President Trump's neocon advisors continue to misinform him into believing Putin doesn't want peace, Russia is losing the war and that a peace deal would take several months to negotiate.
Yes I completely agree! If Ukraine refuses peace, then Trump should withdraw all US personnel from Ukraine, close all our CIA spy bases and biolabs and cut off all economic and military aid to Ukraine and tell Zelensky he is on his own! Ukraine can't keep fighting Russia for very long without US support. He would probably opt to flee Ukraine so General Zaluzhny could restore democracy and make Ukraine great again!
If the Ukes were smart, they would figure out a way to technically lose the war so that they would break up the agreements with Blackstone and the banks.
No way Ukraine can win this war. The truth is they lost the war three years ago and have just refused to admit it and stop fighting. Instead of fighting for their independence and sovereignty, they are now more dependent and more of a vassal state to the US than they have ever been before.
Regarding point 3 - the ICC is going to have to rescind the arrest warrant for Putin to make good the part about no war crimes prosecutions. How can the ICC be forced to do that?
Trump can't threaten to leave something the U.S. isn't part of. The hypocrisy of the U.S. to kindly offer up an empty promise to not do something it isn't contracted to do in the first place is glaring.
The U.S. isn't a signatory to the I.C.J. either. As a matter of fact the U.S. has promised to send its army into the Hague, which is in the sovereign territory of the Netherlands, and forcibly take away any U.S. citizen that is before the court.
So in the end the ploy that Mr. Pyne offers up as a negotiating term, is a nothing burger and he either knows it or should know it.
Points taken from Putin’s speech just before inauguration of Trump: We have never refused dialogue. No Truce! The goal is long term peace based on respect for all nations living in this area. Settlement not truce. It is the same goal as with the special military intervention.
Quote from Trump’s inaugural address. https://www.whitehouse.gov/ "We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into. My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier."
Putin and his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have been talking clearly to the world about their valid position since the "special military operation" began on 24 February 2022. If Trump has to answer to his advisors we can forget peace. Putin has been dealing patiently with the dishonesty of the West for the last ten years. His patients is extraordinary. His rhetoric is truthful and open. He is trustworthy. Trump’s job is to be the grease on the rails and make a settlement happen. But Putin has no illusions. He will sink his cleats into the dirt and defend Russia against the deceitful forces that have been trying to make war … which is nothing to be afraid of because his defense of Russia is valid. Putin hates war. He is not after land or riches or power. If only Scott Ritter could be the one to advise Trump. Trump could have the fun of a lifetime making peace.
Putin: We see Trump's statements about the desire to restore contacts with Russia!
Putin is willing to accept a cease-fire but only if the prospects for a permanent peace settlement are high. The Kellogg plan offers zero chance of a final peace agreement so its unlikely that Russia will accept a cease-fire unless its terms are revised by President Trump in Russia's favor. Putin can be trusted to keep a peace agreement with acceptable terms for Russia because that was the whole point of Russia's Special Military Operation! Not to conquer Ukraine but to get the US and Ukraine to sign an agreement getting NATO out of Ukraine and demilitarizing it along the Finnish Cold War model--ie Finlandization.
I've watched and listened most of Putins speeches and also those who comment on Putin. At no time have its I read or heard Putin or Lavarov say that Russia will accept any ceasefire. They are rightfully convinced that a ceasefire is what got them deeper into this mess and that it is a trap. That it is just an opportunity for the West to rearm Ukraine and prolong the killing.
They look at what happened to Syria as a lesson in what will result from a ceasefire.
The West only wants a ceasefire because Ukraine is losing. You can be sure the West wouldn't seek a ceasefire if it's proxy was winning.
There's also the reality that Merkel, Holland and Petro Poroshenko all said that the sole purpose of the Minsk Accords was to arm Ukraine.
Putin regrets trusting the West. He chastised himself for not having gone into Ukraine sooner when it wouldn't have cost so many lives.
As a matter of fact he's the only national leader involved in this who has expressed real sorrow over his failures, the loss of life and to have worked hard to miminize the death toll.
Trump has mouthed the words of regret over loss of life but his actions have only engendered more death. Holding out for leverage or sending in more arms in order to buy time is spitting on the graves and wounds of the men.
I'm 66 years old and I can't recall a single promise the U.S. government has made that it hasn't found a way to break if it served its purpose.
Trump can't be taken seriously when it comes to wanting peace. This is a man who never once talked about working to end the war when he was in office the first time. He rather did everything to exacerbate the war.
