China Preparing an "October Surprise" for Taiwan Including Blockade and Final Demand for Reunification to Avert War

President Xi Jinping plans military action by October just before the US presidential election to meet his deadline to complete reunification with Taiwan shortly after the CCP's 75th anniversary.

Chinese President Xi Jinping making the Communist fist salute during a presidential address several years ago.

May 23, 2024 Update: Communist China declared today that it views President Lai's inaugural speech as "a confession of independence." Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin warned “Taiwan independence forces will be left with their heads broken and blood flowing” for attempting to fight China’s undertaking of “achieving complete unification” adding, “The weapon aimed to kill Taiwan ‘independence’ is already in place." This is extremely alarming because China has always stated that a Taiwanese declaration of independence would be a trigger for a full PRC blockade and/or invasion. As I have been predicting for the past several months, a Chinese blockade of Taiwan likely to occur in October, in reaction to the inauguration of the most pro-independence President in Taiwan's history, is now undeterrable. How Biden responds will determine whether the US survives to see the new year.

Last week, JR Nyquist, a well-respected Russia and China expert with whom I serve on the Committee for the Present Danger-China, recently interviewed a Chinese blogger who manages the Lude Media YouTube channel. Nyquist interviewed Lude about intelligence he and his associates received from Chinese sources that President Xi Jinping may be planning an ‘October surprise’ to ensure Chinese reunification with Taiwan by November. According to Lude, the PRC initiated a special operation last month that they refer to Operation “Dang Gui” which translates to Operation “Should Return” in a clear reference to Taiwan’s return to Chinese control. He stated that this plan would include an internal subversion effort to make the Taiwanese people distrust their leaders and trust the CCP regime in Beijing instead.

He also stated that China would implement a Joint Air and Naval Blockade for which the PLA has been practicing since August 2022 that would commence mere weeks before this year’s US presidential election, cutting off Taiwan from all Western economic and military support in what would essentially be a fait accompli. Chinese leaders reportedly believe that this would put the PRC in a much stronger negotiating position to pressure the US to agree to immediate reunification with Taiwan without war in accordance with long-time CCP objectives. The plan may include North Korea becoming increasingly more bellicose and engaging in another nuclear test. Then Beijing could offer to help the US in restraining North Korea and offer to curb Russia’s offensive plans in Ukraine if the US agrees to immediate peaceful reunification with Taiwan.

Lude states that Chinese Communist Party leaders believe that war with the US is inevitable so they have done everything possible to prepare for war with the US over the past few decades as I reported in The National Interest back in August 2022. Most notably they began mobilizing their economy and military for war five months earlier than Russia did in its war with Ukraine in case Biden makes good on his pledges to defend Taiwan militarily as they expect he likely will do.

President Xi Jinping addressing Joe Biden as his “old friend,” a term which has special meeting to the CCP as a Western leader who has spent their entire career advancing CCP objectives, during a virtual meeting on November 15, 2021. I joked at the time that Biden needed to call Xi to get his marching orders so he would know what Xi wanted him to do.

He states that when Biden became president the CCP senior leadership saw Joe Biden as one of their controlled assets and captured elites but suggests that since coming to power they are no longer certain he is a reliable partner in terms of China’s objective of reunification with Taiwan by the end of the year given Biden’s repeated statements that the US is obligated to go to war with the PRC to defend Taiwan. Lude stated that Beijing has been encouraging Russia to start a major offensive in Ukraine to put more pressure on the US and NATO to intervene militarily in this two-year long conflict on the fringe of Eastern Europe so that it can take Taiwan without resistance from the US. He also states China is trying to escalate the proxy war between the US and Iran to get the US to focus more of its military resources in the Middle East. He concludes that Xi Jinping believes that if China takes military action against Taiwan while the US is bogged down fighting two other proxy wars in Eurasia, US leaders will be less inclined to want with China.

In addition, he stated that the PRC might even try to sink a US aircraft carrier in order to get the US to back down and effectively deter the US from getting fully involved militarily in a war with the PRC over Taiwan and get the US to agree to peaceful reunification with Taiwan. Finally, he said that China has various means they could use to cause chaos inside Taiwan and the US itself as the November presidential election approaches. China could employ disinformation to further sow political and racial divisions in the US, instigate violent racial unrest, sow massive doubt about the legitimacy of the election or even release another deadly biological weapon into the US as it did with COVID-19 four years ago in a bid to successfully throw the election to its Manchurian Candidate Joe Biden.

In view of this newly disclosed information, I have decided to repost the following article which I originally published on November 11, 2023. It has been updated to reflect the latest open-source intelligence I have received since then concerning China’s most likely strategy to forcibly reunify with Taiwan and, if necessary, fight and win a war with the US. China seems very focused on taking military action to retake control of Taiwan before the end of Biden’s first term, perhaps concerned that if Trump wins the November 2024 presidential election and replaces Beijing’s controlled asset, Joe Biden, in the White House their prospects for achieving reunification with Taiwan without war with the US might be lessened. In the event China does engage in a full-scale blockade of Taiwan, Biden should immediately seek to de-escalate the crisis by offering to mediate a peaceful reunification agreement between China and Taiwan to prevent the outbreak of an unnecessary world war between the US and the PRC that could very well end with the destruction of the US and its Pacific allies.

