Putin's Nuclear Trump Card to Win the War in Ukraine

Republication of my April 22nd article predicting Russia's annexation of all occupied Ukrainian territories and warning Ukrainian battlefield successes might provoke a Russian nuclear attack

Picture of nuclear self-propelled artillery firing a low-yield tactical nuclear artillery shell

(Author’s Note—This article was submitted to The National Interest on April 22, 2022. Unfortunately, TNI declined to publish it for unknown reasons perhaps because it showed how easily Russia could defeat Ukraine if Putin chose to. I am republishing it here because TNI published a very similarly themed article over five months later on October 2, 2022 entitled, “If Putin Nukes Ukraine, Russia Could Win the War.” which has been one of the top two most read articles on the site over the past six days. Despite being written five and a half months ago, I believe my article remains quite relevant given reports that Putin has relocated with his family to Russia’s vast underground nuclear command center at Yamantau Mountain as he makes the final decision whether to engage in a nuclear demonstration attack against Ukraine. I have listed my most relevant predictions in bold text. I published a shorter version of this article with what I had assumed might be objectionable content to TNI removed in “The Real War” newsletter on April 26th after I was informed they had decided not to publish it.

Putin's Trump Card to Win the War in Ukraine

Original title and text as submitted to TNI for publication on April 22, 2022

The Russo-Ukrainian war is entering a more dangerous phase as the US and NATO continue to escalate their conflict against Russia with ever increasing economic sanctions and massive numbers of weapons to kill as many Russian troops and destroy as many Russian tanks and other military assets as possible. Having failed to achieve Russia’s original goal of regime change by capturing the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, Putin has fallen back to a much more limited objective of carving out a narrower buffer zone for Russia in eastern and southern Ukraine.

Western leaders continue to underestimate Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unbroken determination to continue Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine until he retakes control of Ukraine’s eastern Donbass region, either by force or as part of a peace deal ending the war, even if it means he must escalate to the use of Russia’s most powerful cyber, Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) or even nuclear weapons in order to do so. Even worse, they have failed to provide him with a face-saving exit ramp which would enable him to withdraw Russian troops from most of the territory Russia has occupied as part of a negotiated peace agreement which recognizes its vital security interests, further increasing the chances the conflict will spiral up to the nuclear level.