Russia's Victory Day Military Parade Showcases Unprecedented Solidarity of the Sino-Russian Military Alliance

Biden's war in Ukraine has succeeded in pushing the world's two most powerful nuclear superpowers into a much closer "no-limits partnership" posing an existential threat to the United States.

Chinese President Xi Jinping sat next to Russian President Vladimir Putin during the entirety of the Victory Day military parade and they were seen speaking on several occasions.

Russia’s Victory Day parade, commemorating the 80^th anniversary of the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany, was a stunning spectacle that highlighted the growing strength and unprecedented unity of the Sino-Russian military alliance which today encompasses seventy-one percent of the Eurasian landmass, forty-three percent of the world’s population and thirty-one percent of its Gross Domestic Product with a combined nuclear arsenal and defense industrial base far exceeding those of the Western alliance. This provided a stark contrast to the NATO alliance, which now seems more fractured than ever before over whether to continue Biden’s war in Ukraine, months after he has left office. On one side there is a minority faction of NATO members who continue to align with the US and sewk to end the war with a peaceful diplomatic agreement. On the other side is a majority faction who follow the lead of the EU whose leaders are continually working to frustrate and sabotage US foreign policy objectives, hellbent on continuing the war indefinitely even if it provokes a nuclear war with Russia.

There were twenty-seven heads of state in attendance notably including Slovakia which is both a NATO member and was a member of the Axis Powers that contributed tens of thousands of troops as part of Hitler’s international coalition to roll back the Soviets to the fringes of Europe. At least one other NATO and former Axis member head of state, Victor Orban, of Hungary wanted to attend but felt compelled to give in to tremendous pressure by EU Politburo leaders not to. The nations who sent their heads of state to participate included the PRC, Brazil, Slovakia, Serbia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burkina Faso, Congo, Cuba, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Guinea Bissau, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Palestine, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Vietnam, and Zimbabwe. All former Soviet heads of state were in attendance except for the ones from the three Baltic republics, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia.

While North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un did not personally attend, five North Korean generals were present including two Colonel Generals one of whom was Colonel General Ri Chang H. who serves as Director of the Reconnaissance General Bureau [RGB] and as a Vice Chief of the Korean People’s Army [KPA] General Staff. The other was Colonel General Kim Yong Bok, whom Putin warmly embraced, who serves as the commander of an estimated force of 10,000-12,000 Korean People’s Army troops that helped liberate Kursk from Ukrainian occupation and who Russia has said may join Russian forces in their ongoing invasion of Sumy oblast. General Kim serves as both a Deputy Chief of the Army’s General Staff, as well as commander of North Korea’s Special Operations Forces, which is the largest in the world with an estimated 200,000 troops according to the Wall Street Journal. He also oversees the KPA’s 11^th Army Corps, nicknamed “the Storm Corps” consisting entirely of elite Special Operation Forces of which four brigades have been sent to fight alongside Russian troops on the front line.

The fact that Kim Jong Un would send North Korea’s third highest North Korean military official to personally command North Korea’s troops in the Ukraine theater over the past six months indicates just how highly he prizes his alliance with Russia. In exchange for weapons and troops, North Korea has received valuable technical assistance from Russia for its nuclear and missile programs. While the Biden administration pointed to the inclusion of North Korean troops in the war as suggesting that Russia is somehow short of troops to fight and win its ongoing war in Ukraine, nothing could be further from the truth as I will explain later in this article. In fact, it was Kim Jong Un’s idea to send troops to fight with Russia to gain valuable battlefield experience in the event the US opts to defend Taiwan militarily causing Chinese President Xi Jinping to give Kim permission to invade South Korea. Last month, Ukraine reported capturing two Chinese soldiers who were fighting for Russia and claimed there were 155 others deployed alongside Moscow’s forces.

Troops belonging to thirteen other nations including Azerbaijan, Belarus, China, Egypt, Laos, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Myanmar, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam marched in the parade celebrating the Russian-led victory over Nazi Germany. China sent their PLA Honor Guard to participate in the Victory Day parade last weekend. Russian President Vladimir Putin was very gracious in thanking every member of the Soviet-allied coalition, notably including its junior partners in the war--the US, the UK and France--which he invited to attend but which in the case of the UK and the EU banned Russia and Belarus from sending representatives to participate or attend their victory day parades. Unlike Russia’s last Victory Day parade which featured only one elderly T-34/85 tank, this parade featured nearly a division size formation with 11,000 Russian troops and dozens if not hundreds of Russia’s most advanced main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, self-propelled artillery and mobile strategic nuclear missiles. It was reminiscent of Soviet-era Victory Day parades and a recent Chinese miliary parade commemorating the 75^th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China.

Russian T-90M tank company rolls by Russian and Russian-allied foreign leaders showcasing Russia’s most advanced mass production main battle tank.

If you count India, whose head of state Prime Minister Modi cancelled his planned attendance due to the recent Indo-Pakistan border clash, the heads of state in attendance including the People Republic of China, represented approximately half of the population of the world. By contrast, the Western alliance that is sanctioning Russia, arming Ukraine or fighting a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine consists of only fifteen percent of the world’s nation and people. The other eighty-five percent of the world’s nations have refused to sanction Russia over its invasion of Ukraine understanding that it was provoked into doing so in what was essentially a preventive and largely defensive war. Biden’s principal stated foreign policy objectives which were to isolate Russia diplomatically and economically and weaken it both economically and militarily following its invasion of Ukraine have thus been proved to be a complete and total failure. Since the war began, Russia has surged from the 6^th largest economy in the world to the 4^th largest economy in the world by Purchase Power Parity with a larger military than the US despite the fact it only has a population only 43 percent as large.