How a Chinese Attack on Taiwan Might Quickly Escalate to World War Three

PLA troops engaging in an amphibious assault drill on the day of the last Taiwanese presidential election

The People’s Republic of China has spent the past 74 years since the end of the Chinese Civil War preparing to invade and annex Taiwan, an island nation a little larger than the Republic of Moldova, with a goal of achieving reunification by 2025. Taiwan was a formal US treaty ally until 1979 when we abrogated our mutual security agreement with them as part of our “One China” policy, replacing it with the Taiwan Relations Act—a commitment to provide Taiwan with sufficient weapons to defend itself while adopting a policy of strategic ambiguity with regards to whether we would defend them from a Chinese military assault. Unlike Ukraine which has no strategic significance whatsoever to the US, occupying the furthest reaches of eastern Europe, Taiwan is located along the primary international trade routes through which over sixty percent of international commercial shipping passes and produces over sixty percent of the world's semiconductors, but fully ninety percent of the world's advanced semiconductors needed to manufacture cellphones, cars and, most importantly, advanced weapon systems. For this reason, unlike Ukraine, the US does have a national interest in Taiwan’s defense and continued self-rule but this interest is not sufficiently great to trump America's national interest in its own self-preservation.

Preparations for the long-planned Chinese invasion of Taiwan are far more advanced than most people realize. In October of last year, a retired US Navy Captain estimated China has mobilized a huge armada of Roll-On Roll-Off (RORO) dual-use civilian ferries and vehicle transports converting all of them to military use installing ramps that can offload amphibious vehicles off the Taiwanese coast. He estimates they now have a total displacement of 2.4 million tons, which constitutes a sixty percent increase from 2021, while the PLA Navy has increased the number of its amphibious transport ships to a total of 450,000 tons of displacement. It is possible the estimates for this year could be much higher still as the PRC continues to mobilize for war. Altogether, this represents the largest and most capable amphibious assault force in the world.

Over the past several years, we have heard neoconservatives call for the US to change its policy from strategic ambiguity to one of strategic clarity that the US would fight World War Three with China if it invaded Taiwan. Ominously, President Joe Biden has followed their advice pledging every time he has been asked that the US will defend Taiwan militarily and has never walked those statements back. While neoconservatives claim that such a war would be hotly contested, they claim that the US could win a war with the PRC if US leaders merely demonstrated the willpower to do so under the inexplicably naive assumption that the war would not escalate to the nuclear level under the mistaken belief that nuclear wars cannot be won and thus should never be fought. They ignore the fact that it is not willpower that wins wars but rather hard power, most importantly superiority in unconventional weapons, where the US lost its edge to Russia and China many years ago.

Fox News analyst General Jack Keane (USA-Retired), asked about Biden’s pledge that the US would defend Taiwan militarily from a Chinese attack, remarked that it was “very appropriate” for Biden to abandon America’s more than four decade policy of strategic ambiguity despite the increased risk of nuclear war with China over the island nation.

While every US military wargame over the past couple decades has shown the US would likely lose such a war whether it remains conventional or not or even if the US escalates to the nuclear level first, back in January the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) held a series of wargames attempting to rebut the long-time presumption of US military defeat in such a war, claiming that the US won most of the time though at heavy cost. What they didn’t state is that the US only won most of the wargames by rigging them to prohibit the use of the very massive cyber, super-Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP), theater nuclear and strategic nuclear weapons which the PRC would almost certainly employ to ensure its victory over the US.

Neoconservatives seem to be living in an alternate universe to believe that the nuclear genie can be put back in the bottle and we can engage in conventional missile strikes against Chinese nuclear bomber, missile and submarine bases in mainland China and they would not order a nuclear response. Others say that it would be better for the US to fight an unwinnable war with China over Taiwan even if it results in the destruction of the US allowing Americans can ‘die with honor’ rather than to “appease” China by doing nothing to defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression even if standing aside would ensure the survival of the US for half a century to come. However, given the overriding U.S. national security interest in averting a nuclear war with the PRC and ensuring its very survival, the risks of U.S. military intervention in terms of likely Chinese nuclear escalation likely outweigh any perceived national interest in attempting to defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression.

The following is a chilling but realistic scenario that speculates how a Chinese attack on Taiwan could quickly albeit inadvertently spiral into a full-scale nuclear World War Three. It serves as a warning that should inspire caution in US policymakers and incentivize them to pursue a more diplomatic course in response to a Chinese blockade and/or invasion of Taiwan likely to occur sometime next year. Please share it with your members of Congress who you think may be favorably disposed to supporting Biden’s repeated pledges that the US will defend Taiwan militarily.

