Negotiate a Compromise Peace Agreement to Avert Nuclear War with Communist China Over Taiwan

If combined with the implementation of peace agreements with Russia and North Korea and strengthening our strategic nuclear deterrent, the US and its treaty allies would be much safer and more secure

President Joe Biden meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 leaders' summit in Bali, Indonesia, November 14, 2022.

Since taking power in 2012, Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly declared China will achieve renunciation with Taiwan by force if necessary. While Chinese leaders would prefer not to fight a war against the United States to reunify Taiwan by force, they have expressed a willingness to do so if Taiwan does not agree to a timeline for peaceful reunification very soon. Beijing is believed to be planning to invade Taiwan within the next two to four years.

For most of the past century, China was comparatively weak militarily. Now the People’s Republic of China (PRC) boasts the largest army, navy, coast guard and nuclear capable ballistic missile force in the world. Today, the PRC is a nuclear superpower on par with the United States and is on track to exceed the US in terms of operationally deployed strategic nuclear weapons by next year with a recently released USAF intelligence briefing stating that at current building rates China will have 4,000 nuclear warheads by the end of the decade. In July 2001, Russia and China became formal allies and now overmatch the US in a number of key military technological areas, most importantly in terms of unconventional weapon systems. China’s GDP now exceeds America’s by twenty percent while its manufacturing industrial base is twice as large with the ability to produce modern weapon systems five to six times faster than we can.

America’s increasingly risky policy of exerting overlapping spheres of influence with Russia and China and deploying US military forces along their borders and adjacent seas while fighting an ever-escalating proxy war with Russia in Ukraine risks the outbreak of an unnecessary and avoidable Third World War which could cost the lives of hundreds of millions. Meanwhile, tensions between the US, the PRC and Taiwan are continuing to escalate. In May 2022, there were leaked reports that the PRC had begun mobilizing its economy and its military for war against the US over Taiwan. Since that time, the PRC has engaged in an unprecedented number of military exercises in the Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea including increasingly frequent and historically unprecedented crossings of the Median Line by a large number of PLA Navy warships and PLA Air Force combat aircraft preparing to attack Taiwan.

China is amassing an increasing number of powerful nuclear-capable weapon systems that could serve to deter US military intervention including hypersonic cruise missiles and both land and air-launched anti-ship ballistic missile systems. Taiwan is located eighty-five times closer to the Chinese mainland than the US mainland with few US supply bases in the region, all of which are highly vulnerable to Chinese pre-emptive strikes. All US military wargames conducted during the past two decades show the US losing badly in a war over Taiwan thanks to China’s increasing theater conventional military and nuclear superiority. US allies have declined to commit to join in defending Taiwan against Chinese aggression for fear of Chinese retribution raising the possibility that if the US went to war to defend Taiwan, it might have to fight the PRC alone.

Map showing the range of Chinese nuclear-capable bomber, hypersonic cruise missiles and anti-ship ballistic missile systems

Another recent wargame conducted last year showed that if a Taiwan war escalated to the nuclear level, the US lost, whether it or China escalated to the nuclear level first. This is likely due in large part to the fact that the US, which once boasted 1,200 nuclear weapons in Okinawa alone during the Cold War, currently has no tactical nuclear weapons stationed in the region aside from a dozen or so W-76-2 warheads on our two Ohio nuclear ballistic missile submarines operating in the Pacific Ocean at any given time.

Unfortunately, they would prove useless as if the US launched a Trident II SLBM with a trajectory taking it anywhere near the PRC, it would undoubtedly be assumed to be a US nuclear first strike likely triggering a full- scale nuclear exchange. Since as General Glen Van Herck, who heads up US Northern Command (NORTHCOM) has stated, US policy is not to defend the US against Russian or Chinese nuclear missile attack and since the US has virtually no capability to do so, the US homeland could very possibly be obliterated by a Chinese nuclear first strike depending on whether they opted to undertake a counterforce/decapitation or countervalue attack. Even if a US nuclear retaliatory strike caused tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of Chinese deaths, Chinese leaders have stated they would be willing to lose up to half of their population to win a war against the U.S as they would still have 700 million citizens left.

The US missed its best chance to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by supplying nuclear weapons to Taiwan in the 1990’s and encouraging Taipei to deploy them atop Short-Range Ballistic Missiles to hold China’s southern coastal cities at risk. If the US were to station nuclear B-52 bombers in Taiwan now, it would likely trigger war with China, as Beijing would likely act swiftly to pre-empt them using conventional or even nuclear-armed hypersonic missiles.