Taken together, these developments strongly suggest that if there were such a thing as a US-led rules-based Liberal International Order before the war, it died with Biden’s decision to deliberately provoke Russia to invade Ukraine pushing Russia and China into a much closer military alliance than ever before that Putin and Xi have described as a “no limits partnership” greater than an alliance. China has not only provided arms to Russia to help it fight the war in Ukraine but has provided it with a massive amount of defense industrial materials on a scale reminiscent of US Lend Lease to the Soviet Union during World War Two. While in Moscow, President Xi joined President Putin in signing several strategic cooperation agreements between Russia and China underscoring the missed opportunity by the Trump administration in failing to end the war in Ukraine as promised and establish a geostrategic partnership for peace with Moscow to neutralize its military alliance with Beijing. Had he succeeded in doing that, it might have been President Trump signing strategic cooperative agreements with Russia instead of President Xi.

Both the US and Russia Promote their own Nationalistic World War Two Mythology

During his speech, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared, "Truth and justice are on our side," he said, insisting that "the "entire country, society and people support the participants" of the Ukraine war. He added that their determination and bravery has “brought us only victory.” “The presence of world leaders demonstrated that Western efforts to isolate him and defeat Russia have failed,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “It is positioning of Russia as an important part of the world.” The victory of the Soviet Union in World War II has always been an important part of the country’s national identity, but under Putin, it has been become pivotal, with the Kremlin now equating Ukraine to Nazis.

Much like the US and the West has done with regards to World War Two, Putin has used Russia’s glorious victory over Nazi Germany during the war as a mythology to promote its national ethos as a means of further unifying Russian citizens behind what it views as an existential war for Russia in attempting to rollback NATO’s de facto expansion into Ukraine by invoking a comparison to what Russia has long referred to as “the Great Patriotic War.”

As Time magazine noted:

The Russian President has long made the veneration of World War II the central tenet of Russia’s national idea. Starting from 2010, he centralized Russia’s sole role in “saving the world from fascism,” while simultaneously declaring that Russia would have defeated Nazi Germany even without Ukraine.

In proclaiming May 8^th as “Victory Day for World War Two,” President Trump stated last week that Nazi Germany could not have been defeated without US participation in World War Two even though 80% of German casualties were on the Eastern Front. President Donald Trump declared: “We won both [World] Wars, nobody was close to us in terms of strength, bravery, or military brilliance.” “Many of our allies and friends celebrate May 8 as Victory Day, but we did more to win the Second World War than any other country — incomparably more.” "We won two world wars, but we never took credit for it…The victory was won only thanks to us," he stressed. Certainly, the Allies could not have won the First World War without the US.

President Trump seen here a couple of days before announcing May 8th, previously known as Victory in Europe or “VE Day” as “Victory Day for World War Two.”

However, in the case of the Second World War, both Putin and Trump have facts on their side to support their claims that each of their respective countries’ contributions were the most decisive in defeating Nazi Germany. While Trump’s boast has been dismissed out of hand, he may be closer to the truth than most people realize. In fact, it might have taken the Soviets years longer to defeat Nazi Germany without US Lend Lease and they might not have defeated the Germans at all because, as Stalin noted, 70% of all Soviet tank, armored fighting vehicle and combat aircraft production was thanks to military industrial materials provided it by the US via Lend Lease shipments. Without it the Soviets would have been unable to replace their tank losses and would have been unable to engage in any major mobile counteroffensives against the Germans during World War Two given the Germans destroyed four Soviet tanks to every one they lost. That means that without Lend Lease to the USSR, the US and UK might have succeeded in liberating all of Europe to the Soviet 1938 border, not just six Western European countries and Greece as in actual history.

Many soldiers fought honorably but many did not. All major powers except for Italy committed horrific war crimes during the conflict especially the Soviets and the Germans. Stalin claimed the Germans killed only seven million including five million Soviet soldiers and two million civilians which were the official Soviet death figures from 1945-1963 and which are likely closer to the truth than later estimates. Then, the Soviets changed the total Soviet death numbers to 26.6 million claiming the Germans were responsible for the death of every Soviet citizen from 1939-1945 including those who died from starvation during the conflict, in an attempt to whitewash the crimes of Soviet dictator Josef Stalin against the Soviet people. The most likely reason that Stalin did not want to draw attention to these additional 19.6 million estimated Soviet deaths is because he, himself, was responsible for them. It was likely Stalin, not Hitler who likely killed or starved to death these nearly twenty million Soviet citizens, most of whom were not Russian, but citizens from the non-Russian captive nations including parts of nine Eastern European nations fully annexed or partially annexed because of Soviet aggression during the war.

Even the Soviet historians responsible for providing these figures have stated that between 9-10 million of the total estimated Soviet war dead were due to the worsening of life conditions in the entire USSR, including the region that was not occupied (i.e. Soviet territory under Stalin’s control not Hitler’s). How could Germany be responsible for the deaths of Soviet civilians outside the zones of its control when it was not able to engage in either a starvation blockade or terror bombing campaign against the USSR as the Western allies conducted against Germany? Stalin even killed most of the Soviet POWs who were returned to the USSR as under Soviet law the penalty for surrender was death. The Soviets didn’t actually “liberate” central and Eastern Europe, much if not most of which was allied with Nazi Germany against it. Rather, Stalin used the mighty Red Army to conquer and enslave it for nearly half a century.

As noted in a recent article written by Antony Beevor in Foreign Affairs, in 1944 Stalin ordered plans drawn up for the Red Army to invade France, Denmark and Italy and seize the straits between Denmark and Norway. Shortly after the war in 1945, he lamented how the advance of the Red Army was stopped along the Elbe River and failed to capture Paris as he had previously ordered them to do.