How a Second Sino-American War over Taiwan Would Likely Unfold

China completes its economic and military mobilization for war which it began in April 2022 increasing the size of the People’s Liberation Army by over fifty percent from 2.2 million military servicemen to 3.5 million and putting its nuclear forces on full-combat readiness alert status.  Taiwan holds its presidential election on January 13, 2024. Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate and current Taiwan Vice President Lai Ching Te, widely believed to be the most pro-Taiwanese independence candidate ever elected, wins a landslide victory. Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) joins other Republican and Democrat leaders to congratulate him on his victory. The PRC warns of harsh consequences against any further move to Taiwanese independence stating that any foreign intervention in internal Chinese affairs will be met with maximum force.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has stated repeatedly that China will crush Taiwan if it makes any move towards independence and, in a secret speech to the Chinese Communist Party on July 1, 2021, vowed China would destroy any country that attempts to support the Taiwanese ‘separatists’ militarily.

On October 1, 2024, President Xi Jinping presides over a massive PLA military parade in Beijing celebrating the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China. A few days later, China sends a satellite signal to all large Chinese transformers installed in the Taiwanese electrical power grid causing them to shut off or feed erroneous signals resulting in its entire electrical power grid being shut down. Then, under the direction of the People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force (PLASSF), Chinese-backed, non-state hackers engage in denial-of-service (DoS) attacks to overload Taiwan’s internet networks and disable its satellites effectively cutting off Taiwan from the world. China cuts all of Taiwan’s Trans-Pacific cables preventing Taiwanese leaders from even communicating with US leaders using landline phones but does not cut its communications cables with the Chinese mainland so that Taiwanese leaders can still communicate with Chinese leaders.

These Chinese cyberattacks against Taiwan’s critical infrastructure cut off its communication systems and internet access to the outside world. Taiwanese military command, control and communications (C3) are paralyzed while GPS access is cut off effectively decapitating the Taiwanese government and armed forces, making it difficult for their military to coordinate its defenses or operate effectively above the company level and rendering it impossible to use precision strike munitions with any accuracy. Gas pumps are disabled causing Taiwanese military vehicles, aircraft, and warships to quickly run out of fuel along with its cars, trucks, and trains, shutting down Taiwan’s food distribution system. Taiwan’s running water and water purification systems go down along with its emergency medical, fire, and law enforcement services, resulting in a breakdown of law and order as its citizens fight to find food and water for their family members. Chinese triad criminal mafia organizations use roving gangs to loot, pillage and kill well-to-do Taiwanese citizens and take possession of their property. Taiwan’s economy crashes. People attempt to make a run on the banks to withdraw all their cash but all the banks are closed. Backup generators run out of fuel resulting in a loss of power in Taiwanese hospitals causing thousands of sick patients to die while the supply of life-saving pharmaceutical drugs begins to run dangerously low.

Map showing August 2022 PLA Navy Joint Air and Naval Blockade exercise zones along with possible invasion routes. Some experts believe that a full-scale air and amphibious invasion of Taiwan could succeed in capturing the Taiwanese capital of Taipei within as little as two to three weeks.

Chinese leaders feign shock and surprise at this ensuing humanitarian catastrophe, denying responsibility for the power outages and cyberattacks while moving to seize control of Taiwanese airspace and territorial waters offering to send 100,000 PLA troops to provide immediate “humanitarian assistance” to help restore power and restore law and order. Beijing further offers to provide Taiwan with every assistance to quickly restore the power in exchange for Taiwanese leaders signing a peaceful reunification agreement while Chinese agents of influence in Taiwan try to manipulate public opinion to support reunification to end the suffering of Taiwanese citizens. However, Taiwan’s new President, William Lai, rejects Chinese offers to send large numbers of PLA troops to help restore power and prevent the breakdown of law and order.  China responds to him by implementing a blockade of the island, which they refer to as “a quarantine,” cutting off Taiwan from all outside military and humanitarian support.

President Joe Biden huddles with top US national security officials inside the Situation Room and his senior national security advisers and US intelligence officials agree that given that China-based non-state hackers conducted the attack, Chinese leaders almost certainly authorized the cyberattacks on Taiwan. US military leaders are unable to reach our 300 troops in Taiwan training the Taiwanese military in counterinsurgency warfare tactics to prepare them to more effectively combat PLA occupation forces.