While the official US policy of strategic ambiguity has served Taiwan well, China’s patience has come to an end and President Xi Jinping has directed the People’s Liberation Army to be ready for war. Realistically, no US pledge to defend Taiwan, increased weapon shipments to Taiwan or expanded US naval deployments to the South China Sea would likely be sufficient to deter Beijing from achieving its paramount goal of national unification with Taiwan, which they have waited nearly three-quarters of a century to realize.

Accordingly, the US faces stark and increasingly unattractive choices when it comes to Taiwan, which is widely believed to be the most dangerous potential flashpoint in the world--a ticking time bomb waiting to explode--that threatens to engulf the US and its allies in a catastrophic and, very possibly, existential conflict. The US is now presented with four options. First, it could retain its policy of strategic ambiguity and wait until the PRC blockades and invades Taiwan with some experts predicting China could capture Taipei and force Taiwan to capitulate within two weeks of an invasion. A few years ago a couple of former top US military officials estimated China could force Taiwan’s surrender within a few days before the US could respond, effectively forcing a US President to accept a fait accompli. Second, the US could establish the same strategic clarity with China regarding Taiwan that it provided to Russia with regards to Ukraine before the Russian invasion in February 2022 by stating it would not defend Taiwan militarily. That would compel Taiwan to negotiate a reunification agreement with Beijing to avoid being invaded, but without US mediation the terms would likely be much more onerous.

Third, the US could declare it would defend Taiwan’s independence militarily, which would be far more likely to provoke a Chinese invasion than to deter it. Then, we could fight a global war with China over Taiwan which could begin with a counterspace first strike on all US satellites and a massive pre-emptive cyberattack and on the US homeland, likely escalating to the super Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP)/nuclear level within a few weeks, taking a dangerous gamble that would risk America’s very existence as a country.

While the US is believed to have a powerful space-based clandestine counterspace weapon system, space warfare heavily favors the aggressor so if China struck first without warning it might be disabled before it could be utilized. North Korea, a longtime Chinese vassal state, would almost certainly invade South Korea with a massive barrage of North Korean artillery and rockets decimating US troops along the DMZ while US military forces in Japan would be decimated by Chinese hypersonic missile strikes potentially resulting in tens of thousands of US casualties during the first week of a Second Sino-American War.

Map showing the increasing size and power of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which includes most of the Eurasian supercontinent. Russian President Vladimir Putin has described it as “a reborn Warsaw Pact.”

Meanwhile, Russia might join the fight, under the terms of its military alliance with Beijing, invading the Baltic states and the rest of Ukraine aided by massive cyber, super EMP and/or tactical nuclear strikes with Ukraine unable to coordinate its defenses effectively without satellite access. With its military capabilities seriously depleted by recent massive weapons transfers, the US would be unable to successfully fight, let alone win, a three-front war. Fourth, it could mediate an agreement which aims to meet China’s minimum requirements for reunification that preserves Taiwan’s freedoms, secured by the retention of its armed forces. As I explain below, this last option is probably the least objectionable. The case for pursuing a policy of peaceful co-existence is compelling given the increasing risk of a nuclear apocalypse with China and its allies Russia and North Korea.

Ultimately, the only way to prevent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the next several years is to negotiate a diplomatic compromise agreement that recognizes the national interests of both sides. From a US perspective, the primary objective is for Taiwan to remain free from direct Communist control whereas for China the paramount objective is reunification with Taiwan based on the concept of “One China-Two Systems.” These two objectives may not be as diametrically opposed as they may seem at first glance. Former Chinese President Deng Xiaoping declared his support for reunification on this basis, stating that Taiwan could keep its political and economic system and even retain its own armed forces if it recognized Beijing’s sovereignty over Taiwan.

The United States could mediate such an agreement to prevent a potential war between the nuclear superpowers and ensure Taiwan remains free. The key would be how to structure a reunification agreement to best ensure Taiwan retains its self-rule in perpetuity. Initial confidence building measures that could be taken might include the signing of a PRC-Taiwan Free Trade Agreement and Taiwan changing its official name from the Republic of China to Taiwan. The US could also withdraw all 200 of its troops from Taiwan, which serve as little more than a nuclear tripwire to tie the hands of US presidents to wage war against the PRC if it attacks Taiwan, and commit to the principle of “non-interference” in cross-strait Chinese affairs. In addition, the US and the PRC would commit not to deploy its military forces, including stratospheric balloons, within 200 kilometers of each other with the US ending all naval warship sorties in the Taiwan Strait in order to avoid unnecessary and destabilizing provocations. All lethal US military assistance to Taiwan would cease except for parts needed for Taiwan to maintain its existing military weapon systems. Furthermore, the US would sign a non-aggression pact with the PRC committing both nations not to go to war with each other as long as both sides refrain from attacking each other’s allies.

