Return of the Neocons—Trump Appoints Staunch Supporters of America's Forever Wars to Serve in His Cabinet

Trump foreign policy and national security officials may join with fellow neocon leaders of both Houses of Congress to try to sabotage his attempts to make peace with Russia and China.

President-Elect Donald Trump and Senator Marco Rubio at a rally in Florida back in July. Rubio was reportedly Trump’s second choice to serve as his running mate after Vice President-Elect JD Vance.

Going into the November 5^th election, I predicted if the Democrats didn't cheat, President-Elect Donald J. Trump would win 31 states with 312 votes and win the popular vote by 3% and the GOP would hold the House and pick up the Senate and that is exactly what happened. Trump’s election as the 47^th President of the United States has given hope to tens of millions of Americans that his new administration will act to end Biden’s proxy wars with Russia and Iran and will steer clear of an all-out war with the PRC when they blockade China likely sometime early next year perhaps in January around Inauguration Day. Millions of non-Americans abroad likely felt the same sense of relief from Trump’s landslide victory that proved democracy works and the American people still have a choice on who they want to serve as their President.

I have never been more excited about a Republican presidential ticket in my life. Trump now has a mandate from 75 million Americans to fulfill his pledge to end Biden’s proxy war in Ukraine in the first several days of his presidency. He also has a mandate to make peace with China and avoid the outbreak of World War Three over Taiwan and to end our proxy war with Iran in the Middle East while restoring prosperity and freedom to Americans here at home in the interests of healing and uniting our great country.  President-Elect Trump recently stated “I am not going to start wars, I am going to stop wars.” That statement is the very definition of a Reaganite policy of policy of peace through strength that enabled us to win the Cold War against the Soviet Union. A similar policy may enable the US to win our Cold War against the People’s Republic of China.  

In addition to pledging to end America’s foreign wars, Trump won by pledging to put America First, implement broad revenue-based tariffs of ten to twenty percent on foreign goods—essentially a variation of former House Speaker Paul Ryan’s Border Adjustment Tax which he proposed six years ago, deporting 25 million illegal immigrants and driving down food, fuel and housing prices to make life more affordable for working class and middle-class American citizens. Trump was rewarded with record-breaking support from blacks, Latinos and young adults under thirty years of age.

President-Elect Trump has already begun announcing many of his senior Cabinet member picks, some of them more controversial than others. He announced he has chosen neocon Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), a US Army Reserve Colonel, to serve as his National Security Advisor. Waltz served as a Green Beret and served as a counterterrorism adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney (who notably endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for President) and later opposed withdrawing large numbers of troops from Afghanistan without strict conditions. LTC Darin Gaub (USA Ret.) wrote that “Waltz is well known as a hawkish figure and NEOCON who is more likely to continue to advocate for and push for forever wars than for ending them. If appointed, it remains to be seen how his push for continued conflict will mesh with Trump's goal of ending it.” However, on the bright side, Waltz is well-informed on the existential threat of super EMP attacked having been briefed by members of the Task Force on National Security which I help lead.

Trump also announced he will nominate Sen. Marco Rubio to serve as his Secretary of State. RFK Jr. reportedly expressed strong opposition to Trump appointing Rubio as Secretary of State while Elon Musk, Charlie Kirk and Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) cautioned fellow MAGA supporters from believing Trump had chosen Rubio until Trump had officially confirmed the pick.  According to Politico, this nomination has provoked major backlash from Trump’s MAGA supporters.  Politico reported: “Conservative comedian Dave Smith said Tuesday that Rubio is “a disaster.” “Might as well give Liz Cheney the State Department,” Smith wrote. “Awful sign.” “Rubio? Was Hillary unavailable?” wrote another far-right influencer. Other MAGA acolytes recirculated old Trump Twitter posts about Rubio, including during the 2016 primary, when Trump called him a “perfect little puppet” for the late donor Sheldon Adelson, as well as a “total lightweight” and “overrated politician.”

Congressman Mike Waltz (R-FL), who has been a strong supporter of all of America’s forever wars

Glenn Greenwald, a Trump aligned anti-war activist criticized the picks, posting on X: “Trump's last 3 appointees - Elise Stefanik, Mike Waltz (sic), and Rubio - are war hawks fully aligned with the worst prongs of bipartisan DC consensus." It seems clear they are not aligned with Trump’s stated America First foreign policy priorities. Unfortunately, Trump’s ‘superhawk’ neocon warmonger Republican establishment picks for Secretary of State with Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and National Security Advisor with Rep. Michael Waltz (R-FL), could serve to prolong the war in Ukraine indefinitely as they will likely push Trump to demand harsher peace terms for Russia that Putin will never accept.

Before the 2024 presidential election when I was asked during dozens of interviews how I thought Trump’s election would change US foreign policy towards Russia and China, I expressed confidence that Trump would steer clear of wars with both nuclear superpowers so long as Trump didn’t make the same mistake he made during his first term by appointing neocon warmongers and former Iraq war cheerleaders who worked to sabotage all his attempts to end America’s foreign wars in Iraq, Syria and especially Afghanistan. I had hoped that Trump would appoint America First conservatives like Vivek Ramaswamy to his Cabinet. However, it seems he is making the same mistakes in doing so he made during his previous term failing to appoint any America First conservatives/foreign policy restrainers to his incoming administration.