Biden is conflicted as to how to respond because China is denying responsibility for the attacks but decides to send three additional carrier strike groups to the South China Sea and Western Pacific to pressure the PRC to break their undeclared Joint Air and Naval blockade of the island nation. The US implements escalating trade and economic sanctions on China sparking harsh protests and severe economic sanctions against the US by the Chinese government. This move sets up the first nuclear superpower naval showdown since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 with the risk it could spiral out of control to the nuclear level risking the very existence of the United States of America. China has spent decades preparing for a potential clash with the United States over Taiwan, constructing the largest nuclear-capable ballistic missile force in the world and deploying much of it along its Taiwan Strait coastline. Accordingly, the main difference with this nuclear superpower standoff is that it is not the United States that enjoys overwhelming theater nuclear and naval superiority, but China.

Beijing announces all foreign flights into Taiwan must be suspended and that all ships entering Taiwanese waters will be subject to inspection by Chinese warships and coast guard vessels for potential contraband which they define as including humanitarian relief supplies including food and fuel. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s new government and military are largely paralyzed and unable to communicate electronically with each other to order a coordinated defensive military response to increased Chinese aggression. PLA Air Force jets massively increase their intrusions into Taiwanese airspace while Taiwanese Air Force fighters operate without their computer networked systems and are forced to ration fuel. Taiwanese surface to air missiles and anti-ship missiles struggle to re-orient to pre-GPS systems making them much less accurate.

Operating under increasing mental and emotional stress, a rogue Taiwanese Air Force commander orders a Taiwanese fighter squadron to fire at PLA fighters flying over Taiwan, shooting down a Chinese fighter jet. President Xi responds by ordering massive missile strikes destroying virtually all of Taiwan’s Air Force and Navy within a few hours including all Taiwanese surface to air missile and anti-ship missile installations. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of Chinese agents conduct sabotage operations sowing confusion behind enemy lines, assassinating Taiwanese political and military leaders and blowing up key military targets. In addition Xi, orders PLA troops to occupy outlying Taiwanese islands including Quemoy and Matsu meeting with little resistance from Taiwanese troops cut off from their higher-level commanders.   

In response to the escalation of the war, President Biden calls President Xi Jinping who demands that Biden “immediately cease all US military provocations” and “stop interfering in Chinese internal affairs on the side of Taiwanese separatists.” He calls for Biden to withdraw the hundreds of US troops deployed at three Special Forces bases at Kinmen, Pangshu and Taiwan’s main island and withdraw all of its naval forces from the South China Sea, threatening “severe consequences” if the US does not. Xi further demands the US join the PRC in pressuring Taiwanese leaders to agree to immediate reunification with the mainland as the price of ending China’s blockade of Taiwan, resuming Taiwanese advanced semiconductor exports to the US and avoiding the outbreak of all-out war which could escalate to the nuclear level.

However, under heavy pressure from neoconservative Republicans and following the advice of a few of his own hawkish Cabinet members, including Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Biden informs Xi that he will only agree to support reunification talks if China ends its air and naval blockade of Taiwan which Xi refuses to do without a firm public US commitment in support of immediate reunification. While many countries condemn this Chinese aggression, international support for the defense of Taiwan remains limited. The UK expresses solidarity with the US in trying to break the blockade of Taiwan while South Korea and the Philippines reiterate their intention to stay out of any direct war between the US and the PRC. Japan and Australia offer to allow US forces to operate from their countries but refuse to commit to join the US in defending Taiwan militarily.

Neoconservative Republican presidential candidates and Congressional Republican leaders denounce Biden as “an appeaser” for not doing more to counter Chinese aggression pressuring Biden to make good on his repeated pledges to defend Taiwan militarily beginning with the establishment of a US enforced no-fly zone over Taiwan. They encourage Biden to “call China’s bluff” by sending large quantities of arms, ammunition, food and fuel to Taiwan escorted by US Navy warships. Biden initially rejects such calls on the grounds “that would mean World War Three.”

A Chinese Type 055 cruiser, which China refers to as a ‘‘destroyer’ despite the fact that it is nearly thirty percent larger than US Navy Ticonderoga class cruisers.

Ultimately, Biden is persuaded by his advisors to send US Navy warships to “defend global democracy” in Taiwan and enforce “the liberal rules based international order” by attempting to break the PLA naval blockade, but US efforts to do so fail as Shenyang J-15 carrier-based jets fire warning shots at US warships including YJ-83K anti-ship cruise missiles at Carrier Strike Group Five led by the US aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, a couple of which are shot down with another missile narrowly missing one of its escort ships. A US F-18 E/F Super Hornet from the Reagan responds by shooting down one of the J-15 Flanker X2 aircraft that fired the missiles. China responds by launching a barrage of 50 YJ-21 hypersonic anti-ship ballistic missiles from the Dalian, a Type 055 cruiser in the Shandong carrier strike group, that overwhelms the Reagan’s carrier strike group’s missile defenses, four of which hit the USS Ronald Reagan and sink it. The PRC again demands the US agree to immediate Chinese reunification with Taiwan to avoid the outbreak of an all-out world war.