Beevor wrote:

“It must be very pleasant for you to be in Berlin now after all your country has suffered,” Averell Harriman, the U.S. ambassador to the Soviet Union, remarked to Stalin during a break in the talks. Stalin eyed the ambassador without changing his expression. “Tsar Alexander went all the way to Paris,” he replied. The line was hardly a joke—the year before, the Soviet leadership had ordered plans to be drawn for an invasion of France and Italy and a seizure of the straits between Denmark and Norway. In 1945, Soviet General Sergei Shtemenko told Sergo Beria, whose father had been a feared Soviet secret police chief during the Stalin era, “It was expected that the Americans would abandon a Europe fallen into chaos, while Britain and France would be paralyzed by their colonial problems.” This, Soviet leaders thought, created an opening. Only on learning that the United States was close to building the atom bomb were the plans abandoned—even if Moscow’s appetite for expansion was not.”

Soviet dictator Josef Stalin seated on the right side of the photo alongside British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. The US and UK engaged in an unholy alliance with the most murderous dictator in world history to defeat the second most murderous dictator, helping him Communize nearly two-thirds of continental Europe in the process.

Just imagine if Stalin had got his way and had succeeded in conquering all the capitals of continental Europe including Paris and Rome along with the English Channel ports. Would the Western Allies have still considered the Second World War to be a victory if he had? Would there have been a Cold War if a US and UK military presence on the continent had been limited, to Turkey, Portugal, Greece and Norway? The Soviets didn’t actually “liberate” any countries. They conquered them and exported Communism to every nation they conquered transforming them into compliant Soviet satellite states.

Zelensky Challenges Putin to Meet Him in Istanbul to Negotiate a Peace Deal

While signing an order designating May 8^th as “Victory Day for World War Two,” Trump stated "I remain steadfastly devoted to stopping the years of endless foreign wars and preventing the further loss of lives. As I stated during my Inaugural Address, we will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars we end — and my proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker." His statement indicates that even though his administration stated that it has abandoned any active efforts to mediate a peace deal with Russia and Ukraine, he would still like to see the two warring parties meet to negotiate an end to the conflict. In response to Trump’s call for peace, Zelensky and the leaders of the UK, France, Germany and Poland issued Russia an ultimatum to begin a thirty-day cease-fire by May 12^th or face major additional economic sanctions, claiming they had the support of President Trump in issuing their threat to Moscow.

As I noted in a previous article, the idea that you can’t negotiate an end to a war without a cease-fire is absurd and is contradicted by the historical record of most major modern wars. If two parties can negotiate the terms of a cease-fire while fighting is underway, then they can just as easily negotiate the terms of a final peace agreement while fighting continues. Furthermore, Russia has a lot of incentives to refuse even a temporary cease-fire given that the UK and France have threatened to send tens of thousands of “peacekeeping troops” into Ukraine as soon as a cease-fire has been agreed upon, which Russia has warned it would consider to be “an act of war” that would result in Russia attacking those NATO troops potentially leading to the outbreak of World War Three.

Putin responded by offering to meet a Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul on May 15^th without preconditions to negotiate a permanent cease-fire with Ukraine. Putin has offered to negotiate an end to the war with Ukraine continuously since the day after Russia invaded Ukraine over three years ago. In fact, Russia actually did negotiate a permanent cease-fire with Ukraine on May 29, 2022, that was scheduled to go into effect on April 9, 2022, but Zelensky decided to repudiate the Istanbul agreement and ban all future peace negotiations with Russia. Zelensky immediately rejected Putin’s offer to negotiate a peace deal unless Russia first implemented a thirty-day cease fire, but then quickly backtracked after Trump posted on Truth Social praising Putin for his peace offer and encouraged Zelensky to send a delegation to meet with the Russians.

Then, Zelenskiy offered to meet Putin in Istanbul on Thursday. However, this is yet another Zelensky PR gambit. He has proven neither he nor his EU backers have any desire to negotiate an end to the unnecessary and senseless war in Ukraine. Assuming he even goes to Istanbul given the fact that his thirty-day cease-fire terms are unacceptable to Moscow, he knows that Putin will not meet with him until Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are close to finalizing a peace deal.

Zelensky says he will only meet with the Russian delegation if Putin comes with them. Likewise, Trump has stated he will only attend if Putin shows up. Both Steve Witkoff and General Keith Kellogg has said they will attend the peace talks. However, the Russians have declared Kellogg persona non grata due to his family business ties with Ukraine and his lifelong record of Russophobia so having him present at the peace table would be a major non-starter for Moscow. However, with the US sending a delegation, the Ukrainians will be pressured to send a delegation as well because if they don’t meet with the Russians then its likely that Zelensky will get the blame from Trump so it will be interesting to see how that turns out. That said, Trump has signed off on a $315 million arms sale to Ukraine, the administration and has just approved the transfer of ATACMS and Patriot missiles from Germany to Ukraine so the idea that the US can serve as the mediator to end a conflict it was responsible for starting and continues to stoke by providing ongoing military and intelligence is in serious question.

Why Russia is guaranteed to win any war of attrition with Ukraine

Back in March, Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared, “Both sides need to come to an understanding that there’s no ­military solution” to the war in Ukraine. However, recently released and increasingly asymmetric casualty figures suggest that statement may be misleading. During a press conference on May 5^th, President Trump stated, “You're going to be very disappointed when you find out the real number of people that were killed. It's far greater. Many times greater I believe but far greater than the numbers you are putting out."