A week ago, I wrote: “I am concerned about the number of neocon imperialist warmongers that are being considered for Trump cabinet positions. Also, he is reportedly being advised by the neocon "America First Policy Institute" think tank on who to pick. We may see a lot of Deep Staters in his second term cabinet. The good news is that if he makes VP Elect JD Vance, his main national security policy advisor, he will make the right decision every time.”

Trump’s neocon Cabinet picks have left his supporters concerned given that there are multiple Trump MAGA supporters on Trump’s transition team. One would think would be strongly advising Trump against some of his counterproductive Cabinet choices who don’t align with his foreign policy views and who could work to sabotage Trump’s America First foreign and national security agenda from within the senior ranks of the administration as well as from Congress with both Houses set to be led by neoconservatives. If Trump’s America First agenda were to be sabotaged by his Deep State Cabinet members and Deep State US Senate Majority Leader, Democrats could take back both houses of Congress in 2026 and then Trump may end up having a failed presidency.

Earlier this year, a host of retired generals and neocons acolytes reportedly briefed Trump at Mar-a-Lago and persuaded Trump to drop his opposition to the Biden-Johnson $61 billion monstrosity. Now, this same neocon cabal that misled Trump to abandon his opposition to further Ukraine aid may be helping to hand-pick his Cabinet officials who will be in charge of determining US foreign policy and national security policy. Suspending aid to Ukraine is absolutely necessary to pressure Zelensky to agree to negotiate an end to the war with Russia so Johnson’s decision to support the Biden Ukraine foreign aid boondoggle has only served to prolong the war several months longer than necessary leading to the deaths of tens of thousands more Ukrainian soldiers. The question is will the neocon cabinet officials Trump is surrounding himself with succeed in convincing him to drop his opposition to forever wars being fought in opposition to US national security interests?

Trump’s choices for Cabinet seem to prioritize loyalty but some of them also seem calibrated to ensure easy bipartisan US Senate confirmation with multiple Democrats voting to support them given Democrats support a hawkish foreign policy particularly with regards to Russia showing he is not overly concerned with picking Cabinet officials who are ideologically aligned with his laudable America First foreign policy agenda. Far-left Democrat members of Congress are also beginning to express support for Trump’s neocon Cabinet picks with whom they align ideologically in terms of supporting America’s failed policy of liberal hegemony. The Hill reports that Democratic Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman said he would vote to confirm his colleague Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) as secretary of State if selected by President-elect Trump. 

Yesterday, Senator Fetterman (D-PA) wrote on X: “Unsurprisingly, the other team’s pick will have political differences than my own. That being said, my colleague @SenMarcoRubio is a strong choice and I look forward to voting for his confirmation.”

Former National Security Advisor John Bolton, one of the most prominent Never Trumpers, may have the last laugh if President Trump’s neocon cabinet picks convince him to fight a new war against Russia or China.

During an interview yesterday, former National Security Advisor and longtime Never Trumper John Bolton could hardly contain his glee at Trump’s choice of fellow neocon Rep. Waltz to serve as his National Security advisor and presumably is thrilled by his choices of his fellow neocons Sen. Rubio as Secretary of State and Rep. Stefanik as Ambassador to the United Nations. Bolton’s strong support for Walz’ appointment confirmed my fears that Waltz may be batting for the other team--America Last neocon warmongers who oppose Trump's efforts to end our forever wars.

Trump has also chosen former Governor Mike Huckabee, a lifelong neocon, to serve as Ambassador to Israel, in what is the latest sign that Trump intends to make the US relationship with Israel in the words of a Chinese proverb, “as close as lips and teeth.” His neocon cabinet picks are also likely to support all Israeli military actions whether they are justified or excusable or not. For example, Rubio responded to a recent media question about Israel’s killing of 30,000 Gazan women and children by blaming Hamas. Will Trump continue his support for Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites that could provoke Iran to respond with a nuclear missile attack on the State of Israel and/or start World War Three between the US, Russia and China?

After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Waltz suggested the US and NATO might have to fight Russia directly in Ukraine despite the fact that the US has no discernible national security interest in who wins this border dispute being fought on the furthest fringes of Eastern Europe. As recently as a year ago, Walz was critical of the Biden administration for not giving Ukraine enough weapons to defeat Russia and even criticized the administration for not authorizing missile strikes deep inside Russia, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated would constitute a brazen act of war by the US and NATO.  Only recently has he called for our European allies to take over the burden of supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia. Elbridge Colby would have been a far better choice for National Security Advisor. Hopefully, Trump will consider him for another top post such as Deputy Secretary of State or even Special Envoy to negotiate an end to Biden’s proxy war with Russia in Ukraine. Walz hasn’t supported ending the war with Russia, just outsourcing it to other countries. Rubio has made similar statements as Walz has though he has recently stated the war in Ukraine must end in a negotiated settlement.

