US is more of a declining power which has already been eclipsed in virtually every area of great power comparison by our principal nuclear superpower rival—the People’s Republic of China.

As a student of history, the comparison I think would be the most apt is that the US now finds itself in a position similar to the German Empire on the eve of the outbreak of World War One. Like Germany in 1914, the US is currently the second largest economic and industrial power in the world with the second largest navy and like Germany our military alliance is significantly overmatched by that of our enemies while our prospects for victory in a great power war are low. Acknowledging the Western alliance’s position of overall military inferiority relative to the Sino-Russian military alliance, particularly in terms of strategic nuclear weapons, theater nuclear weapons and super EMP weapons, would inspire more caution in terms of the willingness of US leaders to risk war with our nuclear-armed adversaries. There has never been a full-scale war between nuclear powers in history and the ramifications of such a war would be exceedingly dire.

Much like Germany in 1914, war with the strongest great power of our time, the PRC, which boasts the largest army, the largest navy, the largest coast guard and the largest nuclear capable ballistic force in the world by far, is by no means inevitable. That said, as long as America continues to pursue its failed grand strategy of liberal hegemony which seeks to expand America’s sphere of influence all along Russia’s and China’s borders resulting in conflicting spheres of influence with our nuclear superpower adversaries, it will remain the most likely outcome. Like German leaders in 1914, US leaders need only the strategic imagination and the political courage to make the difficult strategic compromises involving strategic restraint, with regards to both the war in Ukraine and the coming war over Taiwan, to avert catastrophe and ensure America’s national survival—compromises short of direct military great power conflict.

In the case of Germany, had the Kaiser rescinded his ‘blank check’ to Austria-Hungary to fight Serbia and informed Austria-Hungary would not support any Austro-Hungarian military action against Serbia beyond the British “Stop in Belgrade” compromise solution which he supported, World War One would have been entirely averted. Failing that, the Germans only had to refrain from invading Belgium to avert war with Great Britain and go on the offensive against Russia to ensure ultimate military victory as Britain and the US would have remained neutral. Instead, the execution of the Schlieffen Plan, which included a full-scale German invasion of Belgium, ensured British entry into the war on the side of France which made German victory in the war all but impossible.

In the case of America’s ongoing Cold War with Communist China, the only way the US can hope to win it is by averting a direct military conflict over Taiwan which would be an unwinnable war that would be catastrophic for the US and its treaty allies in the Pacific likely resulting in our destruction. My grand strategy to prevent Communist China from succeeding in becoming the world’s economic hegemon goes against the prevailing conventional wisdom of our time that the US must defend Taiwan militarily which has been championed by our failed and discredited leaders for the past few decades, but it outlines a clear and achievable strategy to ensure America’s survival. US leaders, in both parties, have refused to learn from the lessons of modern history and have brought us to the brink of an unnecessary nuclear war with not one but two allied nuclear superpower adversaries that could bring a swift end to America’s existence with minimal warning.

US leaders would be wise to realize that the nightmare scenario outlined above by 2025 is far more plausible than they would like to believe. Accordingly, they should take immediate action to negotiate an end to the conflict with China over Taiwan to forestall a potential nationwide Communist Chinese cyber first strike on the US homeland while drawing a US nuclear redline around US treaty allies in the Indo-Pacific region to prevent it from ever occurring.

Recent Media Interviews

August 18th—Interview with Jonathan Hollerman on EMP Task Force Channel to discuss the EMP threat from the Sino-Russian alliance and the likely outcome of the war in Ukraine. Here is the link to the interview.

October 10th—Interview with Jon Twitchell on his Talk with Jon show to discuss the rising threat of the war in Ukraine and the coming war in Taiwan could escalate to World War Three with Russia and/or China. Here is the link.

October 11th-Interview with Greg Allison on his podcast to discuss the prospects for escalation up to and including US military intervention in the Israel-Hamas War, whether we could win a tactical or strategic nuclear war with Russia or China and how we can use diplomatic negotiation to ensure America’s national survival. Here is the link.

October 12th-Interview with Chayse Leavitt on his “We Are Here” podcast to discuss the war between Israel and Hamas terrorists. Here is the link.

October 30th-Interview with Paul Mills on his Off-Grid Farming podcast to discuss the increasing threat of World War Three in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Here is the link to the interview.

November 2nd—Interview with Brannon Howse on his Worldview Weekend Broadcast Network to discuss the chances that the Israel-Hamas War will escalate to a direct war with Iran including major Iranian cyberattacks on US critical infrastructure. Here is the link.

November 3rd—I gave a presentation to the Highland Meeting Group about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as well as the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. I will be sharing a copy of my presentation as well as a video of my briefing and the sometimes contentious question and answer session that followed for paid subscribers next week.

Upcoming Interviews

November 9th—Interview on “Are You Ready?” podcast discussing the chances that the war in Israel could escalate to a regional Middle Eastern War or even World War III. Here is the link to the interview.

November 21st—Talk with Jon to discuss my recent Real War news articles and answer the question of whether America is on the verge of World War III in Ukraine and the Middle East

© David T. Pyne 2023

David T. Pyne, Esq. is a former U.S. Army combat arms and Headquarters staff officer, who was in charge of armaments cooperation with the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the Americas from 2000-2003, with an M.A. in National Security Studies from Georgetown University. He currently serves as Deputy Director of National Operations for the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and as a member of the Committee on the Present Danger-China. He recently co-authored the best-selling new book, “Catastrophe Now--America’s Last Chance to Avoid an EMP Disaster” and his new book “A Nuclear Posture Review for Advanced Technology Weapons” will be published in spring 2024. He also serves as the Editor of “The Real War” newsletter at dpyne.substack.com and as a contributor to “The National Interest”. Here is a link to his interview archive. He may be reached at emptaskforce.ut@gmail.com.