Ukraine continues to massively exaggerate their estimates of Russian military casualties while underestimating their own casualties by a factor of seventeen to mislead their Western allies into believing Ukraine is winning instead of being on the verge of military collapse as is actually the case. Zelensky recently claimed Ukraine has lost only 43,000 dead soldiers when in fact they have suffered over two million casualties including 750,000 killed in action which explains why some Ukrainian motor rifle battalions don't have enough infantry to fill a single BMP-2 infantry combat vehicle while the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Russian forces outnumber Ukraine by five to one along most sections of the Eastern Front. Ukraine is desperately short of infantry to man the trenches contradicting Zelensky’s recent claim that Ukrainian troops outnumber Russian forces by a factor of 1.5 to 1. Ukraine had up to 50,000 amputees after 17 months of war. Now it likely has up to 100,000 amputees after thirty-six months of war, which would constitute a far greater number than any nation suffered during World War One including Germany which had 67,000 amputees.

Russian army and Russian separatist forces have lost 118,000 troops killed in action since the war began for a total of 295,000 casualties to date according to Meduza. While Ukraine claims it has lost only 43,000 troops killed in action (KIA) since the war began, as Trump suggested its actual losses have been far more massive and devastating than previously reported. Russia is losing over 3,000 KIA per month. Russia has been recruiting up to 1,400 volunteers a day or nearly 43,000 volunteers a month meaning with every passing month the Russian army is growing by nearly 40,000 troops although not all new Russian volunteer soldiers are being sent to fight in Ukraine.

The Jamestown Foundation estimates Ukraine has suffered permanent losses of approximately 1.5 million troops including 750,000 dead and 750,000 severely wounded with another 400,000-600,000 wounded recovering in hospitals for a total of over 2 million casualties since the war began. If true, this would mean that Ukraine’s casualties are at least 6.3 times higher than Russia’s and that Ukraine is suffering over 39,000 permanent losses a month supporting the assertion by Ukrainian Army Commander in Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi that the intake of 30,000 new draftees a month is not sufficient to replace battlefield casualties. This adverse casualty exchange rate for Ukraine vis a vis Russia means that Russia’s army is growing stronger every month while Ukraine’s is growing smaller. This, despite the fact that Ukraine is offering 18–24-year-old men and women a large financial bonus for joining in a program that has reportedly yielded only 500 volunteers during its first three months.

The main reason for Russia’s favorable rate of exchange in terms of combat casualties is Russia’s supremacy in terms of airpower, artillery, missiles and munitions which at times has been 10 to 1 enabling them to pummel Ukrainian troops all along the frontline. Russian forces continue to seize new territory with every passing day while Ukraine continues to lose territory forced to press gang Ukrainian men to fill their increasingly depleted ranks. As a result, Ukrainian troop morale continues to pummel while Russian troop morale continues to increase as the war becomes increasingly more popular in the knowledge that ultimate Russian victory is assured.

It is not difficult to see which country is going to win the ongoing war of attrition in Ukraine as the war continues to bleed the Ukrainian army dry as Ukraine’s reserves have already been exhausted while the Russians have a population that is five times greater with up to 20 million military age men available to mobilize for war according to the Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Oleksandr Syrskyi. The fact that Ukraine is coming perilously close to exhausting its reserves means that it doesn’t have any troops to relieve existing combat units and rotate to the front lines.

This means that Ukrainian army units typically fight until they are decimated down to ten percent or less end strength which is why we have had reports of multiple Ukrainian battalions being commanded by Senior Lieutenants because they have been reduced to platoon size. Furthermore, we have had reports of new “elite” Ukrainian brigades with the most modern Western equipment consisting almost entirely of recruits deserting before they even reach the front. On the other hand, Russian units are typically rotated out of the line of contract within four months with experienced veteran troops being transferred to newly created Russian army units. They are recruiting contract soldiers/volunteers at an increasing rate above their requirements thanks to Russia offering new recruits up to four million rubles which equates to a $40,000 sign up bonus. Moscow is reportedly sending most of its new equipment and tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of new volunteer soldiers to newly created divisions along its border with NATO rather than to Ukraine indicating Putin believes Russia has sufficient numbers of troops to win the war already. Russia also mobilized another 160,000 conscripts in their biannual draft earlier this year. These conscripts could be deployed along NATO’s borders but by law cannot be sent into a war zone such as Ukraine.

To put these losses in perspective, nearly five percent of Ukraine’s prewar population has been killed, maimed or wounded in battle to date thanks to Zelensky’s decision to reject Putin’s April 2022 offer to withdraw Russian troops from all of Ukraine’s prewar-controlled territory in exchange for Ukraine’s neutrality and partial demilitarization. Meanwhile, Russia has only lost 0.2% of its population killed or wounded battle—a combat ratio nearly 25 times lower. Russia is not just winning its war of attrition against Ukraine, it is completely decimating the Ukrainian army and, along with it, two generations of Ukrainian men.

Even some Ukrainian generals are warning Ukraine’s military may be on the verge of collapsing later this year without a major increase in US military support and a mandatory draft of Ukrainian men ages 18-24. However, the West has largely run out of weapons to send to Ukraine with some NATO armies currently deemed non-mission capable (i.e. unable to fight a war) and are thus unable to provide Ukraine with sufficient weapons and munitions to sustain their war effort against Russia. Meanwhile, Russia is mass producing weapons and ammunition at a rate four times greater than all of NATO combined whereas except for drone production where Ukraine has been building up to 200,000 a month, Ukraine has been highly dependent upon Western arms shipments to equip their army units. Without Starlink access, Ukraine’s drone army would be deactivated apart from the newer ones that utilize fiber optic cables.