This is a man who still believes and talks about America in terms of the U.S. having been endowed by God with some heavenly Manifest Destiny. And Mike Huckabee, his ambassador to Israel talks about Israel having a God given right that is 3500yrs old, to occupy the O.T. land of Israel. Even though the Romans destroyed the Jewish state of Israel and sent the Jews packing.
These people aren't very smart and they have a horrible understanding of Biblical theology. The Jews aren't God's chosen people.
They have zero right to the former land of Israel that they can prove. The O.T. isn't valid proof of their claim since the promises of a deity aren't acceptable as evidence.
Whereas Biden clearly had dementia that rendered him unqualified to be president. Trump's problem is that he lives in an alternate reality of his own making.
I think Presidents are unusually dependent on their advisors for the information they get. It takes a President of iron will and a deep understanding of foreign policy to go against them. I think Trump has the ability to override their bad advice in furtherance of achieving his noble goal of peace with Russia but the question is how long will it take before it does so. It might be 3-6 months from now.
If I’m not mistaken, what you’ve said is more or less what John Mearsheimer has been saying over and over again for a long time. And as far as I can tell it’s exactly spot on.
Beyond that, since you’re well educated, smart, articulate and reasonable you might be interested in taking my “course”. My course gets at the root of why these type of problems persist and how best to overcome them.
It's not a question of might. It's just is. But he picked his advisors and he choose to accept money from his donors.
It's as Colonel Douglas MacGregor said of Trump when he said that Trump is a poor butcher. In other words Trump listens to and empowers people who aren't supportive of his agenda.
The other problem with Trump is his narcissism. He thinks he is a person who gets things done but he really isn't.
Trump measures his success by how much he can tick off of his to do list. He doesn't have patience for long drawn out assessment of an issue. Any man who could talk about finding an end to this war in 24 hours isn't a very deep thinker.
Putin has all of the right personality traits that Trump lacks to be considered a good leader.
"1. Ukraine pledges to never join NATO but will become a Major Non-NATO Ally."
You are delusional if you think that Russia will ever agree for Ukraine to be in any kind of alliance with the US. Russia could not care less how the US calls such an arrangement, be it de jure NATO membership, de facto NATO membership or being a US puppet 'ally' informally and somehow specifically outside of NATO. Do you think the Russians are idiots who can be tricked by the US calling their Ukrainian proxy a "Major Non-NATO Ally"?
The ONLY two options acceptable to Russia is Ukraine's permanent neutrality with no alliances with anyone ever, no matter what label or nature of such alliances may be, or a pro-Russian Ukraine.
"3. A four-kilometer-wide demilitarized zone shall be created along the entire length of Ukraine’s border with the four Russian-controlled oblasts, policed by UN and OSCE peacekeepers from neutral countries, to prevent future conflict."
Again, more delusions. Russia is not going to agree to any foreign troops stationed in Ukraine, no matter if you call them "The Care Bears brigade," "UN and OSCE peacekeepers from neutral countries," or "NATO troops."
"The U.S. and Russia agree to begin negotiating a New START II Treaty with a limit of 3,500 operational strategic nuclear weapons."
Not going to happen because Russia has no reason whatsoever to trust the US to uphold any treaties. Russia sees the US as non agreement capable (which is 100% correct).
"In exchange for Russia committing not to interfere in the Western Hemisphere, the U.S. commits to a policy of non-interference in all former Soviet republics which are not NATO members."
There is no way whatsoever Russia would believe any American pledges of non-interference in these countries, or in Russia's domestic affairs. Russia knows that there is zero chance such commitments would survive longer than the second Trump's term. Moreover, there is no Russian "interference in the Western Hemisphere" and there is not going to be any. Russia is not doing any regime changes in the Western Hemisphere, it's not building any military bases that could threaten the US in the Western Hemisphere, it's not making any alliances with anyone in the Western Hemisphere and has no plans whatsoever to do any of these things. What are you talking about here?
"my assertion that while NATO membership is not possible for Ukraine given it was the very reason Russia invaded in the first place, Major Non-NATO ally status might be acceptable to Moscow, which would make it a “win-win” agreement for the US, Russia and Ukraine. The administration could credibly point to a peace deal guaranteeing Ukrainian security and independence"
The US has exactly zero interest in "Ukrainian security and independence." If Ukraine, which is controlled by a pro-US puppet regime, being forced to get itself destroyed in this proxy war to you seems like the US values "Ukrainian security and independence," you need a reality check. Russia knows perfectly well that the US has zero interest in these things, and that the only use of Ukraine for the US is to use it as a proxy against Russia. Nobody in the US cares about making a “win-win” agreement for Ukraine, Ukraine is nothing but a proxy and a source of cannon fodder, and its interests in no way affect any of America's policy decisions.