Politico reported yesterday that Rubio and Waltz have questioned or voted against past U.S. aid packages for Ukraine — not for lack of support for Ukraine in its fight to defeat Russia but because the U.S. wasn’t spending a requisite amount on securing the U.S. southern border by comparison. They report that Ukrainian leaders are pleased and re-assured by Trump’s cabinet picks particularly Rubio and Walz. Ukrainian lawmakers and analysts are hopeful that these appointments signal the incoming Trump administration is sympathetic to Ukraine, but they are likely mistaken.

“Kyiv is quite calm and quite comfortable with the national security officials announced so far,” said Daneil Vajdich, a Republican foreign policy expert and president of Yorktown Solutions, which advises Ukrainian state entities and engages with officials in Kyiv. “Those pushing a narrative of anxiety in Kyiv are doing this for their own purposes and are doing Ukraine a disservice in my view.”

Politico reports that other figures in the Trump world are angry that Trump would tap Rubio for secretary of state over other MAGA acolytes like former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell, who may be more skeptical of sending further aid to Ukraine.

Responsible Statecraft reports that Waltz opposed Trump’s efforts to get the US military out of or 20-year war in Afghanistan and has been open to bombing Iran, which likely already possesses nuclear weapons.

Rep. Adam Kinzinger, another Never Trumper who endorsed outgoing Vice President Kamala Harris for President and spoke at the Democrat National Convention, also praised Trump’s pick of Rubio for Secretary of State. Never Trumpers former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) and Bill Kristol are likely very pleased with Trump’s Cabinet picks as well as they share their neo-imperialist penchant for fighting wars without end.

Trump picked House Republican Conference Chair Elaine Stefanik to serve as his UN Ambassador in yet another victory for neocon hardliners. She previously worked at neocon think tanks including one co-founded by longtime Never Trumpers and neo-imperialist neocons Bill Kristol and Bob Kagan.

Trump Picks Some Excellent America First Conservative Cabinet Officials

Trump has had some good administration picks thus far including immigration hard-liners Stephen Miller as Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy, former ICE Director Thomas Homan as Border Czar and John Ratcliffe as Director of the CIA. Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD) should also do a decent job as Secretary of Homeland Security. I am unsure of her position on Trump’s campaign pledge to deport 25 million illegal immigrants reducing America’s population from 336 million to 311 million, but she is definitely better than Chad Wolf, a McConnell acolyte who many predicted he would tap for the job who was weak on immigration while serving as Acting Secretary. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4985664-donald-trump-kristi-noem-homeland-security/

Rep. Matt Gaetz, who I met earlier this year, will be an excellent choice to fire all of the Obama and Biden officials in the Department of Justice and FBI who have weaponized law enforcement agencies against President-Elect Trump and his supporters.

In the most exciting and least expected pick of all, he nominated Rep. Matt Gaetz to serve as his Attorney General. I have been calling for Trump to appoint Gaetz or Rep. Jim Jordan to serve as his Attorney General for well over a year now to clean house of all the senior Obama and Biden holdovers in the Department of Justice and FBI. During his first term, Trump appointed Deep State swamp creatures to lead the FBI and CIA and to serve as DNI and Deputy AG. Now he has made it clear he is reversing that mistake and getting ready to purge any remaining Deep State saboteurs like Wray he appointed previously. Gaetz is on record calling for the abolition and breaking up of the FBI which I think is an idea that has merit given its horrible record of being weaponized against the Democrats political opponents including 85 year old grandma's at the Capitol and pro-life protesters praying near abortion clinics

Trump's inner circle has described the attorney general, the country's top law enforcement official, as the most important member of the administration after the president, key to his plans to carry out mass deportations, pardon Jan. 6 rioters and root out corruption from Obama and Biden appointees that weaponized the government to persecute Trump and other Biden administration opponents over the past four years. However, I am concerned that Gaetz may have a tough time getting confirmed by the US Senate given his ill-considered decision to oust popular House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who was friends with a lot of Republican Senators, that alienated a lot of his fellow Republicans in Congress. That gambit resulted in an even more liberal House Speaker Mike Johnson taking his place who received over 160 House Democrat votes to save his Speakership when they voted to table Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Motion to Vacate earlier this year. Gaetz likely does not have the votes necessary to be confirmed but there are still weeks before confirmation hearings begin.

Gaetz’s first priority will be to preside over the firing of corrupt Biden-supporting FBI Director Chris Wray who led the obstruction of justice during the Biden impeachment hearings in refusing to provide the requested evidence of Biden’s international bribery scandals and whistleblower complaints. Wray also presided over the raid of the President-Elect’s home in Mar-a-Lago and the investigation of J6 protesters and pro-life activists among other disgraceful actions. Trump is likely to pick someone solid to replace him. Other Trump picks revealed on November 12^th include Fox Nation Host Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense and John Ratcliffe as CIA Director. While a lifelong neocon, I think Ratcliffe is probably a good choice, for the role of CIA Director. Hopefully, he will lead the agency to stop underestimating the threat posed by Communist China and root out all the Deep State senior officials installed by former CIA Directors.

Hegseth, who served as a Major in the US Army National Guard and is a decorated combat veteran who served tours in both Iraq and Afghanistan, beat out former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) who was chosen to serve as Trump’s Director of National Intelligence, mere weeks after she became a member of the Republican Party. I believe that Tulsi is an outstanding choice to serve in that position as an America First nationalist who has spoken passionately about her opposition to America stumbling into a World War Three with Russia and China making her a perfect fit to work in this capacity with President-Elect Trump given he shares the exact same overriding priority.