NATO Supreme Commander General Chris Cavoli pointing out Russia’s massive advantage over NATO in terms of major arms and ammunition production. (Photo courtesy of the “Daniel Davis Deep Dive” podcast)

Gordon Hahn published an article exposing how close Ukraine is to suffering a military collapse underscoring the importance of Trump imposing a cease-fire as soon as possible given it is the only hope we have to save Ukraine. "The front may suffer a catastrophic collapse before Trump’s presumed deadline, giving Russia an even greater upper hand in talks. The collapse of Ukraine’s defense fronts along all or nearly the entire line of combat – which stretches from Kherson just north of Crimea to the east, then north through Donetsk to Kharkiv and Sumy – appears imminent. Some fronts may hold longer but are unlikely to survive 2025. All last year, Russian territorial gains and, for the most part of the year, Ukrainian casualties have increased with each passing month, as I predicted would be the case over a year ago. The territorial advance now is accelerating at an ever more rapid pace and could lead to major breakthroughs to the Dnepr (Dnieper) River at any time now. At the same time, the state off the Ukrainian military is disastrous."

The Rising Threat of Nuclear War

There has been a rising threat of potential nuclear conflicts across the globe in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and most recently in South Asia. Thankfully, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were successful in negotiating a cease-fire between nuclear powers--India and Pakistan—ending their recent border clash over Indian allegations for Pakistani support for Islamic terrorists that killed 26 Indian civilians in the disputed province of Kashmir.

Furthermore, President Donald Trump’s sixty-day ultimatum to Iran to sign a nuclear deal expires on May 19th so if Trump doesn’t announce an interim nuclear deal with Iran before then, its very possible he could authorize military strikes on Iran, which I and other national security experts have assessed almost certainly already is armed with nuclear weapons, starting a regional war in the Middle East that could last months and bog down US military forces in another unwinnable war. Trump’s Iran ultimatum to dismantle its nuclear weapons program by mid to late May makes it even more imperative that the US negotiate a peace deal with Russia to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible. That is because given Russia’s warnings that US bombings of Iranian nuclear sites would lead to “uncontrolled global catastrophe,” such a bombing campaign against Iran would almost certainly blow-up US peace talks with Russia and cause Putin to decide to engage in a massive spring offensive to force Ukraine to capitulate instead.

Fortunately, there is evidence that Trump has called off the planned US bombing strike against Iran. The first time was in early April when a briefing by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard persuaded Trump to reject a plan by former National Security Advisor Mike Waltz for the US to join Israel in a massive, sustained one-week long bombing campaign against Iran warning that it would result in a major, protracted regional conflict. Gabbard was reportedly supported in her arguments by Vice President JD Vance, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Then, last week, the US withdrew six B-2 bombers, which alone can carry GBU-57 bombs with a limited capability to damage or destroy Iranian nuclear missiles located deep underground, from Diego Garcia suggesting Trump was shelving the idea of bombing Iran, at least for now after stating repeatedly he didn’t want to start a war with the Islamic Republic.

Such a scenario would provide the ideal window of vulnerability for China to begin their long-planned blockade and/or invasion of Taiwan. In my assessment, there is no possible way that Chinese President Xi Jinping could resist attacking Taiwan under those circumstances meaning the outbreak of World War Three could be a few months if not weeks away, the very thing that President Trump has stated he is trying to avert. Meanwhile, two other nuclear powers—India and Pakistan are engaging in military strikes against each other following an Islamist terrorist attack in the Indian occupied part of Kashmir province on April 22^nd which killed twenty-six Indian citizens which India claims was perpetrated by Pakistan creating a potential risk of nuclear escalation in South Asia. President Trump has offered to mediate an end to the conflict.

Western analysts fail to understand why Russia views NATO troops, bases and long-range nuclear-capable F-16 fighter-bombers and missiles in Ukraine as an existential threat. For the past few years, I have been urging US leaders to put themselves in Russia’s shoes and show more strategic empathy for Russia to help them understand why Russia views NATO’s de-facto expansion into Ukraine as a massive threat to Russia’s legitimate security interests. To better understand why Russia thinks that way, a couple of questions must be asked. How many Russian missiles have been fired against NATO member states? The answer is zero. How many NATO missiles have been fired against Russian cities and military bases? The answer is hundreds if not thousands.

How would the US react if Russia overthrew Canada’s Prime Minister replacing him with a Russian puppet leader, allied with Canada, trained and armed it with advanced Russian weapon systems and began firing nuclear-capable missiles at Washington, DC and New York City? The answer. of course, is that virtually any US president would bomb, invade and annex Canada or else employ nuclear weapons against it to eliminate the clear and present threat to US national security. As Dr. John Mearsheimer has stated, the US would react similarly as Russia has with regards to Ukraine if it found itself under the same circumstances.

Not surprisingly, Putin had an interview this past week in which he refused to rule out the use of Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons to defeat Ukraine. The Hill reported:

“During a preview of an interview with Russian state media, which was shared with the Associated Press, Putin said the country has “enough strength and means to bring what was started in 2022 to a logical conclusion with the outcome Russia requires.” When asked about Ukrainian strikes in Russian territory, Putin responded, “There has been no need to use those (nuclear) weapons … and I hope they will not be required.”

The longer the US continues to prolong the war in Ukraine unnecessarily, the greater the chances are that it could end up escalating to a direct war between NATO and Russia or even escalate to the nuclear level if not both. John Ratcliffe, Donald Trump's pick for director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), warned that continued US participation in Russia's war against Ukraine puts the United States at risk of entering into a conflict with a "nuclear power". He stated, "The Russia-Ukraine war rages on, spreading devastation and increasing the risk of the United States being pulled into a conflict with a nuclear power," referring to Russia which according to a leaked Ukrainian Ministry of Defense report has 16,000 nuclear weapons, which amounts to more than seven times more operational nuclear weapons than the US currently possesses.

In the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment, the US intelligence community makes a number of ominous warnings of potential Russian nuclear escalation if the war in Ukraine continues. Is the Trump administration taking into account these risks with their apparent decision to continue fighting Biden’s war in Ukraine indefinitely?