"The U.S. and Russia solemnly pledge to one another that neither side will go to war against each other in the event they are attacked by a third party."
What value does such a pledge by the US have? Zero.
Major Non-NATO Ally status could be negotiated out if the Russians object but I think you're mistaken that Russia doesn't want a peace deal with the US. A comprehensive peace deal recognizing Moscow's legitimate security interests is the only way they can achieve their longtime objectives which I reference in the article. Also, if the US agreed to major concessions with Russia in writing, chances are very high Trump would honor the treaty and his successors very well might as well ensuring a lasting peace between the US and Russia and averting the perceived need for Russia to ever invade Ukraine again.
As naive as it might seem, at the end of the day, what motivates and drives human behavior and nation states behavior needs to be that which is outlined in my “course”. It would be a tall order, and maybe impossible to make this change, but it’s probably our best chance at survival as a species through the coming decades and centuries.
My course lays out a good basis for a political platform and for the basis of artificial intelligence if AI is to become a force for good for humans rather than a tool which is used to hasten our demise.
So far I haven’t gotten any traction in what I’ve had to say - which is t surprising when someone like John Mearsheimer has been jumping up and down for decades without anyone in our policy establishment heading his advice.
…my course is worthwhile and it’s what we need to do…
David, I suggest you get on the phone ASAP and call President Trump and tell him as I have that he is being fed lies, propaganda, and utter bullshit from these stupid neo-con globalist advisers of his. They are wicked and ungodly for misrepresenting the truth and lying to the president! Your plan is right on, for the most part! And I am confident that God will severely punish any kind of stupid decision on the part of the US and/or NATO in this matter. NATO and most of the European leaders are nothing less than tools of the Devil and antichrist. NATO needs to be either reformed or dismantled. And now is the right time for President Trump to do so for the sake of us all.
In an ideal world Trump would pull the US out of NATO as he repeatedly said he wanted to during his first term which would have entirely averted the war in Ukraine. However, I think pulling all US ground troops and tactical nuclear weapons out of Europe would suffice for a Russian reset that would bring a lasting peace in Europe.
The US in NATO has played an important role in keeping the countries in Europe from getting at each others necks since the end of world war 2. It was obviously set up to counterbalance the Soviet Union but when the Soviet Union fell we in the west (the US) made the mistakes that John Mearsheimer has repeatedly pointed out. George Kennan pointed out these mistakes as well.
(My course tangentially covers this kind of thing).
Yes the US should have either invited Russia to join NATO at the end of the Cold War as Gorby and Yeltsin and subsequently Putin accepted or else dissolve NATO entirely. Doing so ironically would have greatly enhanced European security far above the existential threats that NATO expansion all along Russia's western frontier has created today.
I don't see Russia agreeing to a cease fire under any circumstances no matter what the US tries to offer, except in case the AFU withdraws from administrative borders of the regions Russia claims as its own and both the US and Ukraine state that they will agree to Ukraine's permanent neutrality, demilitarization and denazification. Unless that happens somehow, they will be no cease fire. No amount of sanctions or promises to end sanctions will change that.
If the sanctions were more of a priority for Russia than its security concerns, Russia would've never started the war in the first place, not to mention the fact that agreeing to a cease fire when you're winning and there's nothing your adversary can realistically do to stop you from winning is not something Russia (or any sane government in Russia's place) would consider doing.
I think that Putin's demand for the remainder of the four annexed oblasts was a negotiating tactic. I think he would be perfectly happy to concede that in exchange for the US accepting all of Russia's other peace terms. Western economic sanctions against Russia have hurt the US and its allies far more than they have hurt Russia whose economy has been on overdrive of late. Putin has been calling for a cease-fire since March 2022 quite literally but now that he sees the Kellogg peace plan is structured to create a cease-fire rather than a permanent peace agreement, Putin is no longer willing to agree to a cease-fire without preconditions. Trump should concede Ukraine NATO membership and Russian control of the four oblasts along the current line of control in advance of any cease-fire agreement.
Oh, I forgot to say that Ukraine must cede all of the annexed territories up to their original boundaries they had the day prior to Ukraine's uniateral declaration of independence.
And, Russia didn't invade Ukraine. Russia went in at the direct behest of the leaders of the annexed Oblasts, who were seeking protection from Ukrainian genocide of the Russian population.
The only nation that violated Ukrainian sovereignty, territorial integrity and political sovereignty was the U.S. when it went in with the State Department, CIA, Pentagon and undermined Ukrainian sovereignty from within.