US leaders are shocked at China’s successful sinking of one of our 11 aircraft carriers. Neoconservative Republicans demand Biden reject Xi’s demand and “show strength” with a robust US military response to the unprecedented sinking of a US aircraft carrier for the first time since World War Two, ostensibly for the purpose of deterring further Chinese military escalation. They call on Biden to conduct a conventional missile strike on a Chinese dual-capable nuclear bomber, dual-capable nuclear missile, or nuclear submarine base in mainland China. Under increasing pressure from hawkish Republicans and his hawkish advisors, Biden decides to order what he deems to be “a proportional response” by ordering the USS Key West, a Los Angeles-class nuclear-powered attack submarine, to launch a Tomahawk cruise missile strike against the PLA Navy’s heavily defended Yulin Naval Base, which is headquarters of the South Sea Fleet and the home port of the PLA Navy aircraft carrier Shangdong whose aircraft attacked and sunk the USS Dewey. While most of the missiles are shot down by Chinese missile defenses, several missiles land only a few kilometers away from China’s massive underground submarine base protected by hundreds of feet of earth and stone, which houses all of China’s nuclear missile submarines sparking alarm in Beijing.

China responds to the US conventional missile attack on the Chinese port by conducting a massive cyber and counterspace attack against the US homeland that disables, destroys or takes control of all US satellites within two hours.  Much like Taiwan’s power grid, America’s power grid utilizes hundreds of large Chinese transformers with back-doors that enables the PRC to turn them off or provide false readings causing widespread power failures without the US being able to detect foreign interference. Following this massive Chinese cyberattack, the US suffers the same fate as Taiwan with the US collapsing in slow motion into a failed state with government unable to function, the military unable to fight effectively, businesses unable to operate, emergency services shut down and our citizens unable struggling to get access to the basic necessities required to sustain life resulting in a breakdown of law and order. Biden responds by declaring martial law for the first time since the Civil War, assuming emergency powers and indefinitely postponing the November 2024 presidential election as President Volodymyr Zelensky did in Ukraine, making himself America’s first dictator in all but name. China also engages in massive air and missiles strikes against US military bases in the western Pacific including all major US military bases in Japan, the Philippines, the northern Marianas and Guam severely degrading US military forces in the region and succeeding in sinking many more US warships. These attacks cause tens of thousands of US military casualties.

In response, Biden orders the US to retaliate with a massive cyberattack on China but the massive Chinese cyber first strike has massively degraded US cyberwarfare capabilities while China’s cyber defenses are much stronger than ours causing the US cyber counterattack on the PRC to be far less damaging. Meanwhile, the approximately 100,000 PLA Special Forces and Airborne troops who have infiltrated into the US over the past four years begin conducting sabotage operations in US, assassinating political and military leaders, and releasing a biological weapon into the US which like COVID-19 was developed in the Wuhan Institute biological weapons lab but is much deadlier, against which they have already been vaccinated, causing millions of Americans to perish.

In the wake of the US cyberattack on the PRC, President Xi then gives his vassal, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, the green light to invade South Korea. Kim engages in massive artillery and rocket strikes against US and South Korean forces all along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) killing thousands of US troops and wounding thousands more in the first two days of the war. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin, having been made aware of his close military ally’s plans to attack Taiwan months in advance takes advantage of China taking down US and British satellites by staging a comprehensive nationwide cyberattack on Ukraine and unleashing a massive Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine from the Kharkiv region with the objective of rolling up and surrounding all Ukrainian military forces in southeastern Ukraine east of the Dnipro River. Putin uses the 500,000 Russian reserve troops for the offensive which he had been holding back in reserve as a hedge in the event of an outbreak of a direct war between Russia and NATO. The offensive scores rapid successes against Ukrainian forces which are desperately short of manpower and cut off from communications with their headquarters due to the massive cyber and counterspace attacks.

Britain, France and Poland respond by sending a joint expeditionary force consisting of 100,000 troops to prevent Russia from taking control of Kyiv and central Ukraine while the US joins them in establishing a no-fly zone over western and central Ukraine. Russia, in turn, responds by launching a massive counterspace and cyberattack on NATO paralyzing its ability to defend against a Russian invasion of the Baltic states, which Russia successfully occupies within two weeks after Russian forces launch an offensive in southern Lithuania to take the Suwalki Gap to link up with Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave, capturing NATO expeditionary forces in the Baltics who attempt to flee in a Dunkirk style rescue operation. Putin then detonates a super EMP weapon over NATO causing their resistance to Russia’s invasion of Poland to collapse. Subsequent to Russia’s defeat of NATO, all of the leaders of the former Soviet republics agree to subordinate their foreign and defense policies to Russia in exchange for their continued independence, essentially relegating them to satellite status.