One promising solution to resolve the conflict might be a gradual economic integration of the PRC and Taiwan along the lines of the European Union allowing Taiwan to retain most of its sovereignty but without the implementation of a common currency. This solution was first raised by former Taiwanese Vice President Annette Lu a few years ago, which she repeated in May 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Chinese leaders have not expressed any opposition to her proposal suggesting they might be willing to consider it. This would be followed by the negotiation of a common market and customs union between the PRC and Taiwan as well as the signing of a “National Unification Treaty” creating a new supranational entity, perhaps known as “the Chinese Union” (CU). The Treaty would also provide for CU citizenship for all PRC and Taiwanese citizens permitting them the right to freedom of movement to live and work in either country while preserving the right of Taiwanese citizens to emigrate if they so choose. There would be a firm near-term timeline for the finalization of this new Chinese Union between 2025-2029. A mutual security agreement would be signed between the PRC and Taiwan in conjunction with this treaty.

The Chinese Union could be headquartered in Shanghai, Hong Kong or even Taipei. In view of its substantially larger population, the PRC could have a 60-40% majority in a newly elected CU Congress with key decisions requiring a two-thirds vote including the election of a Chinese Union President with powers approximating the President of the European Commission. All Taiwanese representatives in the CU Congress would hail from the Kuomintang (KMT) Party, and its “Pan-Blue coalition” partners, which Chinese leaders view much more favorably than the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which has traditionally supported Taiwanese independence because most KMT politicians support the 1992 ‘One China’ consensus. . A new flag would be created for the CU combining the symbols of the Chinese and Taiwan ese flags demonstrating unity and solidarity replacing Taiwan’s current national flag.  Both sides would agree to have international Maps would also be updated showing China and Taiwan joined together as the Chinese Union.

A Chinese Union Council, with a much more equitable representation of PRC and Taiwanese leadership, chaired by the CU President (presumably Xi Jinping), would coordinate joint foreign and defense policy as well as joint economic investment and research and development projects. Perpetual self-rule for Taiwan would be guaranteed under the Treaty and it would continue to have its own free market based economic, education, legal and immigration system with guaranteed religious freedoms and Taiwanese, state and local police forces, monetary and tariff policy. The power to tax and spend would remain exclusively in the hands of each side. There would continue to be free, democratic, multi-party elections but all Taiwanese candidates and all parties that advocate independence comprising the “Pan-Green coalition” would be banned from participating in the elections likely resulting in the KMT returning to being the ruling party. Taiwan could also continue to negotiate commercial, economic and trade agreements.

This National Reunification Treaty would include provisions for mutual defense and security providing for increased PRC-Taiwan military cooperation and intelligence sharing. The Chinese Union could have a joint air and missile defense system and would conduct small-scale joint military exercises once a year or so with occasional PLA Navy port visits to Taiwan but no PLA military bases on its main island of Formosa. Taiwan’s armed forces would continue to exist as a separate entity from the PLA at present force levels.

This proposed agreement would only be undertaken in conjunction with the implementation of a broader US grand strategy designed to peacefully counter China’s rise. Furthermore, the U.S. would only agree to mediate this Chinese reunification agreement with Taiwan in exchange for the PRC transferring control of its Panama Canal ports to the United States as well as closing its spy facilities and cutting off all military aid to Communist Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. The US would acknowledge Taiwan as part of China’s sphere of influence in exchange for a massive reduction of Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere. Such an agreement would serve to fully restore US hegemony in its own geopolitical backyard and prevent China from shutting down the Panama Canal in the event of a major conflict, while making the US much more safe and secure in the process by averting an unnecessary and destructive war over Taiwan.

Such an agreement should also allow Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) to relocate its manufacturing plants to the United States in advance of reunification along with its human capital if they chose to do so. The U.S. should act proactively to ensure continued access to advanced Taiwanese semiconductor chips by providing very lucrative financial and tax incentives for TMSC to relocate its main manufacturing facilities to the U.S. as expeditiously as possible.

The agreement would also provide that in the event Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) opted to remain in Taiwan, it would continue to sell advanced semiconductors to the US and its allies unhindered and unimpeded by the PRC. In the event China materially violated the terms of this agreement in a way that seriously infringes on Taiwan’s self-rule or if it invaded another country, the US could respond by completely decoupling the US economy from China. The US would also strive to form a US-led trade bloc to counter the PRC not only with our western allies but with Russia and India as well after negotiating an armistice agreement with Russia ending the war in Ukraine and signing a mutual security agreement with them to neutralize the Sino-Russian military alliance.