He is much less of a known quantity than Trump’s other Cabinet choices and while I was very familiar with him, I had to do some research to figure out his positions on today’s most pressing national security issues. He previously served as CEO of Concerned Veterans for America which is an organization funded by the Koch Brothers to oppose America’s forever wars in the Middle East. There is reason to believe he is actually an America First conservative rather than a neoconservative like virtually all the rest of Trump’s Cabinet foreign policy and national security picks to date.

Fox News host Pete Hegseth, an excellent choice for Secretary of Defense who Trump selected to fire all of America’s woke liberal generals and admirals and rebuild the US military to fight and win great power wars.

Democrats lined up today to oppose Hagseth confirming my thinking that he was a great choice. Fox News reported:

“As a Fox News host and conservative commentator, Hegseth has outlined a number of policy positions that would roll back decades of efforts to promote diversity and expand opportunities for women and LGBTQ service members.

He has specifically called for the firing of Joint Chiefs Chair CQ Brown, along with any other generals involved in diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) efforts, and has said women should not serve in combat roles.

“Pete is tough, smart and a true believer in America First,” Trump said in a statement. “With Pete at the helm, America’s enemies are on notice Jerry Moran Our Military will be Great Again, and America will Never Back Down.”

If installed at the Pentagon, Hegseth would be tasked with carrying out Trump’s campaign against “wokeness” in the military, which will likely include banning transgender troops, slashing DEI initiatives and placing new restrictions on compensation for traveling to receive abortions.” 

Trump's decision to appoint Waltz and Rubio in particular have been concerning but Hagseth stands out as an outstanding choice for Secretary of Defense, likely the best in my lifetime, who would likely side with Trump, Vance and Gabbard in countering the neocons within the Trump Cabinet.  

In a recent wide-ranging interview, Hagseth stated, “I’ve been a recovering neocon for six years now. The foolishness with which we ricocheted around the world intervening thinking it was in our best interests in which we overturned the table and created something worse in virtually every single scenario. The trust there that our political leaders or our generals would have our best interest in mind is totally broken...and the last thing I want is my son deploying to the Donbass to defend eastern Ukraine.”

He added China has won every Pentagon wargame we have fought with them and that they are building an army specifically to defeat us in furtherance of their bid for global domination. Hagseth also stated he understands that China could take down our grid in a matter of minutes if we went to war with China over Taiwan saying he knows China “already has us by the balls economically…and with our (electrical power) grid, culturally with elite capture going on around the globe, microchips and everything.” The fact that he knows that China could take us down likely would make him advise against war with China over Taiwan and would also cause him to support the efforts of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security which I help lead, to get US policymakers to harden America’s electrical power grid against the existential threat of super-EMP and cyber attack that could kill tens of millions of Americans.

Politico reported that Hagseth would be a warrior for change as Secretary of Defense:

Trump’s pick to be Pentagon chief has explicitly confirmed that he could target military leaders, including Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. C.Q. Brown, in an effort to remove diversity and inclusion programs at the agency. “First of all, you’ve got to fire the chairman of the Joint Chiefs,” Hegseth said when prompted by podcast host Shawn Ryan about reforming the military. “Any general that was involved, any general, admiral, whatever, that was involved in any of the DEI/woke shit has got to go.”

Hegseth in a Fox appearance this year called for a fundamental shift in U.S. military priorities, warning that the current focus on diversity and inclusivity is weakening America’s defenses. “These ideologies, political correctness, made their way into the ranks — and generals and leaders didn’t stand up and say, No, we should only be focused on readiness and meritocracy and lethality,” Hegseth said.

Politico also reported that Rep. Adam Kinzinger strongly opposes Hagseth for Secretary of Defense so that is yet another sign that he is exactly the kind of Secretary of Defense we need to increase military readiness and rebuild the US military.

As noted above, Hegseth’s first order of business will be to purge woke generals and admirals from the armed forces. A draft Trump Executive Order would establish a “warrior board” of retired senior military personnel with the power to review three-and four-star flag officers and to recommend any deemed unfit for leadership be separated from the US military. Trump also plans to liberate US military from DEI, ban transgenders, and eliminate woke climate change and democracy promotion to improve the ability of the US military to fight and win wars. I had been calling on Trump to fire every woke three or four star general and admiral appointed by President Joe Biden to restore the loyalty of the US military and to restore the focus of US military leaders on winning wars at a time that the US military is in a state of tremendous weakness relative to our nuclear superpower enemies-Russia and China as Sen. Tommy Tuberville has stated.  Accordingly, I would strongly support Trump signing such an order. The board should also recommend using administrative punishment to demote former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley to Major General for his role in being the highest-ranking traitor in US military history and plotting a military coup against a democratically elected President and telling our Communist Chinese enemy he would warn them in advance if the US was planning to go to war with them.