Meanwhile, nearly 100,000 PLA Special Forces and Airborne troops, having successfully crossed the US southern border during the previous five years have organized into battalions and begin seizing control of major US Western ports, most importantly Los Angeles, having already picked up most of their heavy weapons from diesel trucks carrying Chinese containers from their container ships. They begin conducting sabotage operations and attacking US military bases taking advantage of the chaos that has ensued from the Chinese cyberattacks that blinded the US military, cut off our communications and took down our critical infrastructure. Russian-supplied Club-K supersonic cruise missiles launched from containers, each of which carry four missiles, previously unloaded at major US ports, begin moving to the interior of the US following the outbreak of the crisis, via railcars and diesel trucks enabling China to launch nuclear missiles at us from within our own territory if ordered to do so.

Map showing a hypothetical Russian occupation of the Baltic states which some US think tanks have assessed the Russian army could overrun within as little as four days time.

At the same time, the Islamic Republic of Iran, a formal Russian and Chinese ally since it joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization last year, reveals it has secretly built dozens of long-range nuclear missiles hidden in underground bases and begins attacking and destroying US military bases in the Persian Gulf region and occupying most of Iraq with Iranian troops including Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iranian forces overwhelm and overrun the 2,500 US troops in Iraq and its 900 troops in Syria killing and capturing most of our military servicemen. In addition, Iran orders its proxy Hezbollah to hit use all its 130,000-150,000 missiles and rockets to rain unprecedented destruction upon Israel and turn the Israeli capital of Tel Aviv into a smoking ruin. The Hezbollah rocket strikes overwhelm Israeli missile defenses and strike Israeli government ministry buildings killing some Israeli senior political and military leaders causing Israel to respond by invading Lebanon to eradicate Hezbollah and by assassinating senior leaders of the IRGC. Iran responds by sending tens of thousands of troops to defend its allies Syria and Lebanon. The US and its allies now face the prospect of a direct war not merely with one nuclear power but with four.

Despite the massive Chinese cyberattack having seriously degraded America’s nuclear command, control and communications (NC3) network, Biden issues orders to launch a couple of Trident II SLBM’s armed with tactical nuclear warheads from our two Ohio nuclear missile submarines on patrol in the Pacific to destroy both PLA Navy carrier strike groups in retaliation to the destruction of all US military bases in the western Pacific. Chinese leaders misinterpret the launches of a couple of Trident II SLBM’s as a US strategic nuclear first strike against the PRC causing Beijing to respond by launching three DF-41 ICBMs from its 360 newly built missile silos in Western China.

Picture of a Club K container erector being transported by a diesel truck. The range of the 3M-14/3M-14T land attack variant is reportedly 1,500-2,500 kilometers so truck-fired Club K missiles could be fired from Florida and still be in range of Washington, DC. The US, by contrast, has no mobile long-ranged land-based nuclear missile systems and has no plans to develop any.

Confronted with news of an incoming Chinese nuclear first strike, Biden orders the commander of US Space Command, recently tasked with responsibility for national missile defense, to shoot down the incoming missiles. But General Stephen Whiting informs him that due to the fact that official US policy for decades has been not to defend the US against Russian and Chinese nuclear missile attack, he regrets to inform the President that has no ability to shoot them down causing Biden to slump in his chair dejectedly at the news. Nearly paralyzed with fear, incredulity and incomprehension, he decides to enforce Presidential Decision Directive (PDD)-60, which essentially states that the US will not launch its nuclear missiles until the first nuclear impacts have been confirmed on US soil. However, before he is able to launch a retaliatory strike, a Chinese super-EMP weapon orbiting in Low Earth Orbit descends over the eastern US and detonates generating an EMP wave of 200,000 volts per meter blanketing America’s Eastern Grid, causing a cascading power failure which takes down the entire US electrical power grid and severely degrading America’s Nuclear Command, Control and Communications (NC3) system. The Chinese super-EMP attack ends up killing 275 million Americans within a year. This attack is immediately followed by a Chinese decapitation strike on Washington DC from a Chinese nuclear weapon in orbit with essentially no warning.

Meanwhile, Chinese DF-41 ICBM nuclear re-entry vehicles successfully destroy US Strategic Command Headquarters at Offutt Air Force base near Omaha, Nebraska as well as all three of our nuclear bomber, both our submarine bases, sinking all ten of our nuclear missile submarines in port and US nuclear storage facilities destroying eighty percent of America’s nuclear arsenal including over half of our operationally deployed nuclear arsenal. Russian Poseidon UUVs destroy all four Ohio nuclear submarines at sea including the two in the Atlantic and the two in the Pacific at a 50-kilometer range, completing the destruction of two out of three legs of the US nuclear triad, an action that Putin considers as payback for years of US backed Ukrainian strikes against Russian strategic military targets inside Russian territory.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), who was away from the nation’s capital at the time of the Russian decapitation nuclear first strike, is sworn in as America’s 47th President after President Biden is killed in the nuclear decapitation strike and Vice President Kamala Harris perishes when Air Force Two being shot down by China’s super-EMP attack. However, President Johnson is unable to launch a nuclear retaliatory strike against the PRC due to the fact that all three nuclear ‘footballs’ have been destroyed. Accordingly, he reluctantly decides to do what he still can to preserve the lives of the Americans who have survived by notifying Chinese leaders of the US offer of unconditional surrender to dissuade them from launching any additional nuclear or super-EMP attacks on the US homeland, realizing the US is now defenseless against enemy invasion and occupation. Following, the US surrender, Taiwanese leaders agree to immediate and unconditional reunification with the PRC allowing hundreds of thousands of PLA troops to occupy Taiwan. Japan, the Philippines and Australia also signal their acceptance of Chinese domination in the Indo-Pacific region. Months later, after the US population has been massively reduced from mass starvation, starvation related diseases and widespread civil strife, two million Chinese troops land on the US Pacific Coast and occupy the Western United States while Russia annexes Alaska and joins China in invading Hawaii with neither country meeting any real organized resistance.