8 long years passed between the U.S. backed putsch against the democratically elected government of Yanukovych and the U.S. installation of Victor Poruschenko.
Putin made every attempt to avoid war while the West, U.S., made every attempt to start a war by provoking Putin to go offsides.
It's no different than when a player on an opposing football team purposely or accidentally makes a movement that misleafs his opponent to take action prior to the snap of the football. In other words the U.S. engaged in entrapment.
Putin behaved reasonably and now he's reclaiming both people and land who are and that is rightfully Russian.
We have to realize that the EU has a military dimension that takes a backseat to NATO obligations. But kicks into action for non-NATO EU members. Russia will accept nothing else than complete neutrality.
My take from the Tucker Carlson interview with Putin is that Russia does not trust the West in abiding to a treaty agreement. I am interested in how Trump is going to re-establish that trust. A president cannot go against the MIC and claiming a 5% GDP NATO allocation indicates he is not going to do that. The Russians probably view this all as biden time to rearm and fight another day. They will talk but probably view their best option to conquer the better part of Ukraine.
Russia agreed to Ukraine EU membership in March 2022 with full knowledge of the security implications. That seems a fair compromise to me to keep them out of NATO particularly since even Biden had zero intention of ever letting Ukraine into NATO understanding that would mean World War Three with Russia. Trump can easily re-establish that trust by agreeing to most of Russia's requested peace terms and most importantly signing a mutual security treaty with most of the points Russia requested in December 2021. No US leader would ever sign such an agreement unless they intended to abide by it.
And no E.U. The E.U. is the political arm of U.S. in Europe. The E.U. is therefore obligated to enforce E.U. anti Russian sanctions. The Ukraine must be non-aligned/neutral.
It must be free to interact with Russia and Europe without being pulled into the military orbit of either. The U.S. can't say to Ukraine. thou shalt not,have anything to do with Russia or BRICS. The BRICS organization isn't a military one and nor are its members allowed to sanction each other.
Big difference from the incestuous relationship between the E.U. and NATO.
This proposal is insincere. First I'd like to say that any legal or quasi legal connections that the U.S. seeks to have unilaterally with Ukraine as designated under the auspices of any U.S. law or even any Ukrainian Merry rigged law are only a Trojan Horse that will make Ukraine an outright ally. There is no such thing as a none allied ally.
The MNNA is Orwellian double speak. The interpretation and implementation is left purely up to the U.S. without any Russian input or vetro power.
This is just one more poisoned pill just like the Taiwan Relations Act which clearly states that Taiwan, although not a MNNA designated, will be treated as if it were. And this goes against both the letter and spirit of the One China policy to which the U.S. appended its signature pror to creating its out to its supposedly solemn commitment.
The MNNA is a military cooperation agreement in every way but name only. The agreement provides for the forward stationing of military assets, including radioactive ones, on the territory of the partner nation. Depleted uranium is a nuclear instrument of war that is toxic to humans and the environment. The U.S. has repeatedly used deleted Uranium in its military operations in other countries including Ukraine.
This proposal falls far short of Putin's goal of arriving at a security architecture for Europe that includes Russia. It doesn't call for the withdrawal of all NATO countries back to NATO'S original boundaries during the Cold War and a reduction in NATO numbers to the original members.
It doesn't call for the elimination of all anti-Russian operations on any of the former territories of the USSR. This means the cessation of asymmetric warfare, CIA regime change operations, the maintenance of biomass etc.
It doesn't call for the designation of all the former Warsaw Pact countries as neutral countries.
It is totally ridiculous that the U.S. would offer to not enforce the I.C.C. arrest warrant because the U.S. doesn't recognize the I.C.C.
The U.S. must return all of Russia's national foreign assets and those of Russian citizens as an unconditional precondition to any agreement.
for Ukraine, Trump should follow the Aiken Doctrine. Senator Aiken said during Vietnam, we should declare victory and leave.
In the immortal words of Martin Mull, "It's too hard to say au revoir, let's just say hors d'oeuvre"
Yes I completely agree! If Ukraine refuses peace, then Trump should withdraw all US personnel from Ukraine, close all our CIA spy bases and biolabs and cut off all economic and military aid to Ukraine and tell Zelensky he is on his own! Ukraine can't keep fighting Russia for very long without US support. He would probably opt to flee Ukraine so General Zaluzhny could restore democracy and make Ukraine great again!
My only disagreement with this is the”if” part.
If the Ukes were smart, they would figure out a way to technically lose the war so that they would break up the agreements with Blackstone and the banks.
https://thelonghillinstitute.substack.com/publish/posts/detail/106212959?referrer=%2Fpublish%2Fposts
Losing a war militarily sucks, but winning one that leaves you prostrate to foreign interests is no bed of roses either.
