20 Comments
May 30Liked by David T. Pyne

I agree with your statement “ As I have been saying, the way we will know when World War Three starts is when the power goes out in the US and never comes back on again.” This is the most cost effective way to disable America and its military capability.

Expand full comment
author

Yes it is and Russia or China could do it without warning if we keep provoking them to.

Expand full comment
May 30Liked by David T. Pyne

Thank you for this, David.

I would add some references that you might find useful. The first is a link to a Council of Europe unofficial English translation of the Ukraine constitution : https://rm.coe.int/constitution-of-ukraine/168071f58b.

I would treat any interpretation of this, including my own, as secondary to that of a qualified Ukrainian lawyer. That said, last week I posted some material on another forum that you may find of interest (it's mostly about the language laws, but the final sentence refers to a special provision that the constitution *cannot* be altered during a conflict!):

"Quite apart from Russia's direct interest in Sevastapol, and the status of the Crimean *Autonomous* SSR before and after its poison-pill gifting to Ukraine, we should consider the Ukrainian internal issues. Notably, the Ukrainian constitution, and the 2014 post-coup haste in treating Articles 10, 53, and 138 as if they didn't exist. ;) See (unofficial) translation at https://rm.coe.int/constitution-of-ukraine/168071f58b. AFAIK this never has been remedied; ditto for last Monday's expiry of the presidential term of Vlodomyr Zelensky, noting that the material parts of the constitution expressly cannot be amended (or "suspended") just because a war is going on or "martial law" has been declared."

The second reference is to the academic Peter Turchin's recent book "End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration". Again, for context I today posted material which included the following (my immediate purpose being a question about Yanukovych - but Turchin's 15-page passage may be of particular interest to you, along with his wider analysis of the USA's woes):

"...coincidentally today I’ve been reading Peter Turchin’s End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration. Within chapter 7, “State Breakdown”, there’s a 15-page discussion pp175–189 on Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, focused on understanding why Ukraine collapsed into revolution twice post-2000 and also collapsed economically, while Russia and Belarus remained ***relatively***(!) stable politically and economically.

Turchin explains there are four competing oligarchic clans that have controlled Ukraine as a plutocracy since independence. Yanukovych (formerly the Governor of Donetsk) was the front-man for oligarchs Akhmetov, which personally chose 60 of the Party of Regions list, and Firtash, who personally chose 30. Unfortunately, when Yanukovych was elected president in 2010 with the victory of the Donetsk clan, he failed to stay within the accepted Ukrainian presidential MO of funneling Ukraine’s income back to his sponsors. Instead he started diverting too much of it to try to create a fifth clan of oligarchs built around his own family. This in effect invited his own supporting oligarchs Akhmetov and Firtash to turn against him and join forces with the competing oligarchs - such as Poroshenko of the Volhynia clan (who later publicly boasted about his organization of Maidan, for which he personally took credit). This left Yanukovych in an extremely precarious position, because shorn of reliable oligarchic support he was left with nothing more useful than popular support: fatefully concentrated in the east.

The crunch came when Yanukovych looked at the “fine print” of his (ironically!) desired EU agreement and realized that its extreme austerity requirements would evaporate his popular support and end his reign almost immediately. So he went for Russia’s offer, simply because it had no strings attached that would hurt the Ukrainian people and thus end his own grip on power. But in so doing he couldn’t help annoying the pro-EU folk. The rest is history.

Five years later yet another oligarch, Kolomoisky of the Dnipropetrovsk clan, successfully put up Vlodomyr Zelensky as his own puppet to do in his rival Poroshenko (see above) - but that’s another story! ..."

Best wishes. HTH!

Expand full comment

“President Abraham Lincoln held a presidential election in 1864 during the height of the Cold War…’

Think you mean Civil War ;<)

Expand full comment
author

Good catch! I think I need a better editor. ;)

Expand full comment
author

Yes we are closer to World War Three than we have ever been since the Cuban Missile Crisis all thanks to Biden and his neocon Republican collaborators for pursuing a policy of national suicide in fighting a manufactured war against Russia in Ukraine.

Expand full comment
author

Yes this is all very interesting and confirms the thesis of my article. Thanks for sharing!

Expand full comment

If President Biden is re-elected in November will this increase the chances of war with Russia and China ?

Can a reelected Biden negotiate an Ukraine peace deal with Putin ?

Expand full comment
author

It would be very difficult but possible. I think it would require either a Russian breakthrough to thr Dnipro River during the expected Russian summer offensive, the Ukrainian army virtually running out of manpower or Russia dropping a nuke on Ukraine.

Expand full comment
May 30Liked by David T. Pyne

The way things are going we are heading to a crisis in Ukraine long before November

If the deranged WEst follow on their threats to allow Ukraine to attack mainland Russia then WW3 is inevitable , and we are surely going to lose

Expand full comment

John Mearshimer says often that the US is by far the most powerful country in the world

Do you agree with this ?

Expand full comment
author

No I don't. Russia and China are more powerful than the US militarily.

Expand full comment

If you got asshole politicians in America sending you hundreds of billions of dollars would you step down?

Expand full comment

Does Russia have enough nukes to target the USA and all of its NATO allies?

That’s a lot of potential targets especially as NATO and the US could do a first strike

Expand full comment
May 30Liked by David T. Pyne

I don't think they would even remotely need them all. Cyberattacks and EMPs would do enough to cripple the US, Canada and Europe without all the widespread destruction of full on nuclear war.

Expand full comment
author

Exactly. For the first time ever, I don't think its likely that either Russia or China plan to use strategic nuclear weapons at all. They may use tactical nukes but they will focus on massive cyberattacks and regional super-EMP weapons to collapse and destroy the US and its allies if we attack them.

Expand full comment
May 30·edited May 30

They are running out of patience with those gangsters in KIev ; it wouldn't surprise me if they take the gloves off and launch an apocalyptic attack on the centre of Kiev just to make an example of them . They deserve it for conspiring with the West to bring down Russia . Putin and lavrov have been using admirable restraint up till now . I just get the sense of tired inevitability .. a well earned Darwin Award for the West

Expand full comment
author

No the innocent people of Kyiv do not decide being nuked or destroyed over the sins of their dictator anymore than the people of Russia deserve to be killed by Ukrainians over Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

Expand full comment
author

Yes they have 8,000-9,000 total that we know of. Only 3,300 of those are strategic nuclear warheads capable of reaching the US, UK and France but that is sufficient in my estimation.

Expand full comment