Trump also reportedly plans to slash wasteful Defense spending and cut the number of flag officers. Trump should start by closing nearly half of our overseas military bases and pulling US troops out of Europe and the Middle East. That could save over $100 billion a year. We could then spend on doubling the size of our strategic nuclear arsenal, hardening the grid against EMP attack and building national missile defense system with 5000 ABM interceptors.

Politico reports that former Trump national security official Michael Anton is being considered for the position of Deputy National Security Advisor. I believe Michael Anton would be an outstanding choice as he has spoken eloquently of his desire to end the Liberal International Order/US liberal empire and end Biden's proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. He is a foreign policy realist opposed to neocon attempts to fight unnecessary wars with Russia and China and thus aligns closely with President-Elect Trump's overriding national security imperative of avoiding World War Three.

Neocons Sweep US House and Senate Leadership Races

On Election Night, Republicans won control of the US Senate. On November 7^th, I wrote “Looks like our House GOP majority range is 219-222 right now based on a review of the individual races which equates to anywhere from a 1 seat loss to a 2 seat gain. So not great but a lot better than minority status.” Earlier today, news agencies reported that Republicans had won control of the US House of Representatives as well with at least 219 House seats completing the Republican trifecta in winning control of all three branches of government including both Houses of Congress.

Senator John Thune (R-SD), who has served as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s loyal lieutenant over the past six years, prior to his election as Senate Majority Leader earlier today.

During Senate Republican leadership elections today, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell joined every single Never Trumper Republican Senator including Sen. Susan Collins (R-MN) and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) in electing McConnell loyalist and fellow Never Trumper/neoconservative Senate Minority Whip John Thune as the new Senate Majority Leader.  With Thune’s leadership victory, McConnell may be in a position to exact a measure of retribution against Trump for opposing him and helping to pressure him not to run for another term in the Senate leadership as Thune will likely follow McConnell’s record of torpedoing much though not all of Trump’s America First conservative agenda passed by the GOP led US House of Representatives. Outgoing Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer praised the election of Thune as incoming Senate Majority Leader saying that they had a long history of working together to pass bipartisan legislation.  Sen. John Barasso (R-WY), who voted against Biden’s Ukraine aid bill earlier this year and is more aligned with President-Elect Trump on foreign policy, was elected as Senate Majority Whip while Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), another neocon superhawk, was elected as Chairman of Republican Conference.

During a recent interview with Blaze TV owner Glenn Beck a few days ago, Turning Point CEO Charlie Kirk revealed that Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) contacted him regarding his brilliant idea to persuade Vice President-Elect Vance to serve as full-time President of the Senate if Never Trumper Sen. John Thune (R-SD) was elected Senate Majority Leader, as in fact he was earlier today. He said Senate rules clearly state that the senior Senate leader in attendance shall preside and the most senior Senate leader is the President of the Senate which outranks Senate Majority Leader. In this way, Vance could set the agenda, prevent Thune from passing Trump’s America First agenda and even make committee assignments including Committee chairs and subcommittee chairs. However, due to the fact that its something that has never been done before and would likely be strongly opposed by Senate Democrats, it probably won’t end up happening.

House Republican leadership elections also took place earlier today. Nancy Pelosi backed America Last House neoconservative Speaker Mike Johnson overcame conservative objections to be re-elected Speaker-designate thanks to President-Elect Trump’s decision to endorse him for re-election this morning in a meeting with House Republicans this morning.  However, Johnson lacks the votes to be elected House Speaker on January 3^rd meaning that it could take 15 ballots for him to be elected assuming he doesn’t drop out of the race. Given President-Elect Trump’s support for his speakership, its likely Trump would bring heavy pressure on his America First conservative allies in the House to approve the Uniparty/neocon House speaker for another term to prevent Trump’s election certification from being delayed past January 6^th.

It goes without saying that with Never Trumper John Thune leading the Senate and with Democrat backed RINO Speaker Johnson leading the House if he manages to get re-elected GOP congressional majorities are not what they used to be. All of the other top members of the House Republican leadership team, with the exception of Elise Stafanik who will serve as Ambassador to the UN, are unchallenged for re-election. House Republican Conference Secretary Rep. Lisa McClain of Michigan was elected as the new House Republican Conference Chair and Rep. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma, who this cycle led the 177-member Republican Study Committee, was elected House Republican Policy Chair. All of the current House Republican leadership members are establishment Republicans with the exception of Hern who is more solidly conservative.

House Republican leaders are understandably concerned that Trump’s picks of three sitting House members may reduce their tiny majority until the vacancies can be filled. Currently, the GOP has won 219 House seats. However, if Democrats were to win the six remaining races that have yet to be called it would give them 216 House seats meaning that the GOP House majority would be reduced to a razor thin 216-216 seats until the House special elections in NY and FL have taken place.

The Hill reports that one Republican member of Congress remarked: “But President Trump fully understands and appreciates the math here, and it’s just a numbers game,” he added. “We believe we’re going to have a larger majority than we had last time — it’s too early to handicap it, but we’re optimistic about that. But every single vote will count, because if someone gets ill or has a car accident or a late flight on their plane, then it affects the votes on the floor. So I think he and the administration are well in-tune to that.”