No way Ukraine can win this war. The truth is they lost the war three years ago and have just refused to admit it and stop fighting. Instead of fighting for their independence and sovereignty, they are now more dependent and more of a vassal state to the US than they have ever been before.
Yup. Just get out of the international agreements.
Regarding point 3 - the ICC is going to have to rescind the arrest warrant for Putin to make good the part about no war crimes prosecutions. How can the ICC be forced to do that?
Thump can threaten to leave the ICC if they don't on the grounds its in conflict of the peace treaty with Russia. I suspect they would cave.
Trump can't threaten to leave something the U.S. isn't part of. The hypocrisy of the U.S. to kindly offer up an empty promise to not do something it isn't contracted to do in the first place is glaring.
The U.S. isn't a signatory to the I.C.J. either. As a matter of fact the U.S. has promised to send its army into the Hague, which is in the sovereign territory of the Netherlands, and forcibly take away any U.S. citizen that is before the court.
So in the end the ploy that Mr. Pyne offers up as a negotiating term, is a nothing burger and he either knows it or should know it.
Points taken from Putin’s speech just before inauguration of Trump: We have never refused dialogue. No Truce! The goal is long term peace based on respect for all nations living in this area. Settlement not truce. It is the same goal as with the special military intervention.
Quote from Trump’s inaugural address. https://www.whitehouse.gov/ "We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into. My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier."
Putin and his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have been talking clearly to the world about their valid position since the "special military operation" began on 24 February 2022. If Trump has to answer to his advisors we can forget peace. Putin has been dealing patiently with the dishonesty of the West for the last ten years. His patients is extraordinary. His rhetoric is truthful and open. He is trustworthy. Trump’s job is to be the grease on the rails and make a settlement happen. But Putin has no illusions. He will sink his cleats into the dirt and defend Russia against the deceitful forces that have been trying to make war … which is nothing to be afraid of because his defense of Russia is valid. Putin hates war. He is not after land or riches or power. If only Scott Ritter could be the one to advise Trump. Trump could have the fun of a lifetime making peace.
Putin: We see Trump's statements about the desire to restore contacts with Russia!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4o4zfVJ3-9U&t=348s
Putin is willing to accept a cease-fire but only if the prospects for a permanent peace settlement are high. The Kellogg plan offers zero chance of a final peace agreement so its unlikely that Russia will accept a cease-fire unless its terms are revised by President Trump in Russia's favor. Putin can be trusted to keep a peace agreement with acceptable terms for Russia because that was the whole point of Russia's Special Military Operation! Not to conquer Ukraine but to get the US and Ukraine to sign an agreement getting NATO out of Ukraine and demilitarizing it along the Finnish Cold War model--ie Finlandization.
I've watched and listened most of Putins speeches and also those who comment on Putin. At no time have its I read or heard Putin or Lavarov say that Russia will accept any ceasefire. They are rightfully convinced that a ceasefire is what got them deeper into this mess and that it is a trap. That it is just an opportunity for the West to rearm Ukraine and prolong the killing.
They look at what happened to Syria as a lesson in what will result from a ceasefire.
The West only wants a ceasefire because Ukraine is losing. You can be sure the West wouldn't seek a ceasefire if it's proxy was winning.
There's also the reality that Merkel, Holland and Petro Poroshenko all said that the sole purpose of the Minsk Accords was to arm Ukraine.
Putin regrets trusting the West. He chastised himself for not having gone into Ukraine sooner when it wouldn't have cost so many lives.
As a matter of fact he's the only national leader involved in this who has expressed real sorrow over his failures, the loss of life and to have worked hard to miminize the death toll.
Trump has mouthed the words of regret over loss of life but his actions have only engendered more death. Holding out for leverage or sending in more arms in order to buy time is spitting on the graves and wounds of the men.
I'm 66 years old and I can't recall a single promise the U.S. government has made that it hasn't found a way to break if it served its purpose.
Very good! Rings true. Thank you.
Trump was also on tv claiming Russia has suffered 1,000,000 dead
In the war
He seems in no hurry to end the war and has not even spoke to Putin despite claiming the US and Russia are very close to war I don’t get it
Trump can't be taken seriously when it comes to wanting peace. This is a man who never once talked about working to end the war when he was in office the first time. He rather did everything to exacerbate the war.