Conclusion

Many US leaders continue to operate under the delusion that the US is the strongest military power on Earth while it is debatable whether it has been since it lost its nuclear superiority over the Soviet Union half a century ago and thus wrongly presume the US would ultimately prevail in any full-scale war with the PRC. Former White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany misleadingly refers to the US as “the world’s hegemonic power”. But as well-regarded foreign policy realist theorist Dr. John Mearsheimer has stated, the US was never really a global hegemon as it is more of a seapower than a landpower and has never had a sufficiently large global military presence to dictate terms to Russia or China who are the strongest regional powers in their respective regions. Certainly, it is accurate to say the US remains the dominant financial power with, at least in theory, the largest sphere of influence. However, it is unfortunate to note that by almost any other measure the US is more of a declining power which has already been eclipsed in virtually every area of great power comparison by our principal nuclear superpower rival—the People’s Republic of China.

As a student of history, the comparison I think would be the most apt is that the US now finds itself in a position similar to the German Empire on the eve of the outbreak of World War One. Like Germany in 1914, the US is currently the second largest economic and industrial power in the world with the second largest navy and like Germany our military alliance is significantly overmatched by that of our enemies while our prospects for victory in a great power war are low. Acknowledging the Western alliance’s position of overall military inferiority relative to the Sino-Russian military alliance, particularly in terms of strategic nuclear weapons, theater nuclear weapons and super EMP weapons, would inspire more caution in terms of the willingness of US leaders to risk war with our nuclear-armed adversaries. There has never been a full-scale war between nuclear powers in history and the ramifications of such a war would be exceedingly dire.

Much like Germany in 1914, war with the strongest great power of our time, the PRC, which boasts the largest army, the largest navy, the largest coast guard and the largest nuclear capable ballistic force in the world by far, is by no means inevitable. That said, as long as America continues to pursue its failed grand strategy of liberal hegemony which seeks to expand America’s sphere of influence all along Russia’s and China’s borders resulting in conflicting spheres of influence with our nuclear superpower adversaries, it will remain the most likely outcome. Like German leaders in 1914, US leaders need only the strategic imagination and the political courage to make the difficult strategic compromises involving strategic restraint, with regards to both the war in Ukraine and the coming war over Taiwan, to avert catastrophe and ensure America’s national survival—compromises short of direct military great power conflict.

In the case of Germany, had the Kaiser rescinded his ‘blank check’ to Austria-Hungary to fight Serbia and informed Austria-Hungary would not support any Austro-Hungarian military action against Serbia beyond the British “Stop in Belgrade” compromise solution which he supported, World War One would have been entirely averted. Failing that, the Germans only had to refrain from invading Belgium to avert war with Great Britain and go on the offensive against Russia to ensure ultimate military victory as Britain and the US would have remained neutral. Instead, the execution of the Schlieffen Plan, which included a full-scale German invasion of Belgium, ensured British entry into the war on the side of France which made German victory in the war all but impossible.

In the case of America’s ongoing Cold War with Communist China, the only way the US can hope to win it is by averting a direct military conflict over Taiwan which would be an unwinnable war that would be catastrophic for the US and its treaty allies in the Pacific likely resulting in our destruction. My grand strategy to prevent Communist China from succeeding in becoming the world’s economic hegemon goes against the prevailing conventional wisdom of our time that the US must defend Taiwan militarily which has been championed by our failed and discredited leaders for the past few decades, but it outlines a clear and achievable strategy to ensure America’s survival. US leaders, in both parties, have refused to learn from the lessons of modern history and have brought us to the brink of an unnecessary nuclear war with not one but two allied nuclear superpower adversaries that could bring a swift end to America’s existence with minimal warning.

US leaders would be wise to realize that the nightmare scenario outlined above by 2025 is far more plausible than they would like to believe. Accordingly, they should take immediate action to negotiate an end to the conflict with China over Taiwan to forestall a potential nationwide Communist Chinese cyber first strike on the US homeland while drawing a US nuclear redline around US treaty allies in the Indo-Pacific region to prevent it from ever occurring.