However, its more likely that the GOP will end up with 221 or even 222 House seats once all the House election results have been finalized meaning that the GOP majority will be whittled down to 219 or 220 House seats until the special elections have been held. New York Governor Kathy Hochul must schedule a special election within 90 days of Stefanik vacating the seat which would likely not occur until just before Trump’s inauguration in January. Gov. DeSantis could be expected to hold a special election to fill the House seats vacated by Waltz and Gaetz, assuming he is confirmed by the US Senate, sooner than that once he has recruited solid conservatives to run for the seats.

DeWine and DeSantis to Fill US Senate Vacancies

In other news, Senator JD Vance’s election as Vice President has opened a US Senate vacancy which is down to two finalists one of whom was reported to be former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. However, Trump has picked Vivek Ramaswamy as Co-Chair, along with Elon Musk, of a new Department of Government Efficiency to drastically cut the size of the federal government. During his presidential campaign that I worked on his Defense and Foreign Policy Advisor, he called for reducing the federal workforce by seventy-five percent from 2,000,000 to 500,000 to save tens of billions of dollars a year so he will be excellent in that position. Accordingly, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine will likely appoint a centrist establishment Republican like Ohio Republican Party Chair Jane Timken to fill the vacancy.

President-Elect Trump has given a gift to his former rival Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) who now gets to pick a new US Senator and schedule two Special Elections for House seats occupied by Trump Cabinet picks. He will likely pick a US Senator who will vacate the seat for him so he can run in 2026.

In addition, Senator Marco Rubio’s reported selection as Secretary of State opens up a Senate vacancy for Gov. Ron DeSantis to choose. The two best options for DeSantis to pick to replace him would be House Freedom Caucus Members Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) or Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL). Yet another possibility is that DeSantis could pick someone who would agree to vacate the seat to allow him to run for it when his term as Governor expires in 2026. That is certainly a possibility unless DeSantis thinks he can beat Vice President-Elect JD Vance for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028 as DeSantis was previously the frontrunner but now Vance likely will be. If not, he will likely opt to run for Senate in 2026.

The New York Post reports, “A candidate for that particular role: chief of staff James Uthmeier, who helped helm the campaigns to keep amendments removing abortion restrictions and legalizing recreational weed from passing. There’s also the chance that a Florida cabinet member could get the pick, and two of them are term-limited in 2026: Attorney General Ashley Moody and chief financial officer Jimmy Patronis. Of the two, Moody seems the more likely pick. Since Joe Biden’s 2020 election, she’s worked hand in glove with the governor in legal challenges to federal overreach on issues ranging from pandemic mitigation to border capitulation. There also are other names worth mentioning. The ultimate olive branch to the president-elect would be a member of the Trump family; a few live in Florida, and Republican National Committee co-chair Lara Trump is being touted in some MAGA convos. And former Florida House Speaker Jose Oliva would be an interesting successor to Rubio, though it remains to be seen if he’d be as successful statewide as the outgoing senator.” 

DeSantis has stated he is not interested in appointing himself to serve in the US Senate because he believes he could not do as much in the US Senate as he could as Governor of Florida. He has also ruled out appointing his wife, Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis.

He could also appoint Lt. Governor Jeanette Nunez given she, like Moody, has proven a loyal DeSantis ally. I think DeSantis loyalists Uthmeier, Nunez or Moody are likely the leading contenders as choosing someone to improve relations with Trump is unlikely to have any beneficial effect for him given Vance is already Trump’s chosen successor. If I had to guess, I would say he most likely appoints Uthmeier and runs for US Senate in 2026 when his term as Governor expires so he can boast of serving as Governor as well as in the US House and Senate when he runs for President in 2028.

Politico reports that “Two people close to the governor previously told POLITICO that he would likely look to Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez, Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody, former Florida House Speaker Jose Oliva or chief of staff James Uthmeier as possible replacements. One of those people — who was granted anonymity to discuss the governor’s decision-making — told POLITICO after news broke of Rubio’s ascension the thinking remains unchanged. A veteran GOP Florida operative, similarly granted anonymity to discuss internal dynamics, said Tuesday they would be “shocked” if Uthmeier — who is currently in Italy with DeSantis on a trade mission — didn’t get the post.”

How will Trump’s Election and Cabinet Picks Effect Increasing Conflicts with Russia and China?

Russian President Vladmir Putin congratulated President Trump on his re-election victory calling him a courageous leader saying he is ready to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. Although Putin endorsed Kamala Harris for President, he likely prefers Trump as Putin’s number one priority for the past few years has been to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine which he has been unable to do because both Biden and Zelensky have refused to negotiate peace with Russia. That objective happens to coincide exactly with Trump’s pledge to end the war in Ukraine during the first week of his presidency likely along the lines that Vice-President Elect JD Vance has suggested.  Trump has stated he will appoint a Special Envoy to lead negotiations for a compromise peace agreement ending the war in Ukraine. However, such an agreement could take weeks or more likely months to finalize unless Trump insists on agreeing to terms minimally acceptable to Russia, along the lines I have outlined previously, shortly after he is inaugurated in which case a peace deal could likely be finalized directly with Russia without Ukrainian participation within a week.