The recently released 2025 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community assessed that Russia may escalate to the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons (which a leaked Ukrainian Ministry of Defense report has estimated numbers 10,0000) against Ukraine if Putin determines that Russia is not achieving its military objectives quickly enough. Given that Russia has fired hundreds if not thousands of nuclear-capable ballistic and cruise missiles at Ukraine since the war began, Zelensky should understand that any one of those incoming Russian missiles could be armed with a nuclear warhead to force Ukraine to capitulate on much harsher Russian terms

The Annual Threat Assessment also warns that Russia may employ its non-strategic nuclear weapons against Ukraine if US peace talks fail which ominously they already have. It states: "Russia's inability to achieve quick and decisive victories on the battlefield, combined with Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, continues to raise concerns that Putin may use nuclear weapons.” According to US intelligence, Moscow maintains an advantage on the battlefield with a prolonged war of attrition that works in favor of the Russian army and "will lead to a gradual but steady erosion of Kyiv’s position on the battlefield, regardless of any U.S. or allied attempts to impose new and greater costs on Moscow."

Putin's recent statement calling for Zelensky to be immediately replaced by an interim Ukrainian President with constitutional legitimacy or else Russia will act to "finish off” Ukrainian troops suggest that might be a possibility. Russia's sub-kiloton battlefield nuclear weapons have immense war-winning potential as they emit zero fallout. However, a single one-kiloton Russian nuclear weapon exploded at night at an altitude of one kilometer over Ukraine's presidential palace would likely suffice to force Zelensky to surrender and at zero cost in terms of Ukrainian civilian deaths. Needless to say, the Trump administration should accelerate peace negotiations with Russia to prevent a potential Russian nuclear escalation in Eastern Europe, that could threaten to expand the conflict beyond Ukraine into a direct war between Russia and NATO. Certainly, the Trump administration understands that even a peace deal that incorporates Russia’s demand for the partial demilitarization of Ukraine would be far preferable than Russian nuclear detonations on Ukrainian soil that could lead to a full nuclear exchange between NATO and the Russian Federation fought over the location of Ukraine’s postwar borders on the farthest fringes of Eastern Europe.

Meanwhile, the UK and France are meeting with Ukrainian leaders to operationalize their plans to deploy 20,000 troops as part of a “Multinational Force Ukraine” along with major air and naval forces in what could very well serve as the trigger for a Third World War between Russia and NATO. Given Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's statement that the US would not go to war to defend NATO troops that came under Russian attack in Ukraine, the US would likely stay out of the fight and European NATO might get wiped out. All over Europe (in Britain, France, Romania, Germany and Turkey in particular) the lights are going out on freedom and democracy. As Vice President JD Vance stated, if EU nations continue to oppose western values based on life, liberty, democracy and free speech the US can do nothing for them and will have no incentive to protect them. The US gets nothing from its alliance with NATO but a massively increased of nuclear annihilation in an unnecessary war with Russia. The sooner we leave NATO the better.

Not too Late to Form a Strategic Partnership for Peace with Russia

As was noted in a recent article in Foreign Policy magazine, the Sino-Russian alliance is much stronger now than it was during the heady days of the Cold War:

The growing strength of Chinese-Russian alignment—and how to counter it—is one of the major issues occupying Western strategic minds. At the highest political level, China and Russia have established regular meetings between their presidents and prime ministers. They have also conducted 18 rounds of strategic security consultations at a high level, most recently in Moscow in 2023, and they run a number of other intergovernmental commissions and working groups. The military ties between the two are now arguably stronger than ever. Since China and Russia first participated in a military exercise together in 2003, they have conducted more than 100 joint military exercises involving land, air, sea, cyber, and paramilitary forces. This level of joint activity across their various services contributes to cement ties.

While Russia would never formally break its alliance with the PRC, if the US were to end all hostilities with Russia by ending all military and intelligence support and withdraw all US personnel from Ukraine, and form a geostrategic partnership with Russia and work cooperatively to resolve international conflicts, it would serve to effectively neutralize Russia’s military alliance with China and revolutionize the balance of power in America’s favor. Such a strategic partnership would include the signing of a strategic framework agreement along the lines I have long been advocating including a few elements from Russia’s draft December 2021 mutual security agreement as well as a major increase in US economic cooperation with Moscow particularly including energy projects and critical rare earths. This could be done even if the Trump administration remained unwilling to threaten a cut off of Ukraine’s Starlink access to compel Zelensky to accept a peace agreement utilizing terms minimally acceptable to Moscow.

Ionut Popescu, an Associate Professor of Political Science at Texas State University, recently published an excellent article in The National Interest, for which I served as a contributor from 2018-2023 in which he expounds upon my 2009 proposal calling for the US to pursue a grand bargain with Russia to get it to break up its alliance with the PRC.

“To accomplish these strategic objectives, the administration is following a second tenet of realism: realpolitik. In the words of nineteenth-century realist English statesman Lord Palmerston, Trump’s country “has no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies… our interests are eternal and perpetual.” As old partnerships lose their relevance, it is equally important to forge new ones, and no geopolitical challenge is thornier for the United States than breaking up the emerging alliance between the second and third great power competitors. Instead of lumping them together as a joint ideological threat, the best approach to break the emerging Russian-Chinese alliance is to adopt a realist Kissingerian strategy of détente with Moscow, the weaker partner, and drive a strategic wedge between them. The first and most urgent step in preventing a Moscow-Beijing axis from solidifying is to achieve a lasting diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis that would leave both Russia and the United States in a place from which future relations could realistically improve. In the longer term, Washington must eventually offer Russia’s leaders enough security guarantees that their “near abroad” sphere of influence on the European flank is secured. Then, Moscow can refocus its energies toward Central Asia and the Far East, China’s backyard, and get Russia to at least a neutral status in the U.S.-China rivalry.”