© David T. Pyne 2024

David T. Pyne, Esq. is a former U.S. Army combat arms and Headquarters staff officer, who was in charge of armaments cooperation with the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the Americas from 2000-2003, with an M.A. in National Security Studies from Georgetown University. He currently serves as Executive Vice President of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and as a member of the Committee on the Present Danger-China. He recently served as Defense and Foreign Policy Advisor to a top-tier presidential candidate. He has also co-authored the best-selling new book, “Catastrophe Now--America’s Last Chance to Avoid an EMP Disaster” and his new book “A Nuclear Posture Review for Advanced Technology Weapons” will be published in early fall 2024. He serves as the Editor of “The Real War” newsletter at dpyne.substack.com and as a contributor to “The National Interest”. Here is a link to his interview archive. He may be reached at emptaskforce.ut@gmail.com.

Recent Media Interviews

January 24th—Interview with Brannon Howse on his Worldview Weekend Broadcast Network to discuss this article. Here is the link to the recording.

January 25th—Interview on Living Hope Esparanza to discuss the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and the coming war with China over Taiwan. Here is a link to my interview.

January 26th—Interview with Paul Jensen on KTALK AM 1640 from 7am-8am MDT to rebut Joel Skousen’s false claims about my positions on foreign policy issues and discuss the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza and the possibility they may escalate to World War Three. Here is the link.

January 31st—Interview with Brannon Howse on his Worldview Weekend Broadcast Network to discuss the increasing Chinese cyber threat, the chances of war with China over Taiwan later this year, the Iranian nuclear threat and how the US should respond to Iranian proxy attacks in the Middle East. Here is a link to the interview.

February 2nd—Interview with Jared Anderson and Holly Crowley-Rabanne who host the Tooele Happy Hour podcast to discuss what our citizens can do to help save America from an unnecessary world war with Russia and China as well as what they can do to help save their families in the event the power gets turned off for good at the start of a catastrophic war. Here is the link.

February 9th-Interview with REN TV to discuss Zelensky’s likely reasons for firing of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valery Zeluzhny and how it will likely affect the course of the war in Ukraine.

February 14th—Interview with Brannon Howse on his Worldview Weekend Broadcast Network radio and TV shows to discuss the threat of a Iranian nuclear/super EMP missile launch from a cargo ship as well as the request by House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner to declassify a Russian plan to put a nuclear (likely super-EMP) weapon in orbit to use to destroy US satellites on the first day of any war with them. Here is the link to the TV interview.

February 20th—Interview on RT’s Crosstalk TV program hosted by Peter Lavelle to discuss the true origins of the war in Ukraine, who is winning the war, how it is likely to end and what security arrangement can be made between Russia and NATO to prevent it from re-occurring. Here is the recording.

February 20th—Interview with Jon Twitchell on his Talk with Jon show to discuss Tucker Carlson’s interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the state of the war in Ukraine, Russia’s new super EMP satellites which can destroy the US and my peace plan to end the Gaza War. Here is a link to the interview.

February 21st—Interview with Brannon Howse on his Worldview Weekend Hour show on Patriot TV to discuss the news that Biden is trying to stop the Russian super-EMP satellite from being tested as well as the story that 75% of components in a North Korean KM-23 SRBM were found to be made in America. Here is the link to the interview.

February 22nd—Interview with Brannon Howse on his Worldview Radio network broadcast on 67 affiliates to discuss the effects of EMP on cellphone networks and US communication systems. Here is the link.

February 27th—Interview with Jon Twitchell on his Talk with Jon show to discuss the latest developments with regards to Russia, the war in Ukraine, the war in Gaza and the increasing threat of war with China. Here is a link to the interview.

February 27th—Interview with Nima Alkhorshid on his Dialogue Works podcast to discuss the 2nd anniversary of the war in Ukraine as well as my newly published peace plan to end the war on Gaza on fair and reasonable terms while also ending America’s proxy war with Iran.

February 27th—Interview with Brannon Howse on his Worldview Weekend Hour show on Patriot TV to discuss the NATO threat that the UK and France are considering sending an Expeditionary Force into central Ukraine to fight Russia directly and start World War Three and Russia’s threat to nuke the US and NATO if they do. Here is a link to the interview.

Upcoming Media Interviews

March 5th—Interview on the COL Rob Maness (USA Ret) on the Rob Maness Show to discuss the Russian super-EMP satellite threat, the potential vulnerabilities of America’s Nuclear Command, Control and Communications (NC3) system and what we can do to reduce America’s vulnerability to a nuclear/EMP first strike.

April 18th—I will be presenting an extensive briefing at the Firm Foundation Expo at the Mountain America Expo Center at 9575 South State Street in Sandy, Utah at 5pm to discuss the increasing threat of World War Three with Russia, China, North Korea and Iran and what we need to do to avert it.