President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin shaking hands during a summit meeting several years ago. Trump was reluctant to engage with Putin during his first term due to the Trump-Russia collusion hoax but now will likely feel free to proceed with his pledge to sign a peace deal with Putin ending the war in Ukraine.

The leaked neocon Kellogg-Fleitz peace plan calling for a permanent cease-fire along the current line of control, NATO troops in Ukraine patrolling the DMZ, and a twenty-year moratorium on NATO membership while the US continues to arm Ukraine to the teeth. This plan is an absolute non-starter for Russian President Vladimir Putin. He is unlikely to agree to a cease-fire if the Trump administration opts to push such unfavorable terms for Russia.  Vice President-Elect JD Vance’s Ukraine war peace plan on the other hand, which provides for Ukraine neutrality and a permanent end to the war along the current lines of control with a demilitarized zone, is something Russia might be able to accept assuming it includes a full withdrawal of all NATO troops and bases, including CIA spy bases from Ukraine as well as Ukraine’s demilitarization along the lines tentatively agreed to by Russia and Ukraine under the Istanbul Agreement of March-April 2022 at a time Russia had partially surrounded Kyiv.

During a Stimson Center webinar yesterday, Kelly Grieco, Senior Fellow with their Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program, predicted that Trump would follow the neocon peace plan so he wouldn’t be viewed as having lost Ukraine given the fact that Democrats are guaranteed to blame him for losing the war in Ukraine if the war ends on terms minimally acceptable to the Russian Federation. But since that plan is unacceptable to Russia, it would just serve to prolong the war indefinitely and Trump would likely revise it in Russia’s favor to end the conflict within a few months of taking office.  

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appears to be going all out to start World War Three between NATO and Russia before Trump takes office by launching the largest ever Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden has approved the use of US defense contractors to be sent to  Ukraine near the frontline. Provoking a direct war with Russia that would be all but guaranteed to escalate to the nuclear level is not in the US national security interest. As I have written, pushing America's liberal empire on Ukraine has been very destabilizing for world peace as it caused Russia to fight an existential and largely defensive war to prevent Ukraine from becoming a full-fledged NATO member state. Whenever we fight imperial wars to expand our liberal empire, we cause new crisis and destabilize entire regions of the world that otherwise would be far more stable as Ukraine was with Putin’s Russia from 1999-2014 before the Biden authorized coup that overthrew Ukraine's democratically elected President with a handpicked puppet President committed to NATO membership.

The irony is not even the Biden regime wanted Ukraine in NATO, but they did want Russia to invade Ukraine to make it far more of US imperial dependency while Russia has been fighting to make Ukraine neutral, sovereign and independent once more so in that sense at least it's been mission accomplished for the Biden imperialist regime. In short, Biden’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine has weakened the US and its NATO allies, destroyed much of Ukraine and has served to greatly strengthen our enemy alliance particularly Russia which has a military that hasn’t been this strong for three decades. Biden and the neocons have succeeded in putting the US last and making Russia great again! Neo-imperialists in both parties reportedly fear that Trump may attempt to pull the US out of the NATO military alliance. That one action, if combined with a cut off of all US weapons to Ukraine, would entirely eliminate the chance of war with Russia.

Wars don't originate in a vacuum. When we deploy our military forces and ally with nations all along Russia’s and China's borders to encircle then and provoke them to attack us, we should not feign surprise when they actually do, and we end up losing a quarter billion Americans to a massive cyber and super EMP attack. If we were to engage in diplomacy with them to resolve disputes peacefully, we would not now be at risk of nuclear annihilation. Wars are rarely inevitable. Both world wars were entirely avertable particularly World War II by any western leader with strategic vision like America First President Herbert Hoover and others. Likewise, World War Three would be easily avertable by a bold courageous President who implemented my proposals for peace.

I believe that China's planned blockade of Taiwan is ultimately undeterrable. Xi Jinping has stated his regime on reunification. It's been China's main goal since 1949 and now that they have a nuclear arsenal and armed forces superior to our own, they know they can accomplish their goal of realizing it by next year. They will do so regardless of how the Ukraine war ends. They will do so especially if it does not end soon as they have successfully used our foolish involvement in the war to gravely weaken us militarily. The longer we fight it the better for them. Biden has fallen right into China's trap of fighting the war in Ukraine indefinitely. Continuation of the war also has forced Russia to become even more dependent on its Chinese ally.

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday extended congratulations to Donald Trump on his election as president of the United States, urging the two countries to find the right way to get along in the new era. Xi called for the two countries to strengthen dialogue and communication, properly manage differences, and expand mutually beneficial cooperation. "China has always been consistent in its policy toward the U.S. and will continue to view and handle China-U.S. relations in accordance with the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters the day after the election.

On November 7^th, I warned: “China's comments in response to Trump's election appear to perceive that they can negotiate "a win-win" solution with Trump over Taiwan. Their latest statement talked about negotiating diplomatic solutions which should be music to Trump's ears, but if they don't really believe that they might blockade Taiwan in December or mid-January just before the Biden-Trump transition and if Trump appoints a bunch of neocon Cabinet officials as he did last time as seems likely, it’s not inconceivable they might succeed in pushing him into an all-out war with the PRC he does not want to fight.” 