This is a man who still believes and talks about America in terms of the U.S. having been endowed by God with some heavenly Manifest Destiny. And Mike Huckabee, his ambassador to Israel talks about Israel having a God given right that is 3500yrs old, to occupy the O.T. land of Israel. Even though the Romans destroyed the Jewish state of Israel and sent the Jews packing.
These people aren't very smart and they have a horrible understanding of Biblical theology. The Jews aren't God's chosen people.
They have zero right to the former land of Israel that they can prove. The O.T. isn't valid proof of their claim since the promises of a deity aren't acceptable as evidence.
Whereas Biden clearly had dementia that rendered him unqualified to be president. Trump's problem is that he lives in an alternate reality of his own making.
Amen. Maybe real foreign policy should be left to policy, military, and historical experts.
Wouldn't that be nice! Unless of course the experts subscribed to a false policy or historical consensus of course.
The greatest scientific advancement came from those who worked outside of consensus.
Trump seems to be getting bad advice from most of his advisors and most of the advisors themselves are bad.
If the regular people can research backgrounds, why can’t Trump?
Makes one wonder what the end game is really all about. There are many theories and none of them look good.
Just asking questions.
I think Presidents are unusually dependent on their advisors for the information they get. It takes a President of iron will and a deep understanding of foreign policy to go against them. I think Trump has the ability to override their bad advice in furtherance of achieving his noble goal of peace with Russia but the question is how long will it take before it does so. It might be 3-6 months from now.
Thanks for your reply.
I just hope the correct decisions are made in the end to get us going in the right direction.
Always appreciate your knowledge and insight.
Thanks for keeping us informed !!!
If I’m not mistaken, what you’ve said is more or less what John Mearsheimer has been saying over and over again for a long time. And as far as I can tell it’s exactly spot on.
Beyond that, since you’re well educated, smart, articulate and reasonable you might be interested in taking my “course”. My course gets at the root of why these type of problems persist and how best to overcome them.
Do you have a link to your course. What kind of course is it exactly?
Yes I mentioned that in my article and its concerning. I am worried he might be getting bad advice from some of his advisors.
It's not a question of might. It's just is. But he picked his advisors and he choose to accept money from his donors.
It's as Colonel Douglas MacGregor said of Trump when he said that Trump is a poor butcher. In other words Trump listens to and empowers people who aren't supportive of his agenda.
The other problem with Trump is his narcissism. He thinks he is a person who gets things done but he really isn't.
Trump measures his success by how much he can tick off of his to do list. He doesn't have patience for long drawn out assessment of an issue. Any man who could talk about finding an end to this war in 24 hours isn't a very deep thinker.
Putin has all of the right personality traits that Trump lacks to be considered a good leader.
"1. Ukraine pledges to never join NATO but will become a Major Non-NATO Ally."
You are delusional if you think that Russia will ever agree for Ukraine to be in any kind of alliance with the US. Russia could not care less how the US calls such an arrangement, be it de jure NATO membership, de facto NATO membership or being a US puppet 'ally' informally and somehow specifically outside of NATO. Do you think the Russians are idiots who can be tricked by the US calling their Ukrainian proxy a "Major Non-NATO Ally"?
The ONLY two options acceptable to Russia is Ukraine's permanent neutrality with no alliances with anyone ever, no matter what label or nature of such alliances may be, or a pro-Russian Ukraine.
"3. A four-kilometer-wide demilitarized zone shall be created along the entire length of Ukraine’s border with the four Russian-controlled oblasts, policed by UN and OSCE peacekeepers from neutral countries, to prevent future conflict."
Again, more delusions. Russia is not going to agree to any foreign troops stationed in Ukraine, no matter if you call them "The Care Bears brigade," "UN and OSCE peacekeepers from neutral countries," or "NATO troops."
"The U.S. and Russia agree to begin negotiating a New START II Treaty with a limit of 3,500 operational strategic nuclear weapons."
Not going to happen because Russia has no reason whatsoever to trust the US to uphold any treaties. Russia sees the US as non agreement capable (which is 100% correct).
"In exchange for Russia committing not to interfere in the Western Hemisphere, the U.S. commits to a policy of non-interference in all former Soviet republics which are not NATO members."
There is no way whatsoever Russia would believe any American pledges of non-interference in these countries, or in Russia's domestic affairs. Russia knows that there is zero chance such commitments would survive longer than the second Trump's term. Moreover, there is no Russian "interference in the Western Hemisphere" and there is not going to be any. Russia is not doing any regime changes in the Western Hemisphere, it's not building any military bases that could threaten the US in the Western Hemisphere, it's not making any alliances with anyone in the Western Hemisphere and has no plans whatsoever to do any of these things. What are you talking about here?