Ideally, such a reunification deal would also be linked to a mutually acceptable diplomatic resolution of the Korean conflict. In exchange for North Korea freezing the size of its nuclear arsenal, destroying its nuclear weapons production facilities and crashing its two super-EMP satellites orbiting over the United States greatly reducing the existential threat of North Korean super-EMP attack to the US homeland, the US would lift economic sanctions on North Korea and would mediate the signing of a peace treaty ending the Korean War. This could be followed by a full withdrawal of US troops from the Korean peninsula while maintaining the US nuclear guarantee to defend South Korea along with Japan, the Philippines and Australia. It would then be possible for the liberalization of relations between North and South Korea as well, including normalized diplomatic and trade relations.

Lest Chinese leaders delude themselves into believing US agreement to conclude a negotiated settlement to prevent war over Taiwan constituted an act of weakness, the US would act swiftly to massively expand the size and strength of its nuclear deterrent by following Russia in suspending the New START Treaty while reassembling and redeploying all 2,000 strategic nuclear warheads in reserve. We would also double the number of US nuclear bombers by converting all 60 B-1 bombers back to the nuclear role, double our submarine launched nuclear warheads by increasing the OPTEMPO of our nuclear submarines to Cold War levels and triple the number of land-based nuclear warheads while redeploy all 43 remaining MX ICBMs. Furthermore, we would redeploy nuclear warheads on all US Navy aircraft carriers, cruisers, destroyers and attack submarines.

In addition, the US would replace Presidential Decision Directive (PDD)-60 with its “launch on impact” nuclear posture with a “launch on warning” posture, permanently increase our nuclear alert level to DEFCON 3 (roughly equivalent to Russia’s lowest nuclear alert status), quadruple the number of our nuclear ballistic missile submarines in the Pacific and place our nuclear bombers back on 24 hour strip alert. Finally and perhaps most importantly, the US would build a comprehensive, multi-layered national missile defense system with over 5,000 ABM interceptors and harden our electrical power grid against super EMP attack in accordance with the recommendations of a book I recently co-authored entitled, “Catastrophe Now-America’s Last Chance to Prevent an EMP Disaster.”

While this proposed Sino-Taiwanese agreement and Korean peace agreement would be far from ideal, they would go a long way to ending the increasing threat of nuclear war that now confronts the US and its allies both over the China-Taiwan conflict and the conflict between North and South Korea. I believe it is imperative that US leaders be willing to entertain new unconventional thinking and pursue robust diplomatic options with our nuclear adversaries to come up with such a new strategic framework that would facilitate a peaceful resolution of both conflicts if the US and its allies are to avoid a potentially catastrophic nuclear conflict that could cost hundreds of millions of lives.

© David T. Pyne 2023

David T. Pyne, Esq. is a former U.S. Army combat arms and Headquarters staff officer, who was in charge of armaments cooperation with the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the Americas from 2000-2003, with an M.A. in National Security Studies from Georgetown University. He currently serves as Deputy Director of National Operations for the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and as a member of the Committee on the Present Danger-China. He recently co-authored the best-selling new book, “Catastrophe Now--America’s Last Chance to Avoid an EMP Disaster."  He may be reached at emptaskforce.ut@gmail.com.

Recent Media Interviews

August 16th—Going Underground show on GHAF TV hosted by Afshin Rattansi to discuss Biden’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine and how to end it. This interview should be available soon.

August 18th—Interview with Jonathan Hollerman on EMP Task Force Channel to discuss the EMP threat from the Sino-Russian alliance and the likely outcome of the war in Ukraine.

August 22nd—Interview with Carlos Carrillo on the Living Hope Esparanza Podcast discussing the chances of whether the war in Ukraine will escalate to World War III with Russia. Here is a link to the interview.

August 25th—Interview with former Polish Sejm Deputy Mateusz Piskorski to discuss the war in Ukraine and how to end it before it escalates to a full-scale war between Russia and NATO.

August 26th—Interview with Jon Twitchell on the Republic Broadcasting Network discussing the death of Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and the latest developments in the war in Ukraine. Here is a link to the interview.

September 8th—Studio Interview on Jason Preston’s “We Are the People podcast focusing on the threat from Communist China and how to win America’s Cold War with them.

Upcoming Media Appearances

September 11th—Interview with Dr. Pascal Lottaz on his Neutrality Studies podcast to discuss my new China-Taiwan Compromise Peace Plan

September 14th—I will deliver a presentation in Logan, Utah to the Utah Citizens for the Constitution and Cache County Conservatives on the history and future of US Foreign & National Security Policy