Trump’s neocon Cabinet picks may make Chinese President Xi Jinping paranoid about Trumps intentions and cause him to believe that “win-win” diplomatic negotiations and cooperation with the incoming Trump administration is likely impossible and that China must engage in a major show of force with regards to Taiwan.

If the US goes to war with China over Taiwan, the one thing we can bank on is that China would likely succeed in sending the Seventh Fleet to the bottom of the Pacific. There are many reasons for this including Chinas 1,500 plus antiship missiles most of which are hypersonic and the fact that the PLA Navy massively outnumbers us in terms of warships in the Western Pacific and “rules the waves all the way out to the Second Island Chain” according to CAPT James Fanell (USN Ret.) the former Director of Intelligence for the US Pacific Fleet. Are we prepared to give China naval supremacy over the Pacific Ocean?

The good news is there is that Trump is unlikely to risk a military conflict with China over Taiwan unless he heeds the counsel of Rubio, Waltz, Stefanik and Ratcliffe to go to war with the PRC. After the blockade begins, he would likely negotiate a deal on reunification with Beijing which would probably be supported by Gabbard, Musk, Ramaswamy, Gaetz and likely Hagseth—all of whom will be Cabinet members with Musk reportedly having outsized influence on foreign policy issues like Ukraine. Trump even had Musk join a phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky after his election victory. Musk is the only Cabinet member appointed by Trump who has gone public with his support for a proposal for Taiwan to peacefully reunify with the PRC and become a Special Administrative Zone under the “One Country Two Systems” model allowing Taiwan to maintain its self-rule to avoid World War Three. I have published a more detailed proposal that would be more favorable to Taiwan.

Hopefully, China understands that, given his past statements, Trump is unlikely to defend Taiwan militarily and doesn’t pre-emptively strike the US with a massive cyberattack against the US homeland. This is something we must not allow to happen to ensure our very national survival. President-Elect Trump must be clear that he looks forward to working with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the interests of peaceful co-existence with an eye to avoiding military conflict with the PRC by prioritizing peaceful diplomatic negotiated solutions.

Hopefully, Chinese leaders understand from Trump’s statements that he would almost assuredly not defend Taiwan militarily because his overriding focus is to avoid the outbreak of World War Three, prevent nuclear war and ensure America’s survival with negotiated peace deals over Ukraine and presumably even Taiwan in the event China initiates a blockade during the next few to several months. However, if not, America might be in trouble.

© David T. Pyne 2024

David T. Pyne, Esq. is a former U.S. Army combat arms and Headquarters staff officer, who was in charge of armaments cooperation with the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the Americas from 2000-2003, with an M.A. in National Security Studies from Georgetown University. He is the former President and current Deputy Executive Director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security. He also serves as a member of the Committee on the Present Danger-China. He recently served as Defense and Foreign Policy Advisor to former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. He has also co-authored the best-selling new book, “Catastrophe Now--America’s Last Chance to Avoid an EMP Disaster” and his new book “Restoring Strategic Deterrence” will be published in December 2024. He serves as the Editor of “The Real War” newsletter at dpyne.substack.com and previously served as a contributor to “The National Interest”. Here is a link to his interview archive. He may be reached at emptaskforce.ut@gmail.com.

Recent Interviews

October 15th—Interview with Jon Twitchell on Talk with Jon on KTALK AM 1640 to discuss the rumored threats of largescale Iranian and Chinese cyberattacks targeting US critical infrastructure designed to disrupt the November 5th presidential election. Here is the link to the interview.

October 23rd—Interview with Brannon Howse to discuss the explosion of the Boeing communications satellite that was likely a test run for a massive Chinese counterspace attack on US satellites if Biden defends Taiwan militarily. We will also discuss the risks that the November 5th presidential election will be disputed and my assessment that the Biden-Harris regime will throw President Trump in prison on November 18th whether he wins or loses. Here is a link to the interview.

October 30th—Interview with Dave Saunders on the Mormon Renegade podcast to discuss the likely outcome of the 2024 presidential election and how Trump and Harris would pursue different policies regarding the war in Ukraine, China’s planned blockade of Taiwan and direct military strikes between Israel and Iran. We also discussed the chances of all three of those conflicts pulling in the US, Russia and China and escalating to a Third World War.

November 5th—Served on a panel of political and national security experts by Brannon Howse on the Worldview Weekend Hour Show to discuss the likely outcome of the election and Democrat efforts to steal the presidential and congressional elections.

November 7th—Interview on on the Worldview Weekend Hour Show by Col. Rob Manass (USAF Ret.) to discuss President Trump’s election victory and how his election will affect Biden’s war in Ukraine, Israel’s war in the Middle East and China’s plans to blockade Taiwan during the next few months.

November 8th—Interview with Holly Crowley-Rabanne and Jared Anderson to discuss President-Elect Trump’s landslide election victory, potential Democrat attempts to prevent him from taking office and the future of America under a Trump presidency.

November 12th—Panel Interview with Jon Twitchell on Main Street Radio to discuss Trump’s Cabinet picks, the prospects for the success of his America First conservative agenda and the likely effect of his Presidency on the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and China’s plan to blockade Taiwan. Here is a link to the interview.