Indeed, that is exactly the strategy Trump planned to pursue back in 2017 during his first term before the Deep State’s Trump-Russia collusion hoax forced him to delay it eight years. Unfortunately, it appears that Trump has already given up his idea to break up the Sino-Russian alliance by signing a security deal with Ukraine last week and announcing that the US was giving up trying to mediate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.

A New Tripolar Sphere of Influence Agreement Could Prevent World War Three

Russia has repeatedly signaled to the US its openness to the kind of US-Russia geostrategic partnership proposed by the Trump administration to include some kind of sphere of influence which Moscow sometimes refers to as a “Yalta 2.0” but which would be very different from the Yalta appeasement pact of January 1945 in which FDR and Churchill surrendered half of Europe to half a century of Soviet occupation because it would not entail rolling back the boundaries of the NATO alliance by even one inch. Knowing that Trump is focused on the US increasing its control of the North American continent by retaking control of the Panama Canal and seizing control of Greenland, “Putin has now declared that what the US does with Greenland is their business, with many viewing this as a ‘winking’ quid-pro-quo nudge implying Russia will turn a blind eye to the acquisition if US allows Russia to do what it must in Ukraine for its own security reasons.”

My latest proposed tripolar sphere of influence which I first started publishing in 2019 as the key to neutralizing the Sino-Russian military alliance and averting World War Three with Russia and China.

In stating this, Putin is saying that Russia is willing to respect the US right to act as it wishes in its own sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere and NATO in terms of annexing Greenland if the US accepts Russia’s peace terms to end the war in Ukraine including US recognition of continued Russian de facto control over the four Russian annexed oblasts Russia annexed years ago. This amounts to an understanding in which Russia would recognize the Western Hemisphere as part of the US sphere of influence in exchange for the US recognizing the former Soviet republics, including Ukraine, but excluding the three Baltic republics which are NATO member states, as part of Russia’s sphere of influence.

Stacie E. Goddard recently published an interesting article in Foreign Affairs in which she argued in favor of the formation of a global concert of powers modeled on the Concert of Europe which kept the great power peace for nearly a century with the exception of the Crimean War and the Franco-Prussian War which were not lengthy conflicts. She noted that the key component of such a multipolar international order from a Trumpian standpoint would likely be for the US, Russia and the PRC to recognize each other’s spheres of influence in which the US would not seek to overturn Russian annexation of one-fifth of Ukraine or a Chinese takeover of Taiwan and would expect Russia and China not to intervene in a US military takeover of Greenland or the Panama Canal. This is an outstanding idea I first proposed back in 2019 and have been calling for ever since as the key to avert World War Three with Russia and China and one that President Trump should courageously seek to implement to resolve all major potential military conflicts with Moscow and Beijing.

© David T. Pyne 2025

David T. Pyne, Esq. is a former U.S. Army combat arms and Headquarters staff officer, who was in charge of armaments cooperation with the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the Americas from 2000-2003, with an M.A. in National Security Studies from Georgetown University. He is the former President and current Deputy Executive Director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security. He recently served as Defense and Foreign Policy Advisor to former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. He has also co-authored the best-selling new book, “Catastrophe Now--America’s Last Chance to Avoid an EMP Disaster” and his new book “Restoring Strategic Deterrence” will be published in July 2025. He serves as the Editor of “The Real War” newsletter at dpyne.substack.com and previously served as a contributor to “The National Interest”. Here is a link to his interview archive. He also posts multiple times a day on X at @AmericaFirstCon. He may be reached at emptaskforce.ut@gmail.com.

Recent Interviews

April 15th—Interview on Main Street Radio with Jon Twitchell to discuss the latest developments with regards to Trump’s drive to end the war in Ukraine, his threats to bomb a nuclear-armed Iran and potentially start World War Three and the chances that China will blockade Taiwan in April.

April 17th-Interview with Paul Mills on his Off-Grid Desert Farming Podcast to discuss the latest developments regarding the potential outbreak of World War Three with Russia over Ukraine, with China over Taiwan, and with Iran over its continued nuclear weapons production.

April 17th-Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss the recent revelation that JD Vance, Tulsi Gabbard and Pete Hegseth succeeding in persuading President Trump to call off plans for a joint US-Israeli air and missile strike on Iranian nuclear missile sites to avert World War Three.

April 21st—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss ongoing attempts to isolate Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth by firing three of his top loyalists on false charges and try to get Trump to fire him for refusing to support a joint US-Israeli military strikes on a nuclear-armed Iran.

April 28th—Interview with Dr. Maria to discuss the latest updates with regards to Trump’s US peace framework to end the war in Ukraine, whether Putin supports it and the ramifications of Zelensky’s continued refusal to make any concessions likely to result in a permanent cut off of all US military aid to Ukraine.

April 28th—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss Trump’s ten-day ultimatum for Zelensky to accept the US peace framework, the likely cause of the power outages in France, Spain and Portugal, Trump’s threats to bomb Iranian nuclear missile sites and the likelihood of China blockading Taiwan later this year.

May 1st—Interview with LTC Sargis Sangari (USA Ret.) to discuss President Trump’s top trade and foreign policy accomplishments during his first 100 days and potential pitfalls for his policies later this year particularly with regards to a potential war with Iran, ending the war in Ukraine, forming a geostrategic partnership with Russia and hopefully avoiding a complete Chinese takeover of Taiwan.

May 2nd—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss the Trump administration’s decision to end its attempts to mediate peace between Russia and Ukraine, to sign a minerals deal with Ukraine on Zelensky’s terms and to commit to sell arms to Ukraine for the next decade. We will also discuss Trump’s firing of Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor as well and who he will choose to replace him.

May 5th—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss President Trump’s statement that the number of casualties is far greater than what has been reported and the estimates of the Jamestown Center that Ukraine has suffered over two million casualties. We will also discuss Russia’s planned spring/summer offensive and the increasing chances that Trump will bomb Iran.