"my assertion that while NATO membership is not possible for Ukraine given it was the very reason Russia invaded in the first place, Major Non-NATO ally status might be acceptable to Moscow, which would make it a “win-win” agreement for the US, Russia and Ukraine. The administration could credibly point to a peace deal guaranteeing Ukrainian security and independence"
The US has exactly zero interest in "Ukrainian security and independence." If Ukraine, which is controlled by a pro-US puppet regime, being forced to get itself destroyed in this proxy war to you seems like the US values "Ukrainian security and independence," you need a reality check. Russia knows perfectly well that the US has zero interest in these things, and that the only use of Ukraine for the US is to use it as a proxy against Russia. Nobody in the US cares about making a “win-win” agreement for Ukraine, Ukraine is nothing but a proxy and a source of cannon fodder, and its interests in no way affect any of America's policy decisions.
"The U.S. and Russia solemnly pledge to one another that neither side will go to war against each other in the event they are attacked by a third party."
What value does such a pledge by the US have? Zero.
Major Non-NATO Ally status could be negotiated out if the Russians object but I think you're mistaken that Russia doesn't want a peace deal with the US. A comprehensive peace deal recognizing Moscow's legitimate security interests is the only way they can achieve their longtime objectives which I reference in the article. Also, if the US agreed to major concessions with Russia in writing, chances are very high Trump would honor the treaty and his successors very well might as well ensuring a lasting peace between the US and Russia and averting the perceived need for Russia to ever invade Ukraine again.
Unfortunately you’re correct.
As naive as it might seem, at the end of the day, what motivates and drives human behavior and nation states behavior needs to be that which is outlined in my “course”. It would be a tall order, and maybe impossible to make this change, but it’s probably our best chance at survival as a species through the coming decades and centuries.
My course lays out a good basis for a political platform and for the basis of artificial intelligence if AI is to become a force for good for humans rather than a tool which is used to hasten our demise.
So far I haven’t gotten any traction in what I’ve had to say - which is t surprising when someone like John Mearsheimer has been jumping up and down for decades without anyone in our policy establishment heading his advice.
…my course is worthwhile and it’s what we need to do…
David, I suggest you get on the phone ASAP and call President Trump and tell him as I have that he is being fed lies, propaganda, and utter bullshit from these stupid neo-con globalist advisers of his. They are wicked and ungodly for misrepresenting the truth and lying to the president! Your plan is right on, for the most part! And I am confident that God will severely punish any kind of stupid decision on the part of the US and/or NATO in this matter. NATO and most of the European leaders are nothing less than tools of the Devil and antichrist. NATO needs to be either reformed or dismantled. And now is the right time for President Trump to do so for the sake of us all.
The US leaving NATO would help
In an ideal world Trump would pull the US out of NATO as he repeatedly said he wanted to during his first term which would have entirely averted the war in Ukraine. However, I think pulling all US ground troops and tactical nuclear weapons out of Europe would suffice for a Russian reset that would bring a lasting peace in Europe.
The US in NATO has played an important role in keeping the countries in Europe from getting at each others necks since the end of world war 2. It was obviously set up to counterbalance the Soviet Union but when the Soviet Union fell we in the west (the US) made the mistakes that John Mearsheimer has repeatedly pointed out. George Kennan pointed out these mistakes as well.
(My course tangentially covers this kind of thing).
Yes the US should have either invited Russia to join NATO at the end of the Cold War as Gorby and Yeltsin and subsequently Putin accepted or else dissolve NATO entirely. Doing so ironically would have greatly enhanced European security far above the existential threats that NATO expansion all along Russia's western frontier has created today.
I don't see Russia agreeing to a cease fire under any circumstances no matter what the US tries to offer, except in case the AFU withdraws from administrative borders of the regions Russia claims as its own and both the US and Ukraine state that they will agree to Ukraine's permanent neutrality, demilitarization and denazification. Unless that happens somehow, they will be no cease fire. No amount of sanctions or promises to end sanctions will change that.
If the sanctions were more of a priority for Russia than its security concerns, Russia would've never started the war in the first place, not to mention the fact that agreeing to a cease fire when you're winning and there's nothing your adversary can realistically do to stop you from winning is not something Russia (or any sane government in Russia's place) would consider doing.
I think that Putin's demand for the remainder of the four annexed oblasts was a negotiating tactic. I think he would be perfectly happy to concede that in exchange for the US accepting all of Russia's other peace terms. Western economic sanctions against Russia have hurt the US and its allies far more than they have hurt Russia whose economy has been on overdrive of late. Putin has been calling for a cease-fire since March 2022 quite literally but now that he sees the Kellogg peace plan is structured to create a cease-fire rather than a permanent peace agreement, Putin is no longer willing to agree to a cease-fire without preconditions. Trump should concede Ukraine NATO membership and Russian control of the four oblasts along the current line of control in advance of any cease-fire agreement.