May 6th—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss President Trump’s announcement of a cease-fire with the Houthis, the Indian missile strikes on Pakistan, the Israeli announcement that they plan to “flatten” and occupy all of Gaza and deport all the Palestinians, Hegseth’s announced retirements of US Army tanks, AFVs, gunships and SP artillery systems and the irrationality of Trump’s planned strikes on Iran.

May 7th—Interview with Nima Alkhorshid on his Dialogue Works podcast to discuss Israel’s plan to permanently occupy all of Gaza and deport 2.3 million Palestinians from their ancestral homeland as well as the signing of Trump’s mineral deal/security pact with Ukraine and his decision to end all US attempts to negotiate peace likely to provoke a massive Russian offensive in Ukraine.

May 7th—Interview with COL Rob Maness (USAF Ret.) on the Rob Maness Show to discuss the latest developments regarding Trump’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine with a new US peace framework, the signing of the new US-Ukraine minerals deal, US war plans against Iran, a potential Chinese blockade of Taiwan and the latest Trump cabinet re-shuffle.

Upcoming Interviews

May 14th—Interview with Dr. Maria to discuss the latest updates with regards to Trump’s US peace framework to end the war in Ukraine, his trip to the Saudi Arabia where he met with Syria’s new former Al Qaeda leader and the prospects for a nuclear deal and avoiding war with Iran.

May 15th—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss the ramifications of President Trump’s trip to the Middle East, the meeting between Russia and Ukraine happening in Istanbul tonight and the idea of insuring passenger jets against nuclear war and EMP attack.

May 20th—Interview on Main Street Radio with Jon Twitchell to discuss the latest developments with regards to Trump’s drive to end the war in Ukraine, his threats to bomb a nuclear-armed Iran and potentially start World War Three and the chances that China will blockade Taiwan early this fall.

May 27th—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss all the latest national security and foreign policy developments with the war in Ukraine and the Middle East.

May 28th—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss Trump’s statements that Putin has gone crazy and is killing a lot of people and is absolutely considering greater sanctions on Russia. We will also discuss how Trump could end the war in a week and the likely reasons why he isn’t.

June 2nd—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Radio to discuss Ukraine’s “Pearl Harbor attack which Ukraine claims damaged or destroyed 34% of Russia’s nuclear bomber fleet and how close we are getting to the outbreak of World War Three as Trump repeats the mistakes of history in continuing to back Zelensky.

June 2nd—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss Ukraine’s “Pearl Harbor attack which Ukraine claims damaged or destroyed 34% of Russia’s nuclear bomber fleet and how close we are getting to the outbreak of World War Three as Trump repeats the mistakes of history in continuing to back Zelensky.

June 2nd—Interview with Dr. Maria on Lindell TV to discuss the latest developments with regards to Russia, Ukraine peace talks, war with Iran and a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

June 5th—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss Dr Peter Pry’s predictions for future national security threats and Russian superweapons along with the latest status of Russia-Ukraine war peace talks.

June 10th—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss the LA riots and the domestic terrorist, cartel and other forces behind them that are trying to create anarchy as well as plan mass protests against Trump on June 14th. We will also discuss the latest develoments with regard to the war in Ukraine and the Iran nuke deal and threats to the US electrical power grid.

June 12th—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss the LA riots and the domestic terrorist, cartel and other forces behind them that are trying to create anarchy as well as plan mass protests against Trump on June 14th. We will also discuss increasing rumors of a a planned massive Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear arsenal and any connection such an attack might have with the riots being planned to take place on June 14h.

June 13th—Interview with Dr. Maria on Lindell TV to discuss the ramifications of a full-scale regional proxy war between the US and Iran that could escalate into World War Three as well as the latest developments with regards to Russia- Ukraine peace talks.

June 13th—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss Israel’s massive bombing campaign against Iran, Trump’s complicity in the attacks and the chances this regional war could escalate to World War Three.

June 16th-Interview on the Mormon Renegade show to discuss Netanyahu’s strikes on Iran and attempt to drag the US into World War Three and the recent transformation of President Donald Trump from an America First conservative into a neocon warmonger.

June 17th—Interview on Main Street Radio with Jon Twitchell to discuss the latest developments with regards to Zelensky’s massive drone strikes which allegedly damaged or destroyed up to 40 Russian nuclear bombers in Siberia in his latest attempt to provoke a Russian nuclear escalation and start World War Three as well as Netanyahu’s strikes on Iran and attempt to drag the US into World War Three.

June 17th—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss the Israeli-Iran War, Trumps statements that the US might enter the war and bomb Iran and the chances it could escalate into World War Three.

June 18th—Interview with Nima Alkhorshid on his Dialogue Works podcast to discuss Trump’s plan to start World War Three with a nuclear-armed Iran that may cause Russia and China to join the fight as well as Trump’s decision to continue fighting Biden’s war against Russia in Ukraine indefinitely.

June 19th—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss reports that Trump has approved attack plans against Iran which could escalate to World War Three and bring in Russia, China and maybe even North Korea.

June 21st—Interview with Brannon Howse on Brannon Howse Live to discuss Trump’s air and missile strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites that could escalate to World War Three.

June 23rd—Interview with COL Rob Maness (USAF Ret) on the Rob Maness show to discuss Trump’s decision to approve plans to attack Iranian nuclear missile sites and start World War Three and Iranian threats to nuke NYC and inflict “irreparable damage on the US if we bomb them.

June 23rd—Interview with Pascal Lottaz on the Neutrality Studies podcast to discuss Trump’s apparent plan to bomb Iran and start World War Three and what he should be doing to avert it. We will also discuss the hostile neocon takeover of the Trump presidency.