Oh, I forgot to say that Ukraine must cede all of the annexed territories up to their original boundaries they had the day prior to Ukraine's uniateral declaration of independence.
And, Russia didn't invade Ukraine. Russia went in at the direct behest of the leaders of the annexed Oblasts, who were seeking protection from Ukrainian genocide of the Russian population.
The only nation that violated Ukrainian sovereignty, territorial integrity and political sovereignty was the U.S. when it went in with the State Department, CIA, Pentagon and undermined Ukrainian sovereignty from within.
8 long years passed between the U.S. backed putsch against the democratically elected government of Yanukovych and the U.S. installation of Victor Poruschenko.
Putin made every attempt to avoid war while the West, U.S., made every attempt to start a war by provoking Putin to go offsides.
It's no different than when a player on an opposing football team purposely or accidentally makes a movement that misleafs his opponent to take action prior to the snap of the football. In other words the U.S. engaged in entrapment.
Putin behaved reasonably and now he's reclaiming both people and land who are and that is rightfully Russian.
We have to realize that the EU has a military dimension that takes a backseat to NATO obligations. But kicks into action for non-NATO EU members. Russia will accept nothing else than complete neutrality.
My take from the Tucker Carlson interview with Putin is that Russia does not trust the West in abiding to a treaty agreement. I am interested in how Trump is going to re-establish that trust. A president cannot go against the MIC and claiming a 5% GDP NATO allocation indicates he is not going to do that. The Russians probably view this all as biden time to rearm and fight another day. They will talk but probably view their best option to conquer the better part of Ukraine.
Russia agreed to Ukraine EU membership in March 2022 with full knowledge of the security implications. That seems a fair compromise to me to keep them out of NATO particularly since even Biden had zero intention of ever letting Ukraine into NATO understanding that would mean World War Three with Russia. Trump can easily re-establish that trust by agreeing to most of Russia's requested peace terms and most importantly signing a mutual security treaty with most of the points Russia requested in December 2021. No US leader would ever sign such an agreement unless they intended to abide by it.
tmuch moneyin it to stop
And no E.U. The E.U. is the political arm of U.S. in Europe. The E.U. is therefore obligated to enforce E.U. anti Russian sanctions. The Ukraine must be non-aligned/neutral.
It must be free to interact with Russia and Europe without being pulled into the military orbit of either. The U.S. can't say to Ukraine. thou shalt not,have anything to do with Russia or BRICS. The BRICS organization isn't a military one and nor are its members allowed to sanction each other.
Big difference from the incestuous relationship between the E.U. and NATO.
This proposal is insincere. First I'd like to say that any legal or quasi legal connections that the U.S. seeks to have unilaterally with Ukraine as designated under the auspices of any U.S. law or even any Ukrainian Merry rigged law are only a Trojan Horse that will make Ukraine an outright ally. There is no such thing as a none allied ally.
The MNNA is Orwellian double speak. The interpretation and implementation is left purely up to the U.S. without any Russian input or vetro power.
This is just one more poisoned pill just like the Taiwan Relations Act which clearly states that Taiwan, although not a MNNA designated, will be treated as if it were. And this goes against both the letter and spirit of the One China policy to which the U.S. appended its signature pror to creating its out to its supposedly solemn commitment.
The MNNA is a military cooperation agreement in every way but name only. The agreement provides for the forward stationing of military assets, including radioactive ones, on the territory of the partner nation. Depleted uranium is a nuclear instrument of war that is toxic to humans and the environment. The U.S. has repeatedly used deleted Uranium in its military operations in other countries including Ukraine.
This proposal falls far short of Putin's goal of arriving at a security architecture for Europe that includes Russia. It doesn't call for the withdrawal of all NATO countries back to NATO'S original boundaries during the Cold War and a reduction in NATO numbers to the original members.
It doesn't call for the elimination of all anti-Russian operations on any of the former territories of the USSR. This means the cessation of asymmetric warfare, CIA regime change operations, the maintenance of biomass etc.
It doesn't call for the designation of all the former Warsaw Pact countries as neutral countries.
It is totally ridiculous that the U.S. would offer to not enforce the I.C.C. arrest warrant because the U.S. doesn't recognize the I.C.C.
The U.S. must return all of Russia's national foreign assets and those of Russian citizens as an unconditional precondition to any agreement.